Western Australia is on track for record high greenhouse gas emissions this year and will not reach net zero by 2050 if business as usual continues, according to a secret government-commissioned report never made public.
The October 2023 report projected WA would emit 91.5 million tonnes of CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent) this year, 20 per cent above 2005 levels.
That will set the stage for the state to record its highest-ever rate of emissions, according to climate scientist Bill Hare.
“And with record high emissions, we need to think about where our temperatures are,” he said.
“Our May temperatures [in Perth] – the average maximum has never been higher.
“And that is linked very strongly to record greenhouse gas emissions globally.”
Commissioned by the WA government, the report provided a summary of analysis by the independent Climateworks Centre, with support from the CSIRO.
The ABC obtained a copy of the report despite being denied access through a Freedom of Information request.
No net zero on current plan
The WA government will soon legislate a commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
But the report’s modelling indicates WA will not be able to achieve that target based on current policies and industry plans.
This is despite the closure of coal-fired power stations and the Commonwealth’s safeguard mechanism reforms which use carbon pricing to get the nation’s biggest emitters to achieve targets.
It showed that in order to meet state and national net zero plans, emissions would need to be 11 per cent below 2005 levels in 2030 and 42 per cent below in 2035.
Based on WA’s current trajectory, modelling shows the state’s emissions will be 2 per cent below 2005 levels in 2030 and 20 per cent below in 2035.
This means a pathway aligned with the Paris Agreement goals would need to be more ambitious.
“Relying solely on contributing to the ambition of the federal emissions reduction targets and the WA government’s current net zero by 2050 target was found to be insufficient for WA to align with the Paris Agreement,” the report stated.
“Stronger ambition on emissions reductions compared to current policy commitments would set WA on a path towards net zero emissions at lowest long-term cost.”
Warning of serious impacts for WA
Western Australia and the Northern Territory are the only jurisdictions where total emissions have been rising since 2005.
Dr Hare said climate scientists around the world were “panicking” about government inaction.
“The only way we can deal with it is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” he said.
“Western Australia is on the frontline of very serious climate impacts if we don’t get on a pathway to limit warming to 1.5 degrees.”
However, Climate Action Minister Reece Whitby said WA would be able to reach net zero emissions by 2050, but it would not be easy.
“We have a real obligation in Western Australia to reduce emissions worldwide and that means pressure on getting gas to markets, mining critical minerals, mining iron ore – all of these things are essential to build renewable energy infrastructure,” he said.
“If we’re not doing that, well it might tell a nice story for our emissions, but it does not tell a nice story for global emissions because we have a responsibility to do the things we do here in order to build renewable energy infrastructure around the world and to also supply gas, which helps with the renewable transition.”
Government ’embarrassed’
Greens MP Brad Pettitt said greater transparency was needed.
“The information they have got to inform their decisions around climate should be transparent,” Mr Pettitt said.
“Absolutely nothing is being released and it’s because they are embarrassed around where emissions are going and also by what this calls for, which is real action.”
ABC News: Rachel Pupazzoni
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According to the state government’s Sectoral Emissions Reduction Strategy, the transport sector makes up around 18 per cent of WA’s emissions.
The Climateworks report shows transport emissions were expected to remain largely stagnant between now and 2035, and so were emissions from the agriculture sector.
Instead, the biggest reductions in emissions were projected to be in the electricity sector, where emissions are projected to decrease by 55 per cent in 2035 compared with 2024 levels, largely due to the retirement of coal plants and the federal government’s Safeguard Mechanism, which obligates major corporations to reduce their emissions.
But Dr Hare said a 55 per cent reduction in the power sector was much too slow.
“I think that is a big embarrassment,” he said,
“We need to get zero emissions from the power sector by the mid-2030s.
“Western Australia’s take up of renewables is about half the rate of Australia. It really is disgraceful.
“I really don’t think there is any chance at getting to net zero based on this.”
‘Huge challenge’: Minister
The WA Labor government has allocated more than $5.4 billion to the energy transition since 2017, including new generation, transmission and storage.
WA is the only state without a 2030 emissions target.
Queensland, also a mining state, recently announced it had already reached its 2030 target to reduce emissions by 30 per cent and was aiming to slash its emissions by 75 per cent by 2035.
“Queensland is a similar state, but I think we have a heavier burden,” Climate Action Minister Reece Whitby said.
“We have a massive iron ore industry, we have a massive gas extraction industry.
“But I’m not going to quibble. There is a huge challenge for Western Australia.”
WA’s climate action legislation will require the government to set targets for net emissions for 2035, 2040 and 2045.
The government’s website states the targets “should be set as soon as practicable” after the federal government releases targets for those dates.
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