Behind Red Bull, a pattern is emerging, and one that has rendered all of the races this year, frankly, a bit dull.
Ferrari are clearly best of the rest. McLaren are the third fastest team, and there is a debate to be had over the order of Mercedes and Aston Martin in fourth and fifth.
The performance of all four of these cars over one lap on tyres with maximum grip that hide some of the machinery’s weaknesses is close enough that the grid order can be jumbled. But in the race the true pace of the cars comes through.
Charles Leclerc was outstanding in recovering from a difficult qualifying, which left him lining up eighth. He used the fact that he was the only front-runner to try a one-stop strategy – slower on paper than two, but allowing him to run at his own pace for longer – to finish an impressive fourth behind his Ferrari team-mate Carlos Sainz. But Leclerc could do this only because of the giant strides his team have made since last year.
Ferrari had the second fastest car by the end of 2023 as well – although they certainly did not start last year in that position – but in terms of overall competitiveness they have taken a step closer to Red Bull this season.
This is not so obvious in qualifying, but it certainly is in races, where their consistency and tyre management has improved exponentially. And there are hopes of more to come, enough even to put them in the fight with Red Bull by perhaps mid-season.
“Very satisfying,” Sainz said. “We exactly improved the car in the places that we wanted to improve it, and Suzuka proves it. Still, places like Suzuka, we are not as quick as the Red Bull, which is the target. But as soon as we bring a good upgrade to the car that goes in the right direction, hopefully it can get us closer.
“We’ve improved everywhere, and especially in the race pace. It also allows us to have more strategic flexibility, that last year we didn’t have.
“I think they are definitely going to have an advantage in the first third of the season until we bring one or two upgrades that makes us fight them more consistently.
“But by that time maybe it’s a bit too late with the advantage that they might have in the championship.”
The effect of team principal Frederic Vasseur, employed to clean up the mess the team was in at the end of 2022, is plain to see, and there appears to be a positive forward momentum at Maranello.
Vasseur said: “We made a huge step on the high-speed (corners) compared to last year and Suzuka is a good example and on the tyre management. But now we have other weaknesses. It is always a compromise; you improve somewhere and you lose somewhere else.
“Overall, if you compare with Red Bull on the last four races of last year to this year, to the first four events this season, we have made a decent step forward.
“For sure they are still a little bit ahead. The target is to be be able to put them under pressure and with pressure you do more mistakes. It was not the case today but I hope it will be the case in the future.”