After recessions, economies often bounce back more vigorously than ever—unless they stumble across new obstacles along their way.

Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the global economy was set for the fastest post-recession recovery since World War II. The pandemic had shuttered businesses, halted travels and left supply chains in disarray. The recovery was uneven across countries and regions but, as it often happens after deep recessions, it was strong: following a drop of 3% in 2020 and a bounce-back of 6.1% in 2021, late the same year the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was estimating global growth to continue strengthening by 4.9% in 2022.

The invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022 changed that. Less than two months later, in its World Economic Outlook April’s report, the Fund was reducing its previous forecast by 1.3% points to 3.6% for the ongoing year (with downgrades for 143 countries) and the following. When the actual numbers came in, growth proved even lower than those estimates: it stood at 3.4% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023, and it is now forecasted to expand at the same pace this year and the next, below pre-pandemic levels.

Many Small Emerging Nations Are Among The Fastest-Growing Economies In The World

Granted, even before Ukraine, the world’s economy was still grappling with the effects of the pandemic and other numerous preexisting conditions—accelerated inflation, lingering lockdowns and bottlenecks in global supply chains, rising geo-geopolitical fragmentation, climate change impacts, to name a few. Yet, while the impact of each of these components has fluctuated one way or the other over time, the recipe for sluggish economic growth has largely stayed the same.

It almost comes naturally to think that negative and slow growth are maladies more likely to affect the smallest and most fragile global players. In reality, it is often the opposite: not only many small emerging nations do rank among the fastest-growing economies in the world, but among those countries that in recent years have experienced slow or near-zero expansion one can find most Mediterranean EU members, as well well-oiled economic machines—to the surprise of some—such as Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland. Remarkably, according to the IMF, roughly 60% of global economic growth will come this year from the Asian continent, with countries like Malaysia and China projected to expand by more than 4%, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Vietnam by about 5% or more, and Philippines, Mongolia and India growing more than 6%.

These economies will rise precisely because there is more room for growth compared to already mature and developed countries—they boast a younger population, they are improving their infrastructure, they are attracting new investments. 

Still, other emerging and frontier markets—especially those that are still bearing the brunt of higher food and fuel costs—will fare much worse. For them, the challenges of the current multi-faceted crisis are the most severe, and include increased fiscal strain, collapse in internal and external demand, political instability. These nations are enduring a deep, long-lasting downturn that has the potential to halt or reverse hard-fought gains made over the past decades.

Contrary To Proverbial Wisdom War Is Bad For Business

Covid-19 triggered the first increase in global poverty in more than two decades; rising inflation and the effects of the war in Ukraine have only made things harder; the Israel-Gaza conflict now threatens to slow down growth and investments throughout the entire region.

But what about those nations directly involved in a conflict? War, contrary to proverbial wisdom, is generally bad for business. While Ukraine has been experiencing a moderate rebound after the economy sank almost 30% in 2022, for the West Bank and Gaza and countries marred by conflict and violence such as Syria, Eritrea and Afghanistan the financial and political situation is so bleak and uncertain that the IMF excludes them entirely from its economic projections.

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook April 2024. Values are expressed in current international dollars, reflecting the corresponding exchange rates and PPP adjustments.