Islamabad, Pakistan – Just last month, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif extended an olive branch to the leadership of the country’s main opposition, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), during his speech in the National Assembly.

“In 76 years since Pakistan’s independence, we’ve reached a point where we even hesitate to shake hands with one another,” Sharif said on June 26, lamenting the deep political divide in the country.

Yet, less than a month later, on July 15, Information Minister Attaullah Tarar announced in a press conference in Islamabad that the government was considering banning the PTI, citing accusations of inciting violent protests last year and leaking classified information. The PTI is led by former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was in power from 2018 to 2022.

“The government has decided to ban PTI after reviewing all available evidence. We will move a case to ban the party,” he stated.

The announcement by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) government drew widespread condemnation not only from its rivals but also from its allies and human rights groups. Even the United States expressed its concerns.

Leaders of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the second-largest party in the ruling coalition, said they were not consulted before the announcement.

“We were never taken on board, nor have they reached out to us since. We found out about the government’s decision through the information minister’s press conference,” PPP Senator Saleem Mandviwalla told Al Jazeera.

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), the country’s foremost rights body, called the decision an act of “political desperation”.

“HRCP demands that this unconstitutional decision be withdrawn immediately. If implemented, it will only deepen polarisation and likely lead to political chaos and violence,” the commission stated.

Facing a torrent of criticism, the PMLN leadership has backtracked — at least for now — saying the final decision would not be taken without consulting the ruling coalition’s allies.

“There are multiple factors behind the proposal to ban PTI, but we will first present our reasons for banning to our allies. Only when there is consensus will we move forward with further actions,” Defence Minister Khawaja Asif told Al Jazeera.

But why did the government announce plans for a ban in the first place?

Many observers believe the plan to ban the PTI, whose leader Imran Khan has been in jail since August last year, was conceived following a Supreme Court verdict last week.

The verdict handed a major legal victory to the PTI by declaring it eligible for a share of reserved seats in the national and provincial assemblies. The court also recognised the PTI as a political party, affirming that not having an election symbol does not affect a party’s legal rights to field candidates.

The reserved-seat controversy erupted following the country’s general elections in February this year. A month before the polls, the election commission revoked the party’s electoral symbol, a cricket bat, on charges of violating electoral laws. Days before the election, Khan, a former cricket captain and the party’s chief, was sentenced on multiple charges.

Despite the setback, the PTI’s candidates, contesting independently, won the most seats (93), compared to the PMLN’s 75 and PPP’s 54. With the reserved seats added after the Supreme Court ruling, the PMLN-led government would no longer have a two-thirds majority in parliament, needed for constitutional amendments.

“They [the government] just want to weaken their rival in any way possible, especially as PTI is getting relief from the courts,” Ahmed Ijaz, a political analyst, said.

Pakistan has a history of banning political parties under both military dictatorships and civilian administrations. In fact, the last two instances of banning political parties occurred under the PTI government.

Sindhi Nationalist party Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz-Aresar was declared banned in May 2020, as the PTI government claimed the party flag was used by a banned outfit that was accused of conducting violent attacks on security personnel. The second party to be banned by the PTI was the far-right religious outfit Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, which was banned in May 2021 following protests in Punjab province that turned violent, killing several policemen. However, the party successfully appealed its ban and in October of the same year, the ban was lifted.

Khan, who served as prime minister from August 2018 to April 2022, has since railed against the country’s powerful military establishment, accusing it of colluding with his political rivals to keep him out of power. The military, which has directly ruled Pakistan for more than three decades and retains significant influence in political decision-making, denies these charges.

PTI faced a harsh crackdown following the May 9 violence last year, which erupted after Khan was detained for less than 48 hours. PTI supporters went on a rampage, destroying public properties and targeting military installations and monuments. Thousands of protesters were arrested, and more than 100 were tried in secretive military courts.

Former PTI Secretary General Asad Umar, who left the party and retired from politics in November 2023, believes the decision to ban PTI will not come to fruition.

“I don’t think even PMLN leaders are serious about banning the party,” he told Al Jazeera. “I think this is merely another tactic to buy time and build pressure.”

Constitutional expert Faisal Fareed Chaudhry says that under Pakistan’s constitution, political parties can only be banned by the Supreme Court.

“The government can file a reference, but the final verdict will be from the Supreme Court. It is important to remember that only last week the court declared PTI a political party,” he told Al Jazeera.

Chaudhry further stated that accusations leading to a ban must include evidence of actions against state sovereignty or collusion with a foreign power.

“I don’t think the government has substantial evidence to move this case. This is just to pressure the judiciary, which ruled against the government in the reserved seats matter. It appears the government has no plan, nor will this decision worry PTI,” he added.

Ijaz, the political analyst, warned that the move to ban the PTI could backfire on the government. “Attempts to ban political parties in the past have not been successful, whether under political regimes or dictatorships, even though those banned were not as strong as PTI,” he added.

Asif, the federal minister, asserted that the government has collected ample evidence against PTI to push for a ban. He also pushed back against criticism from the West.

“This is an internal matter for us,” he said, “and it should not matter what the global community says about a decision we are making for our domestic affairs, in line with our constitution.”