Charting the Global Economy: UK Services Inflation Tops Forecast

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(Bloomberg) — Britain recorded stronger-than-expected inflation in its services sector last month, retail sales weakened and the budget deficit exceeded estimates — highlighting a host of challenges for UK policymakers.

Money markets see about a 40% chance that the Bank of England will lower interest rates next month, as officials balance signs of a weakening labor market with stubborn price pressures.

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The European Central Bank, meanwhile, left interest rates unchanged after last month’s landmark cut. The ECB is weighing whether euro-zone inflation is cooling sufficiently to allow further monetary loosening.

Economic growth in China, meantime, fell short of nearly all projections, with second-quarter gross domestic product climbing 4.7%, amid consumer-spending weakness.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics:

Europe

UK services inflation, which policymakers have been watching for signs of continued domestic price pressures, held steady at 5.7% for the second straight month. Persistence in services inflation will further complicate calculations before Governor Andrew Bailey announces the BOE’s next decision on Aug. 1, even with headline inflation holding steady at the official 2% target.

The ECB will meet its inflation target in 2025, according to its quarterly survey of professional forecasters. The results come a day after the ECB held interest rates at 3.75%, without providing a clear signal of when it will next ease monetary policy. Market bets point toward two more cuts in 2024, though officials are wondering whether that’s feasible, according to people familiar with the matter.

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Keir Starmer’s new Labour government suffered a double setback on Friday as figures for June showed UK retail sales fell a larger-than-expected 1.2% in June and public borrowing overshot official forecasts.

Asia

China’s growth unexpectedly slowed to the worst pace in five quarters as faltering consumer spending undermined an export boom, putting pressure on policymakers to step up support at a twice-a-decade economic meeting this week.

In Singapore’s boomtime, whisky dealer Manjit Gill used to sell at least a bottle every day to his wealthy Chinese customers, who occasionally splurged as much as S$100,000 ($75,000) in one go on single malt. These days, three sales a week to them counts as a good run. Gone too are the most outlandish purchases.

US

Retail sales, excluding the impact of a cyberattack on auto dealerships, rose in June by the most in three months, a sign consumers regained their footing at the end of the second quarter. The data buck a trend in recent months showing a gradual slowdown in consumption growth as Americans feel the pinch of high interest rates and a cooling labor market.

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The Biden administration, facing pushback to its chip crackdown on China, has told allies that it’s considering using the most severe trade restrictions available if companies such as Tokyo Electron Ltd. and ASML Holding NV continue giving the country access to advanced semiconductor technology. US companies feel that restrictions on exports to China have unfairly punished them and are pushing for changes.

Industrial production posted a solid advance for a second month in June, helped by a pickup in factory output that indicates manufacturing could be regaining some footing.

Emerging Markets

Nigeria’s annual inflation quickened for an 18th straight month, raising the prospect of another interest-rate increase when the central bank meets next week. 

Major wheat importer Egypt made its biggest purchase in two years, in another sign that slumping grain prices are boosting demand. The country’s state buyer booked 770,000 tons in a tender on Tuesday, the largest such deal since June 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Most supplies will come from Russia, the first time the world’s top exporter has dominated sales to Egypt in a tender for the new season.

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World

In addition to the ECB, central banks in South Africa, Indonesia, Egypt, Uruguay and Angola kept rates unchanged.

The International Monetary Fund warned inflation in many major economies has been cooling slower than expected, raising a potential risk to global growth from interest rates staying higher “for even longer.” Despite those warnings, the IMF sees the global economy still poised for a soft landing.

Unstable electricity networks create instability for businesses, roil politics and threaten lives. Expanding the grid will cost about $24.1 trillion to meet net zero goals by 2050, outpacing the investment needed in renewable-power capacity, according to BloombergNEF. Because of their vast areas and high energy use, the US and China face the biggest bills, but no country is spared.

—With assistance from Philip Aldrick, Celia Bergin, Mark Chediak, Christopher Condon, Eamon Akil Farhat, Alice Gledhill, Mackenzie Hawkins, Ian King, John Liu, Fiona MacDonald, Eric Martin, Takashi Mochizuki, Mark Niquette, Nduka Orjinmo, Áine Quinn, Tom Rees, Misha Savic, Zoe Schneeweiss, Bernadette Toh and Fran Wang.

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