Las Vegas is an escape from reality — unless you’re the Chargers.
While the Chargers enter training camp Tuesday energized by a potentially transformative offseason, Vegas sports books have delivered a sobering assessment of where they stand.
The over/under for Chargers wins this season is 8½.
The modest expectations are more of a reflection of the roster than they are of new coach Jim Harbaugh, who moved to the Chargers on a five-year contract after winning a national championship with Michigan.
Harbaugh has won at each of his previous coaching stops, and there’s a feeling of inevitability that he will eventually win here as well.
“I think he’s one of the most elite leaders in all of sports,” said defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who followed Harbaugh from Michigan.
Harbaugh’s enthusiasm has swept over the organization, which has started taking on his personality.
“I don’t know how you can be in a room with Jim and felt rubbed the wrong way,” general manager Joe Hortiz said.
Hortiz added, “I love him.”
This doesn’t mean the Chargers will suddenly take off the way the San Francisco 49ers did in 2011 during their first season under Harbaugh. That year, the 49ers went 13-3 and reached the NFC championship game. The following year, they played in the Super Bowl.
The season before Harbaugh arrived, the 49ers were 6-10.
What Harbaugh did with the 49ers can’t be overstated. The 49ers were five-time Super Bowl champions but nine years removed from their last winning season when they signed Harbaugh. They were a franchise that was dead in the water.
The speed at which they transformed into contenders was extraordinary, even by Harbaugh’s standards.
Harbaugh was 7-4 in his first season with the University of San Diego. He beat No. 1 USC in his first year at Stanford, but the Cardinal finished just 4-8.
Coach Jim Harbaugh holds the Rose Bowl trophy after Michigan defeated Alabama in a College Football Playoff semifinal on Jan. 1. A week later the Wolverines beat Washington for the national title.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
When Harbaugh was at Michigan, he was 0-5 against Ohio State and 3-4 against Michigan State. The Wolverines became national champions in their ninth season under Harbaugh.
Each of Harbaugh’s teams might have taken different paths to success, but their philosophical foundations were similar.
“There’s a style of football that I think we both believe in,” Minter said. “It requires a toughness and a physicality, an ability to win games in multiple ways.”
On offense, that means dominating the offensive line and running the ball.
That rhetoric is familiar to the Chargers. Last year, then-coach Brandon Staley brought in a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore with designs of improving the ground game, only for the rushing attack to regress.
More substantive changes have been made under Harbaugh and Hortiz.
The increased emphasis on the running game was exemplified by what they did on the free-agent market, where their most significant financial investment was in Will Dissly, a blocking tight end.
The Chargers could have used their first-round draft choice, fifth overall, on an impact receiver such as Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze. Instead, they selected offensive tackle Joe Alt.
With All-Pro Rashawn Slater on the left side of the offensive line, the 6-foot-9 Alt is expected to play right tackle. The addition of Alt is expected to move Trey Pipkins III from tackle to guard.
The Chargers are expected to pound the ball with 238-pound bruiser Gus Edwards and reclamation project J.K. Dobbins, who are familiar with offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s system from their days together with the Baltimore Ravens.
Harbaugh is hopeful a consistent running game will create an environment in which quarterback Justin Herbert can thrive. Herbert will enter his fifth year in the NFL still in search of his first postseason victory.
Now, the Chargers shouldn’t be humiliated the way they were in a 63-21 loss in Las Vegas last year. They shouldn’t crumble the way they did when they blew a 21-point lead in a playoff loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars the year before. They shouldn’t position Herbert to have to chase the game time and time again.
That doesn’t happen to teams that effectively run the ball.
But there’s a reason the over/under for the Chargers was set at 8½ wins, as their roster looks like a work in progress.
The team’s two best receivers were salary-cap casualties, as Keenan Allen was traded to the Chicago Bears and Mike Williams was released. Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa are elite edge rushers, but the interior part of the defensive line is relatively inexperienced. The team is also thin in the defensive backfield.
Harbaugh has remained upbeat, calling his job with the Chargers “the best damn job I’ve ever had to start out with.”
“Hope it ends that way,” he said.
Eventually, it will.
Harbaugh has won everywhere, and he should win with the Chargers. Reaching that point could take time, however. Owner Dean Spanos will have to remain patient and committed.