After Liverpool’s draw against Manchester United, the pundits were split on whether it would prove to be one point gained or two dropped come the end of the season – but where does it leave the title race for now?
The result means just one point separates leaders Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City at the top of the Premier League, making it the tightest title race at this stage of a season since 1998-99.
Sunday was also only the second time in 2024 that one of the top three teams had failed to win a game against one of the other 17 sides in the division, after Chelsea held Manchester City to a 1-1 draw in February.
While former Liverpool players Jamie Carragher and Jamie Redknapp both agreed on Sky Sports that it was two points dropped for Liverpool, fellow pundit Roy Keane said it could yet be “vital”.
“I would be comfortable being in any of the camps,” said Keane. “I would be more comfortable in the City dressing room as they have done it.
“I think if I was in the Arsenal’s camp, I would be confident we would win the league, but if I was in Liverpool’s I wouldn’t panic – I would take the draw [against Manchester United].
“It could be goal difference or a referee decision – it is so exciting.”
Man City now favourites – despite being third
Opta, with its 10,000 ‘supercomputer’ simulations, supports Keane’s view that Manchester City’s dressing room is the place to be, having made them favourites for the title after the weekend’s results.
Despite being third, City now have a 39.4% chance of lifting the trophy for a fourth time in a row, while leaders Arsenal are still third favourites with 29.9%.
| Team | % chance of winning title | Current position & points |
| 1. Man City | 39.4 | 3rd – 70 points |
| 2. Liverpool | 30.7 | 2nd – 71 points |
| 3. Arsenal | 29.9 | 1st – 71 points |
Current table
| Team | Played | Points | GD | GS | Form (past 5 games) |
| 1. Arsenal | 31 | 71 | 51 | 75 | WWDWW |
| 2. Liverpool | 31 | 71 | 42 | 72 | WDWWD |
| 3. Man City | 31 | 70 | 40 | 71 | WDDWW |
| If teams are level after 38 games, the title will be decided on goal difference, and if still level, goals scored |
What are the remaining fixtures?
| April | Crystal Palace (h) | Luton (h) | Aston Villa (h) |
| Fulham (a) | Wolves (a) | ||
| Everton (a) | Brighton (a) | Chelsea (h) | |
| West Ham (a) | Nottingham Forest (a) | Tottenham (a) | |
| May | Tottenham (h) | Wolves (h) | Bournemouth (h) |
| Aston Villa (a) | Fulham (a) | Manchester United (a) | |
| Wolves (h) | West Ham (h) | Everton (h) | |
| Postponed to date TBC | Tottenham (a) |
When were the other closest three-way title races?
There have been a handful of three-way Premier League title races where the teams have been so close towards the end of a 38-game season.
2013-14: By as late as 6 May 2014, only two points separated Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea. City won their game in hand to leapfrog a stumbling Liverpool – characterised by Steven Gerrard’s infamous slip in their 2-0 defeat against Chelsea and then Crystal Palace’s comeback from three goals down to draw 3-3 – and snatched the title.
2001-02: On 23 April 2002, Arsenal led Liverpool by a point with Manchester United a further point back. But Arsenal had a game in hand and were partway through a run of 11 consecutive wins. They sealed the title by beating United at Old Trafford.
1995-96: In mid-March, with eight games left, Manchester United were level on 61 points with Newcastle, and Liverpool were on 59 points in third. Despite having played two games more at the time, Sir Alex Ferguson’s side saw off the challenge of Kevin Keegan’s Magpies.
What happened at this stage last year?
What if the teams finish level on points?
Should there be a tie, the league is decided on goal difference, then goals scored, then most points in the head-to-head matches, then most away goals in the head-to-head record.
Whatever happens, there are certain to be plenty of twists and turns between now and the final day of the season on 19 May.
