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(Bloomberg) — For the first time in more than a decade, Venezuelans are hopeful about getting a chance at democracy.

Voters began lining up at polling stations across the country early Sunday to choose between President Nicolás Maduro, whose 11-year grip on power spanned one of the worst humanitarian and economic crises in modern history, and a candidate who isn’t even on the ballot.

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Former lawmaker María Corina Machado — banned by Maduro’s government from seeking public office — has risen to popularity on calls to dismantle government controls on the economy, privatize the oil industry and reunite families torn apart by the exodus of 7.7 million Venezuelans. That’s culminated in a powerful citizen movement not seen in the country since the late Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s mentor and idol, unseated the political establishment in the late 1990s. 

Machado has endorsed and been campaigning alongside her stand-in candidate, former diplomat Edmundo González, 74, who is facing off against Maduro, 61. 

All eyes will be on the transparency and fairness of the vote, especially after the US reinstated costly sanctions over what it said were violations of a deal for free elections. The presence of small missions from the Carter Center and the United Nations, hundreds of local observers, as well as a network of roughly 30,000 volunteer witnesses, could play a critical role in mitigating the risk of potential tampering. Venezuela withdrew the invitation to observe the vote from a more robust European Union group.

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It’s hard to imagine Maduro ceding power, particularly given the suppression of the opposition party so far and a history of fraudulent elections. One of his biggest challenges will be proving the vote was fair enough to give him legitimacy among his people and the rest of the world. If González wins, the biggest challenge would be orchestrating a peaceful transition of power in a government that’s stacked with Chavista loyalists.

But whoever presides over Venezuela in the next six-year term will have to navigate an economic recovery, secure sanctions relief on oil, the country’s primary export and main source of income, and negotiate a $158 billion debt restructuring. 

Maduro could prevail through a combination of a biased electoral authority, intimidation and voter suppression. The government controls 3 out of 5 directors at the National Electoral Council, most importantly its president, Elvis Amoroso — best known for disqualifying Machado, 56, from public office.

That’s why voter turnout will be crucial, according to Geoff Ramsey, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.

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“An avalanche of votes” would make it “impossible” for the government to tamper, he said. Maduro’s administration could, however, use low voter turnout to its advantage. They could use “ patronage networks and a general climate of intimidation to keep the opposition from turning out.” 

Of Venezuela’s 28 million citizens, more than 21 million are registered to vote, according to electoral authority figures. Turnout is expected to be similar to votes in the 2012 and 2013 presidential elections, when abstention was about 20%. 

A key voting bloc for González, Venezuelans living abroad, will be largely ineligible to participate, leaving about 4.5 million registered voters on the sidelines. Voting absentee is only possible in countries with diplomatic relations with Maduro’s government, and requires successfully updating one’s data in the electoral registry. Those in places like the US or Canada can fly back to vote, but most can’t afford to. 

Unlike other recent elections, Maduro’s face is plastered on posters and billboards around the capital. Some are brightly colored, pop-art portraits of the president. In other instances, photos of students, the elderly and Indigenous people are shown above a message that reads: “Faith in our people, Maduro for president.” 

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Ads for González are rare, in part because of fears of retaliation for printing or putting them up. More than 100 people supporting Machado and González in any way were arrested this year, according to nonprofit Foro Penal.

Voting centers are expected to close around 6 p.m. local time, or until there are no more people waiting in line to cast their ballots. Maduro has reiterated that the electoral authority is expected to announce preliminary results at 10 p.m. 

If the government pulls off a sham election, the loyalty of the armed forces will be key to quashing any protests or crisis that follows. Maduro has dealt out large and profitable sectors of the economy to the military, installing soldiers in key positions at the state oil producer, PDVSA, and empowered defense officials to oversee mining and ports.

Veronica, a Caracas resident who asked to withhold her last name for fear of being targeted by the government, said she was stocking up on essentials to prepare to stay indoors if tensions rise after the vote. 

“The anxiety that is going on in Venezuela is not easy,” said the 22-year-old marketing student. “I am buying cans of tuna, eggs, products that don’t expire quickly, and even candles in case there’s a blackout after the election.” 

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On July 25, the official close of the campaign season, Maduro supporters gathered on the downtown thoroughfare of Bolivar Avenue, where salsa bands played at top volume and vendors strolled around selling snacks and drinks, creating a festive atmosphere. This was the same place Chavez spoke to a packed crown in October 2012, when closing the final presidential campaign before his death from cancer the following year.

Many in the crowd said they were government workers, bused from their offices, clad in Maduro campaign T-shirts, and even given food. Rina, a 26-year-old who asked to withhold her last name for fear of being targeted by the government, was among those who said they were forced to go to the rally but don’t support Maduro’s reelection. 

Others were enthusiastic about the president. “He’s been enduring difficulties since Chavez died,” said Apolinar Espinoza, 65, who works in a government recycling program. “In the good and the bad, he has been there, giving people what he can.”

Almost four miles away, supporters of Machado and González gathered along the sidewalks in Las Mercedes, a bustling neighborhood east of downtown, straining for a glimpse of the opposition duo. As their caravan approached, people started screaming and raising their mobile phones to show family and friends they had patched in on video calls.

Mariana Tales, a 20-year-old nursing student, held a handmade poster that said “the Liberty Tour,” resembling Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour. She said she viewed the septuagenarian González as a kindred spirit of the pop star — and someone whose policies she hoped would enable her family living abroad to return home.

“I just want my relatives, and mostly my dad, to come back,” she said. “I want economic independence. I want regular electricity in my house.”

—With assistance from Alex Vasquez.

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