Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba was in Beijing on July 23-24, for what he called “very deep and concentrated” talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.
It was the first time that Ukraine had reached out to China as a mediator with Russia since Moscow invaded its neighbour in February 2022. Kuleba’s visit came in the middle of a major diplomatic initiative by Ukraine to prepare favourable international conditions for direct talks with the Kremlin.
Kuleba said Ukraine was ready to engage “when Russia is ready to negotiate in good faith,” but “no such readiness is currently observed on the Russian side.”
Wang also said that “conditions and timing are not yet ripe.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Kyiv must surrender the four regions of Ukraine his military partly occupies as a precondition to a ceasefire and talks. He also wants Ukraine to promise never to join the NATO alliance, and reduce the strength of its armed forces.
More than 80 countries joined Ukraine in demanding that Russia respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as a basis for peace negotiations at a conference in Switzerland last month.
Ukraine plans to convene a second peace conference this year and is meanwhile submitting positions on food security, energy and the exchange of prisoners of war for a vote to the UN General Assembly as part of an effort to shore up global support before talks with Russia.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also said he would meet former US President Donald Trump, who is seeking re-election in November. “We agreed with President Trump to discuss at a personal meeting what steps can make peace fair and truly lasting,” he wrote on X.
Trump opposes sending military aid to Ukraine, and last year said he would end the war in 24 hours if he became president.
Part of Ukraine’s drive towards a peace process is dictated by evident fatigue among its allies – the US Congress delayed voting through a $60bn military aid package by six months amid political disagreements. In February, Europe passed a 50-billion-euro ($54bn) military aid agreement that was meant to have been approved in December, overcoming opposition from Hungary and other member states.
Part of the peace drive is also dictated by realities on the ground.
Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii told The Guardian that Russia has 520,000 soldiers on the ground – at least 50,000 more than it had last year – and plans to have 690,000 by the end of the year. Russian forces still enjoy a two-to-one or three-to-one advantage in terms of equipment over Ukrainian forces, he said.
Ukraine is currently able to hold the frontline – Russia has gained only about 550sq km (193sq miles) this year at an exorbitant human and equipment cost – but it is unable to mount a counteroffensive.
Zelenskyy’s war goals have not changed, but he appears to be shifting to the negotiating table to try to achieve those war aims that increasingly appear hard — if not impossible — to win militarily. He told the BBC that Ukraine did not need to win back all its territory by force. “It doesn’t mean that all territories are won back by force. I think the power of diplomacy can help,” he said.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov cautiously welcomed Zelenskyy’s openness to dialogue. He said, “We cannot yet judge what exactly is behind these words, what concrete plans are being talked about.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban also visited Beijing earlier this month, as part of a peace mission that Ukraine and its allies disapproved of.
That may have contributed to a public rift between Kyiv and Budapest on Monday, when Ukraine shut down the Druzhba pipeline that traverses its territory carrying Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
Although officials did not publicly connect Orban’s mission to the pipeline shutdown, it is no secret that Hungarian-Ukrainian relations are poor. In apparent retaliation, Hungary froze transfers from the European Defence Fund, which reimburses member states for their military donations to Ukraine. Among others, that inconveniences Poland, which is waiting for payouts of 2 billion euros ($2.17bn).
The war on the ground
Zelenskyy told European leaders on July 18 that “we have stopped the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv direction,” a new incursion Russia launched on May 11, and satellite imagery confirmed that assertion. Zelenskyy said Russia had suffered 20,000 casualties there.
But Russian forces made marginal advances on the eastern and southern fronts. Most of the activity was in the eastern Donetsk region.
In the area of Avdiivka, which Russian forces captured in February and have been slowly advancing westward from ever since, they marched into the villages of Niu York and Yevhenivka on July 18. On Sunday, they advanced a kilometre (0.6 miles) into the village of Nevelske, and on Monday, drove further into Niu York. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Russian forces overran the village of Novoselivka Persha west of Avdiivka.
To the north of Soledar and Bakhmut, cities Russia captured in January and May last year, and around which they have built out further gradual conquests, Russian forces entered the village of Rozdolivka on Tuesday.
Ukraine’s armed forces said they had abandoned a position in the village of Krynky, on the left bank of the Dnipro in Kherson, after Russian shelling flattened it; but that units were operating in nearby areas and from the islands in the Dnipro Delta. Ukraine occupied Krynky late last year and used it for counterbattery fire against Russian artillery, which had been harassing settlements on the unoccupied right bank of the river.
Attacks behind enemy lines
While Ukraine largely held its front line intact during the past week, it also attempted attacks deep into Russian and occupied territory, with some successes.
Ukrainian aerial and naval drones disrupted a Russian coastguard exercise in Lake Donuzlav, in Crimea, last week, when they attacked a naval base. Ukraine’s Security Service said the drones disabled an ammunition warehouse, an electric substation and firing positions. Satellite photographs later confirmed the damage.
Russian officials said they thwarted two further attacks on Crimea, downing two ATACMS missiles and five drones on Sunday morning, and downing another 21 drones on Monday night, most bound for the port of Sevastopol.
On Saturday Ukraine launched drones against Millerovo airfield in western Russia, damaging a fuel tank and causing a fire. Russian sources said some 30 drones were downed. Russia reportedly stations Su-30 fighters at the base. Satellite photographs later showed that in addition to destroying the fuel tank, Ukraine’s drones destroyed the maintenance hangar at Millerovo.
On Tuesday, Ukrainian drones heavily damaged the Slavyanin ferry at the port of Kavkaz, which was used to carry railway cars, containers and vehicles across the Kerch Strait to Crimea. Ukrainian officials said it was the third and last ferry that Russia had at the port. Ukraine has blown up the Kerch bridge twice during the war, putting it partly out of action for military cargoes, and has at various points used ATACMS missiles, and naval and aerial drones to stop war material from reaching Crimea via other means.
Zelenskyy pleaded with his Western allies to allow Ukraine to attack airfields in Russia that Moscow is using to launch its bombing sorties. Russia has been dropping about 800 guided glide bombs a week, Zelenskyy has previously said. These are enormous munitions, ranging from 250kg (550 pounds) of explosive to three tonnes, and Ukraine has said they are responsible for a large proportion of its losses. The US, UK and Germany have placed some restrictions on the use of their munitions on Russian soil, to avoid a direct NATO-Russia war.
However, Zelenskyy told European leaders last week that that was a false fear. Allies partially lifted their restrictions when Russia attacked Kharkiv in May. “Did this lead to an escalation?” asked Zelenskyy. “No, on the contrary, it blocked Putin’s attempt to expand the war. Did Putin have any answer? No.”
“Military airfields, from which Russian planes with bombs against our cities take off, Russian missile launch sites – all this should be destroyed,” Zelenskyy said.
“The less we have restrictions on the use of effective weapons, the more actively Russia will strive for peace.”