Saturday proved to be a big day in the Premier League relegation mix as Sheffield United’s demise was confirmed and Everton and Brentford both secured top-flight safety.
That means the battle at the bottom is now just between Burnley, Luton and Nottingham Forest – with two of the three going down.
The Blades’ relegation was already an effective formality, with statisticians Opta giving them a 100% chance of going down before their match against Newcastle.
But the 5-1 defeat at St James’ Park means it is now mathematically impossible for them to stay up.
Elsewhere, Luton missed a chance to climb out of the drop zone as they lost 2-1 at Wolves – taking their chances of relegation from 70.3% to 81.5%.
Burnley picked up a battling 1-1 draw at Manchester United with an 87th-minute equaliser, which boosted their hopes of survival from 7.3% to 10.1%.
Those results meant Brentford were safe even before their match against Everton at Goodison Park – and the Toffees joined them in celebrating staying up with a 1-0 win.
Nottingham Forest, in 17th, are one point above Luton with a game in hand – but that match is at home to champions Manchester City on Sunday.
BBC Sport breaks down the relegation battle statistics…
| Team | Played | Points | GD | Form (past 5 games) |
| 17. Nottingham Forest | 34 | 26 | -18 | DWLDL |
| 18. Luton | 35 | 25 | -29 | LWLLL |
| 19. Burnley | 35 | 24 | -32 | DLDWD |
| 20. Sheffield United (R) | 35 | 16 | -63 | DLLLL |
| Team | % chance of relegation | Current position & points |
| 17. Nottingham Forest | 28.6 | 17th – 26 points |
| 18. Luton Town | 81.5 | 18th – 25 points |
| 19. Burnley | 89.9 | 19th – 24 points |
| 20. Sheffield United (R) | 100 | 20th – 16 points |
The run-in
Nottingham Forest: 27 April v Manchester City (home); 4 May v Sheffield Utd (away); 11 May v Chelsea (home); 19 May v Burnley (away).
Luton Town: 4 May v Everton (home); 11 May v West Ham (away); 19 May v Fulham (home).
Burnley: 4 May v Newcastle (home); 11 May v Tottenham (away); 19 May v Nottm Forest (home).
But it’s complicated…
While Forest’s four-point deduction for breaching profit and sustainability rules (PSR) has been applied, they have appealed against the decision. That appeal was set to be heard on Wednesday, 24 April.
The hearing was expected to be wrapped up within a day, but Forest will have to wait to discover if they are successful – with the timeframe of the outcome unclear.
They are expected to discover their fate before the final day of the season.
