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(Bloomberg) — Following talks on a migration crackdown with Hungary’s Viktor Orban at the European Political Community summit this week, host Keir Starmer allowed himself a rare unguarded moment as he told Italian premier Giorgia Meloni about his efforts to bring his Labour lawmakers along on his policies.

“These were hard conversations to have with my party,” Britain’s new center-left prime minister, fresh off a landslide UK election victory two weeks ago, said to his right-wing counterpart as they walked through the maze in Blenheim Palace. “Yeah, I imagine,” she smiled back.

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The pair are unlikely allies, and it was odder still to see Starmer — a former human rights lawyer — appearing to enjoy Orban’s jokes. Yet for allies of the premier, there are lessons to be learned from both leaders — and Marine Le Pen in France and Donald Trump in the US — about what some senior Labour officials see as the key threat to their administration: the surge of the populist right across Europe and America, and the fear that it could be replicated in the UK.

While Starmer likes and had positive talks with more natural allies Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz in Oxfordshire on Thursday, and with President Joe Biden at the NATO summit in Washington last week, his overarching aim is to avoid their struggles at the hands of the political right, according to people close to him who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private views.

That means paying close attention to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, and the former Brexit campaigner’s appeal to disenchanted voters. “They can see things about our politics that many of us can’t,” Josh Simons, a new lawmaker who is close to Starmer, told an audience at a think tank’s summer party on Monday, as Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves looked on. 

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At Blenheim Palace, Starmer held talks with Orban, Meloni and others on how to stop migration at source and in southern Europe.

Some Starmer aides and Cabinet members argue a tough approach on migration and crime — typically prioritized by right-wing parties — will be key to securing a second term, an indication of how even the biggest parliamentary majority in a generation won’t shield Labour from risks over the next five years.

Those in Labour who subscribe to that view want Starmer to send asylum-seekers to third countries for processing — something he hinted he is considering at his summit press conference on Thursday — and not to be squeamish about drawing a link between irregular migration and rising crime.

The strategy would be to avoid creating a target for right-wing attacks, either by being portrayed as overly liberal on social issues or keen to hike taxes to fund higher public spending — core demands among the Labour base.

As one Starmer supporter put it, there should be no left turn in office after he campaigned from the political center.

Yet as Starmer’s line to Meloni made clear, his party will be hard to convince.

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A major issue for Starmer is the party’s impatience after 14 years in opposition, a period of turmoil which included Brexit and the pandemic. The pressure from Labour supporters for the prime minister to emulate Tony Blair in remaking the economy — over more than a decade in power — is immense.

The first clear sign of unrest will likely come as soon as next week when some Labour members of Parliament try to push him into making boosting welfare for parents by removing the two-child cap on benefit payments.

Starmer has said that while he’s sympathetic, stretched public coffers won’t yet stretch to the £2.5 billion the Resolution Foundation think tank estimates lifting the cap would cost. But the prime minister also launched a task force on child poverty last week, inviting in charities who are campaigning to scrap the cap, a move that led many to conclude he is likely to back down.

To be sure, Starmer’s allies say there is little prospect of him losing any vote in Parliament. He has a working majority of 180, an amendment on the issue may not even be selected, and new Labour lawmakers have been reminded by whips that an early rebellion would not be viewed well in 10 Downing Street.

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A government official described it as a virility test of the new administration, arguing it can’t be seen to lose its first fight with the Labour left. They expressed frustration that by moving so soon, the would-be rebels had made it harder for Starmer to lift the cap at the autumn Budget without it looking weak.

Other Starmer allies conceded he will need to throw a bone to his party to ensure unity, amid what Reeves foreshadowed as “difficult decisions” looming in the Budget in a Bloomberg interview this week.

One said the premier is determined to implement center-left policies, pointing to Wednesday’s King’s Speech setting out plans to reform workers’ rights, re-nationalize the railways and establish a state-owned clean energy company.

Still, the row is reminiscent of disagreements Starmer’s team had in opposition, between those in who prized fiscal prudence and cautious policies to avoid alienating non-traditional Labour voters, and others wanting more ambition.

The former won that battle with Starmer, most famously on how much to commit to spending on the green energy transition in their manifesto. Its proponents argue they were vindicated by Labour’s huge election win.

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In the first days of the new government, some old clashes are being revisited in the form of skirmishes over appointments of advisers. That’s caused some bad blood and needs to be resolved swiftly and peacefully, a minister said.

As was the case on the green spending, it’s not yet clear which way Starmer will lean. Some allies said his choice could determine whether his government can deliver the stability he promised, and avoid emulating the setbacks of his progressive allies in Europe and across the Atlantic.

“We’ve seen the rise of populism and nationalism across Europe, across America and other countries,” Starmer told Bloomberg last month. “It’s very important we make the case that only progressive, democratic parties in government have the answers to the challenges that are out there.”

At Blenheim Palace, he made clear he’s still grappling with the threat. He said his talks with Meloni on migration as the most important part of the summit, and praised his Conservative predecessor for forging close relations with her.

“We build on the relationship that Rishi Sunak put in place, rather than start in a different place,” he said.

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