Donald Trump on Thursday finally got the full-on, adoring convention celebration he never achieved in 2016 or 2020, proclaimed as a “real American hero” by Hulk Hogan, serenaded by Lee Greenwood and cheered by an arena full of Republicans convinced that victory is nigh.
He capped his moment of triumph with a 92-minute stem-winder that set a modern record for length. The speech began with an effort to recast himself as a unifying figure before morphing into a just slightly softened version of his standard rally performance:
He accused Democrats of seeking to “destroy” the nation, pledged to launch “the largest deportation operation in the history of our country” and asserted that if reelected he could end inflation, establish world peace and cure cancer.
For all its extravagance, however, the night wasn’t likely to have a major long-term impact on the campaign — conventions typically don’t except to the extent that they introduce a candidate to the public, and Trump is, by now, a figure who needs no introduction.
The more politically consequential event was unfolding some 900 miles to the east, in Rehoboth Beach, Del., where President Biden was pondering his political fate as he recovered from a bout of COVID-19.
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On the floor of the convention, smiling delegates waved signs proclaiming “Fire Joe Biden.” Nancy Pelosi may have accomplished that task for them.
For Biden, a decision point
Biden is known for taking his time making decisions — in 2015, for example, he repeatedly delayed before opting not to run against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination.
But the pressure on him to drop out of the race, which began with his stumbling performance in last month’s debate, mounted by the hour as the Republicans celebrated in Milwaukee.
Almost two-thirds of Democrats wanted him to withdraw, according to a new poll released Wednesday by the Associated Press, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago.
The former House speaker and some of her closest allies, Reps. Adam B. Schiff of Burbank and Jamie Raskin of Maryland, played leading roles as Democrats sought to convince Biden to yield.
On Wednesday, Schiff made a public statement urging Biden to “pass the torch.” On Thursday, Raskin followed with a letter making the same case.
In private, Pelosi spoke with Biden and presented polling data indicating that he could not win, a conversation that quickly became public and acknowledged by her spokesperson.
By the time Trump spoke, leading Democrats were predicting to reporters that Biden would quit the race, perhaps as early as the weekend.
White House and campaign officials stuck to their denials that any such move was in the works.
If Biden decides not to run, Vice President Kamala Harris would be the overwhelming favorite to become the Democratic nominee, although whether that would come by acclamation or only after some form of competition remained unclear.
Harris would face hurdles as nominee
If that happens, the vice president would start out as the underdog. The public polls showing Biden losing to Trump show her behind, as well.
A CBS News poll, released Thursday, for example, which showed Trump’s lead over Biden expanding to 52%-47%, had Harris trailing 51%-48%.
Unlike the president, however, Harris, 59, offers Democrats the possibility of a way forward, unburdened by public fears about advanced age and cognitive decline.
The most immediate problems Harris would face would be logistical.
To start, she’d need to assemble a campaign team — she’s unlikely to want to rely on the same small circle of top advisors who have stuck with Biden for years, in some cases decades.
Staffing has been a problem for Harris in the past. Infighting and a lack of clear decision-making badly hampered her 2020 campaignfor the Democratic nomination.
The campaign would need to reinvigorate a Democratic fundraising apparatus that has stalled badly in the weeks since the debate. They would also have to resolve legal issues over the transfer of the Biden campaign’s existing funds.
And Democratic planners would have only a scant few weeks to retool their own convention, which is scheduled to begin on Aug. 19, to showcase a candidate who could benefit from an introduction to voters.
She would also have some advantages
The Republican line of attack against Harris is already clear.
If she becomes the nominee, they will try to depict her as a radical leftist, a California liberal out of touch with ordinary Americans. And they’ll aim to hold her responsible for the administration’s border policies, which are among the Democrats’ biggest political weak points.
In her 2020 campaign, Harris faced the opposite political problem: She struggled to persuade primary voters that she was progressive enough and ultimately was squeezed between Biden, who appealed to Democratic moderates, and Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, who had more cachet with the party’s left.
As the Democratic nominee, Harris would have several early, high-profile opportunities to persuade moderate voters of her acceptability.
That would start with her choice of a running mate — speculation has centered on several Democratic governors, including Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.
Next would come the convention, where Democrats could, if they choose, highlight Harris’ background as a prosecutor.
In the unusual circumstances of the 2020 primaries, shadowed by the murder of George Floyd by police in Minneapolis, Harris’ experience as a district attorney counted as a liability, at least with Democratic activists.
Typically, however, a background in law enforcement is an advantage for a politician. With Republicans trying to play on voters’ fears of crime, stressing Harris’ credentials in that area would be a natural move.
Wide openings on policy
The Republican convention highlighted the party’s unity behind Trump, but did relatively little to lay out a policy agenda, leaving wide openings that a Democratic campaign potentially could exploit.
Convention speakers hit culture-war staples — repeated references to keeping trans women out of women’s sports consistently drew applause, for example. But although the public largely sides with the GOP on that issue, it hasn’t been a top priority for most voters and hasn’t helped Republican candidates outside of reliably conservative districts.
Trump, in his speech, weighed in heavily on immigration, the issue that, more than any, has defined his political career.
So far, he hasn’t paid a political price for advocating unprecedentedly massive roundups of people in the country without legal authorization. Democrats are confident, however, that voters will reject the idea as they hear more about it.
And while the turmoil on the border is one of the biggest liabilities that any Democratic candidate would face, along with inflation, the Democrats correctly can say that both problems are getting better.
The number of illegal border crossings has plummeted since Biden’s announcement in May of new, tougher policies toward asylum, and the inflation rate has dropped enough that the Federal Reserve is likely to begin cutting interest rates in September.
Beyond that, the Republican gathering often appeared oddly disconnected from some of the biggest issues of the day. Trump, for example, not only never mentioned the word abortion in his speech, he avoided the entire topic.
Harris has already emerged as one of the party’s leading voices on reproductive rights, and if she becomes the nominee, it likely will figure heavily in her campaign.
The Republicans also had little to say about climate change beyond a repeated pledge to eliminate the Biden administration’s efforts to convert America to electric vehicles.
Trump and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, depicted that as an effort to save the auto industry from destruction. But at a time when unemployment is at near-record lows, manufacturing is booming and auto companies are competing to bring new EVs to market, that case may be hard to make.
Nostalgia for an America of the past has played a huge role in Trump’s rise, but it has also proved to have limited appeal: He’s never come close to winning a majority of the vote.
Democrats’ chances will turn on whether they can persuade voters that their policies are better suited to the America of the future. That will be a far easier task if the incumbent president is no longer their nominee.
What else to read
Poll of the week: Among young U.S. workers without a college degree, men and women hold very different types of jobs.
L.A. Times special: Can chess games and toilet paper change prison culture? Inside San Quentin’s big experiment.
Saturday great read: The New Yorker takes a deep look at the Trump Plan for 2025.
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