- In short: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is widely believed to be on his way to a hat-trick election victory.
- While Hindu nationalism was a strong factor in the last two elections, the mood this time seems to have shifted.
- What’s next? Top leaders of the united Opposition say this time, the invincible prime minister will have a shrunken majority.
For the past two general elections, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been unbeatable.
And political experts, commentators and many Indian voters think he is going to clinch it again in this year’s poll.
But the mood of the country seems to be different than it has been over the last 10 years of Mr Modi’s rule with bread-and-butter issues — such as unemployment and inflation — on people’s minds more than religious issues.
This is the case even in the prime minister’s own constituency of Varanasi — one of India’s oldest and holiest cities — which is the highest-stakes seat in this election because it is a prestige seat for the prime minister.
The city is located in the country’s most significant state of Uttar Pradesh, which is the heart of the Hindi – and Hindu – heartland.
Losing it, or facing a shrunken majority there, would be a blow to both Mr Modi’s popular image as the defender of India’s Hindus, and to party pride.
So could that happen and what would it mean for Mr Modi’s future leadership?
Young voters are disillusioned with election
Mr Modi’s popularity remains high, both in his constituency and across the country’s north.
He has campaigned on his record of development in the city, the country’s economic performance under his leadership, and on promises that his party will safeguard the interests of the country’s majority.
But Akhilesh Yadav, who is one of the top leaders of the united Opposition, called INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), says the prime minister has neglected the people of his constituency.
“There’s neither a Modi Wave, nor any Modi magic this time,” the former chief minister of Uttar Pradesh told the ABC.
“When people look at the last 10 years, they see that unemployment has never been higher, farmers have been cheated like never before.
“This time, the people will defeat him.”
He said the people are fed up with “the broken promises”.
“The prime minister had said he would make sure Varanasi would become the next Kyoto,” he said.
“But these days, people are aware, they can Google Kyoto and see that their city is nowhere close [to that level of development].
“Basic amenities are missing, like solid waste management, sewage treatment plants, cleaning up the Ganges river.”
At his thousands-strong rally an hour out of Varanasi, Mr Yadav said the BJP’s promise to double farmers’ incomes had gone unfulfilled.
BJP spokesperson Jaiveer Shergill said in a statement that the opposition was making “hollow claims” that were detached from ground reality.
“Under the Modi government, India’s agricultural budget has increased five times from $AUD4.5 billion to 1.25 lakh crore ($22.6 billion).
“1.8 lakh crore ($32.5 billion) alone has been given to farmers under the Crop Insurance Scheme. Compared to the previous government, the BJP as spent three times more on crop purchases from farmers.”
In Varanasi city, it is the city’s educated youths who seem most disillusioned.
“I’m a young person, so my first priority is employment. All of these other issues like religion and such things are irrelevant to me,” said Ankit, who can’t find a job despite having gone to university.
The rising cost of living is also hitting those who live in the city hard.
“Everybody is feeling the pain from inflation,” said Janardhan, a labourer.
“The only people [who] are not [feeling the pain] are those who earn very well. But labourers, poor people are drowning.
“We used to be able to get gas for 350 rupees [$6.30]. Now, it’s 1,000-1,200 rupees [$18-21] … this is inflation.
“How can women cook without gas? How does a man who’s heading a family afford that? The dal [lentils] we eat used to cost 80-100 rupees per kilo [$1.45-1.81], now we’re getting a kilo for 200 rupees [$3.60].”
No denying Mr Modi’s popularity
Even with other issues weighing on voters’ minds, there is still a lot of support for Mr Modi, even in his own district.
“There is only one person who can bring the country forward, who can bring development. It’s Modi. Everyone knows it,” said Dr Yograj Bhatia, who came from out-of-state to cast his vote for Mr Modi.
He voted in the hotly contested seat of Rohtak — which is in Haryana, next to the capital, New Delhi — and used to be the bastion of the main opposition Congress party.
It is currently held by the BJP.
Another BJP voter, Aarti Singh, said no-one had done what Mr Modi had.
“He’s developed the country in the eyes of the world. We had been going backwards, now look at us, we’re the fifth largest economy,” she told the ABC as she came out of the voting booths.
Back in his own seat of Varanasi, women voters in particular appreciate what Mr Modi has done for them, such as handing out free gas cylinders so that women aren’t forced to cook on woodfired stoves and poison themselves with the fumes.
“He’s like a saint, he’s a Mahatma [great soul],” a local BJP leader said.
“He’s come to us in the form of a god. Look at what he’s done ever since he came to power, he hasn’t even taken one day off. Who else would work like this for the people?”
And yet, the BJP appears to be nervous in the prime minister’s own seat.
The party is leaving no stone unturned to ensure they get a huge margin.
BJP pulls out all the stops in Varanasi
In the two weeks before the last day of polling, the BJP sent a large contingent of ministers and senior party leaders — including the foreign minister — to set up camp in Varanasi and campaign hard for Mr Modi.
They have held numerous public meetings and have gone door-to-door, pressing the flesh with as many people and communities as they can.
At the same time, Opposition rallies near Varanasi were massive.
Rallies here for Congress scion Rahul Gandhi and former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav were densely packed, unruly, and filled with frustrated young people.
Several of these rallies even had to be cut short or interrupted as stampedes broke out, born out of excitement in seeing the two leaders on stage.
While most, even many Opposition voters, believe Mr Modi will win the seat as usual, there’s a strong sense of disillusionment in the air.
If Mr Modi wins his own seat by a smaller margin than he has previously, despite the fervour of their campaigning, it’ll be a signal to the BJP that perhaps the politics of religion can only go so far.