US Futures Waver as Traders Juggle Trump-Win Bets: Markets Wrap

Article content

(Bloomberg) — US stock futures fluctuated after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump reinforced speculation that his chances of winning the November presidential election have increased.

S&P 500 contracts were little changed in early Asian trading. The US dollar edged up against most currencies. Bitcoin topped $60,000 in the wake of the attack. Asian stocks were set for a mixed start after futures in Australia and China rose on Friday while those in Hong Kong slipped.

Article content

Cash trading of US bonds is closed in Asia due to a holiday in Japan. US Treasury futures fell, indicating yields will rise when cash trading begins in London. Australian bond yields edged lower, following US Treasuries on Friday.

“Not reacting may prove to be the smartest thing you can do,” said Oliver Pursche at Wealthspire Advisors. “Markets will find their equilibrium and get back to the things that matter from an investment perspective, which are economic growth, monetary and fiscal policy and corporate earnings.”

In the aftermath of Saturday’s attack — with images of a defiant Trump with his fist raised over his head and his bloody right ear — chances of him becoming president again increased, according to PredictIt data.

Trump’s support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs are generally viewed as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries. Yields surged in the wake of Joe Biden’s poor debate performance last month, showing the sensitivity of Treasuries — particularly longer-dated securities.

Traders are now grappling with how much of the impact has already been priced into markets as Trump’s election odds steadily rose.

Article content

Article content

Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include the shares of energy firms, private prisons, credit-card companies and health insurers. Renewable-energy stocks could suffer. Bitcoin may rise further, given both its appeal to investors seeking a hedge for political turmoil away from conventional financial assets, and Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

“From a markets perspective, I would suggest that if Trump emerges as an even more obvious winner, then we should see the bear-steepener we saw after the debate,” said Michael Purves at Tallbacken Capital. “In terms of equities, I don’t think this changes the trajectory at the overall level, though some stocks which will benefit from lower corporate taxes and lower regulation.”

Comments:

• John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management:

“As shocking as this stuff is, violence in our country and around the world due to terrorism is a regular thing that we all face. We would have to say that the market is effectively focused on fundamentals. It would appear to be that where we were on Friday before this happened on Saturday, that we’re basically in the same spot.”

Article content

• Lloyd Chan, a strategist at MUFG in Singapore:

“We would typically expect the US dollar to benefit from a risk-off environment. So, it’s surprising that markets have not reacted more to increased uncertainty resulting from the Trump assassination attempt in the early hours of trading. It could be that the US dollar is still being weighed down by more dovish market expectations for Fed rate cuts following a string of cooler price pressures and weaker economic data from the US.”

• Frank Monkam, senior portfolio manager at Antimo:

The “assassination attempt of President Trump is likely to mark the ‘grand opening’ of an elevated period of volatility for risk assets. Trump trades are also poised to move on the high conviction list for investors, with a particular focus on rates markets where the re-pricing of fiscal profligacy will look to offset the prospects of imminent Fed cuts.”

• Charles-Henry Monchau, chief investment officer at Banque SYZ:

“Should the election become a landslide victory for Trump, this probably reduces uncertainty, which is positive for risk assets. Meanwhile, this could lead to more upward pressure on bond yields and a steepening of the yield curve.”

Article content

• Joe Gilbert, senior portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management:

“The Trump assassination attempt will definitely inject some uncertainty into markets. Given markets are trading at all-time highs, it would make sense to for the market to retreat from these levels as the potential for a more contentious and contested election seems more probable. We expect volatility to increase even as the odds of a Trump win seems to be getting higher odds.”

• Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank:

“This weekend’s events will likely cause increased volatility on Monday open both in stock and bond markets. We expect to see flight to safe havens like Swiss franc and gold. Bitcoin has reacted positively to the news as a result of knee-jerk flight to safety.”

In the US, investors contending with uncertainty related to inflation, interest rates and geopolitics are bracing for volatility that could accompany the presidential campaign and November election. 

Election years have generally been good for the US stock market. 

The S&P 500 has risen in almost every election year since 1960. The exceptions were 2000 and 2008, which were marred by the dotcom bust and the great financial crisis, respectively. The record looks even better for recent election cycles. In the three election years since 2008 — 2012, 2016, 2020 — the benchmark index rose at least 10%.

Article content

A non-stop rally in US stocks since April is facing a major test as the earnings season powers ahead. Companies will have to impress as expectations are elevated, especially for megacaps. Though still robust, big tech earnings are projected to slow.

Analysts estimate that members of the S&P 500 will see second-quarter profits rise 9.3% over the prior-year period, which will be the biggest such expansion since the last three months of 2021, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.

For the first time since 2022, investors will likely shift their attention to the rest of the 493 companies in the S&P 500. Companies outside of tech are expected to report their first quarterly earnings growth in at least six quarters.

Corporate Highlights:

• Boeing Co. has started conducting flight trials of its 777-9 aircraft with US regulators on board, achieving a milestone toward certifying its jumbo airliner after years of setbacks.
• Google parent Alphabet Inc. is in talks to acquire cybersecurity startup Wiz Inc., according to a person familiar with the matter.
• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is appealing its result in the Federal Reserve’s latest stress test, which would require the bank to hold more capital, according to the Financial Times.
• A hacker who claims to have stolen sensitive call and text logs from AT&T Inc. said they were paid about $400,000 to erase the data trove.

Article content

Key events this week:

• Eurozone industrial production, Monday
• US Empire State Manufacturing, Monday
• Goldman Sachs earnings, Monday
• Jerome Powell is interviewed by David Rubinstein, Monday
• Fed’s Mary Daly speaks, Monday
• Germany ZEW survey expectations, Tuesday
• US retail sales, business inventories, Tuesday
• Morgan Stanley, Bank of America earnings, Tuesday
• Fed’s Adriana Kugler speaks, Tuesday
• Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
• US housing starts, industrial production, Wednesday
• Fed Beige Book, Wednesday
• Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, Wednesday
• ECB rate decision, Thursday
• US initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing, Conference Board LEI, Thursday
• Fed’s Mary Daly, Lorie Logan and Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
• Fed’s John Williams, Raphael Bostic speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets: 

Stocks

• S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 7:49 a.m. Tokyo time
• Hang Seng futures fell 0.5%
• S&P/ASX 200 futures rose 0.6%

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
• The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0887
• The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 158.33 per dollar
• The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2792 per dollar
• The Australian dollar fell 0.2% to $0.6768

Bonds

• Australia’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.31%

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $60,819.88
• Ether rose 1.4% to $3,247.07

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $82.35 a barrel
• Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,407.18 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

—With assistance from Ruth Carson, Allegra Catelli, Jessica Menton and Esha Dey.

Article content