The Asia-Pacific region has long been a hub of complex geopolitical dynamics, driven by global power competition, overlapping territorial claims, and maritime security challenges. Countries in the Asia-Pacific region continue to strengthen their defense capabilities and seek strategic cooperation to ensure stability.
Amidst the increasing geopolitical dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region, the discourse on forming a trilateral defense pact between the United States, Japan, and South Korea is gaining momentum. Last June, the three countries conducted a joint military exercise named “Freedom Edges” in the East China Sea, drawing strong condemnation from North Korea. These three countries have a long history of diplomatic and military relations but have never formed a formal alliance binding them in a defense pact. However, this potential is emerging as a strategic consideration driven by increasingly complex threats, particularly from China and North Korea, prompting the need to strengthen regional security cooperation.
Since the end of World War II, the United States has initiated a significant military presence in East Asia, particularly in Japan and South Korea. In 1951, the US-Japan Security Treaty was signed, allowing for the presence of US military forces in Japan to maintain regional stability and security. Similarly, the US-South Korea Mutual Defense Treaty signed in 1953 ensures US military commitment to the defense of South Korea.
However, looking at history, relations between Japan and South Korea have not always been harmonious. Japan’s colonial history in Korea and various historical disputes have been thorns in their bilateral relations. Nevertheless, the shared threat from North Korea and concerns about China’s military expansion have forced these two countries to set aside their differences for mutual security interests.
One of the main drivers for the formation of this trilateral defense pact is the threat from North Korea. Pyongyang’s nuclear program and ballistic missile development continue to pose a significant threat to regional stability. North Korea’s frequent missile tests, including those capable of reaching US, Japanese, and South Korean territories, highlight the urgent need for enhanced military coordination and preparedness among the three countries.
Additionally, China’s military expansion in the South and East China Seas has raised concerns about Beijing’s strategic intentions. China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy, including contested territorial claims and the construction of military facilities on artificial islands, poses significant challenges to maritime security in the region. Japan and South Korea, as countries reliant on secure sea trade routes, see the importance of forming an alliance to balance China’s military power.
A trilateral defense pact would provide various strategic benefits for the three countries. Firstly, it would strengthen deterrence against threats from North Korea and China. With better coordination and more efficient intelligence sharing, the three countries can respond to threats more quickly and effectively.
Secondly, this pact would enhance interoperability between the US, Japanese, and South Korean militaries. More frequent and complex joint military exercises would improve the capability of the three countries’ forces to work together in crisis situations. This is crucial to ensure they can act as a coordinated unit in facing threats.
Economically, better regional stability would create a conducive environment for economic growth. Foreign investments would be more attracted to regions deemed safe and stable. Additionally, cooperation in defense could open opportunities for the defense industries of the three countries to develop and produce military technology together, thereby enhancing defense capabilities and technological innovation.
Despite the potential benefits, the formation of this trilateral defense pact also faces several challenges and obstacles. One is the issue of domestic politics in each country. In Japan, there are concerns about the interpretation of Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, which prohibits the use of military force in international disputes. The debate over revising this constitution remains a sensitive topic among the Japanese public.
In South Korea, issues of national sovereignty and sensitivities regarding historical relations with Japan could be obstacles. Anti-Japanese sentiment remains strong in South Korea, and any move towards a closer alliance with Japan could provoke negative reactions from the public. Furthermore, there are concerns that deeper involvement with the US and Japan could provoke China and North Korea, potentially exacerbating regional tensions.
According to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), global military spending reached a record high of $2.2 trillion in 2023, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for about 28% of that spending. Military spending in Asia has been increasing in recent years. In 2023, China’s military spending reached around $307.8 billion, a 5% increase from the previous year. Meanwhile, Japan spent about $56.8 billion on defense, and South Korea $48.0 billion. This increase reflects growing concerns about security threats in the region.
Additionally, data from the US Department of Defense shows that the number of joint military exercises between the US, Japan, and South Korea has significantly increased over the past decade. In 2023, the three countries conducted more than 25 joint military exercises, covering various aspects from naval exercises to cyber warfare simulations. These exercises have helped enhance readiness and coordination among the three countries.
The formation of a trilateral defense pact between the United States, Japan, and South Korea would not only affect these three countries but also have a significant impact on the entire Asia-Pacific region. A stronger and more coordinated alliance between the US, Japan, and South Korea could serve as a counterbalance to China’s and North Korea’s military power. This could reduce the risk of conflict and tensions in the region, as well as enhance the stability necessary for economic growth and development. Additionally, with a strong defense alliance, security in vital maritime trade routes would be more assured. This is crucial for countries in the Asia-Pacific region that rely on maritime trade for their economies.
On the other hand, China and North Korea are likely to view the formation of this defense pact as a direct threat. This could prompt them to increase military exercises and strengthen their own alliances, potentially heightening regional tensions. In this context, a defense alliance not only involves military power but could also encompass economic, infrastructure, and technological cooperation.
Furthermore, the potential formation of a trilateral defense pact might also affect diplomatic dynamics in the region. Other countries, such as Australia, India, and ASEAN nations, might consider enhancing military cooperation with these three countries or even forming new alliances to face common threats. However, there is a possibility that this military alliance could trigger an arms race in the region. Other countries might feel threatened and increase their military spending to maintain the balance of power.
The potential formation of a trilateral defense pact between the United States, Japan, and South Korea is a necessary strategic response to increasingly complex regional security dynamics. Despite various challenges and obstacles, the strategic and economic benefits of this alliance are substantial. Closer cooperation in defense would enhance deterrence against threats from North Korea and China, as well as strengthen stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region.