Tasmanian Senator Tammy Tyrrell’s decision to quit the Jacqui Lambie Network – less than two years into her Senate career – was always going to get tongues wagging.
The move, reminiscent of Senator Lambie herself quitting the Palmer United Party in 2014, was surprising given the fact the pair had worked together for the better part of a decade – Senator Tyrrell having been Senator Lambie’s long-time office manager.
But it is the timing that truly makes it a water cooler moment.
The news came just days after the Tasmanian election in which candidates from the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) will enter state parliament for the first time.
And it’s looking like they’ll hold the balance of power in a hung parliament.
It raises the question, if Senator Lambie couldn’t make it work with someone she’d known for almost a decade, and sat in the Senate with, how will she go with the parliamentary newbies?
Will they stay true to her values, vote as a block, or follow in the footsteps of previous members of the party and quit? Senator Lambie herself has previously said she wouldn’t stop them.
If the candidates Senator Lambie has “hand-picked” turn out to be anywhere near as colourful as she is, it’ll certainly make for an interesting term of parliament — particularly given the Liberals look to be relying on them to govern.
Premier Jeremy Rockliff had called an early election to try and regain a Liberal majority, but the state handed him another hung parliament instead.
The Liberals are predicted to hold just 15 out of 35 seats, short of the 18 needed to govern.
Labor came off even worse, with the party expected to hold 10 seats.
Now the Liberals need to find at least three willing MPs to offer them confidence and supply — and they’re eyeing off the fresh-to-parliament Lambies.
“We will deliver our plan with their support, I hope,” deputy leader Michael Ferguson told reporters earlier this week.
The Lambie network has so far claimed two seats and is anticipated to win a third. Although it’s still unclear which candidates have won, aside from Rebekah Pentland in Bass.
But little is known about the individual candidates, beyond the bios on the party’s website.
Ms Pentland, the only confirmed incoming MP, is a small business owner and mother of three who is passionate about healthcare.
The other possibles include a private investigator, a former mayor of the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead in the United Kingdom, and a business owner and carer.
In absence of any policies – something the Liberals attacked them for during the election — the best indication of their values is a discussion paper released in mid-March.
According to that paper, the issues the candidates are focusing on include health, housing and cost of living.
They also want to see an “Integrity Commission with teeth” and more transparent government, with a three-month turnaround on right to information (RTI) requests.
They are views not dissimilar to Labor and the Greens, who both called for improved transparency and integrity in the state. The Liberals on the other hand indicated they were satisfied with the system as it is.
And the differences don’t stop there.
While the Liberals drew the ire of both environmentalists and the forestry industry by announcing mid-election that they wanted to open up a section of native forest that’s been locked up for years, the “JLN candidates don’t support an expansion of native forest logging”.
They’re also wary of the salmon industry, an industry both major parties are big supporters of.
Then there’s youth crime. While the Liberals announced a “crackdown” on “juvenile career criminals” — which was slammed by the state’s Children’s Commissioner — the Lambies argue “locking kids up turns them into bigger criminals”.
They want to put more money into programs to turn children’s lives around. It’s arguably a similar stance to that of Labor, which promised to invest in JCP’s youth reform program.
In fact, in many cases the Lambies’ values, if they hold true, appear more similar to those of Labor – which has currently secured just 10 seats, eight short of forming a government in its own right.
Not that siding with the Lambies is even an option for Labor. The party’s administrative committee threw in the towel the day after the election, forming the view that Labor would not seek to form government.
But while the fate of the next government could be in their hands, Senator Lambie, who won’t be sitting in the Tasmanian parliament, has been the JLN candidates’ spokesperson since the election.
Two of them, however — Ms Pentland and Lyons candidate Troy Pfitzner — have told the Mercury newspaper Senator Tyrrell’s departure won’t affect the Lambie network at the state level.
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While there’s little doubt these candidates were elected in large part because of the name of the party they stood for, there’s no guarantee Senator Lambie’s candidates will share her values.
Take for example the proposed AFL stadium. Senator Lambie’s distaste is on the record — she told the Tasmanian Premier to “stick it up [his] bum” — but some of her candidates are known to be pro-stadium.
So how much influence will Senator Lambie ultimately wield?
The senator has said she will take a “mentoring” role with the future MPs, but the way they vote will be up to them and their communities, which they’ll consult.
“The only people that can tell the candidates how to vote are the people that voted for them,” the website reads.
The party will also pick a leader and there will be a “small board” above them.
But while Senator Lambie has been clear she doesn’t want to “smother” her new MPs, she is counting on them to reflect her values.
“They are adults, they’ll have to come up to those decisions [on voting], she told ABC earlier this month.
“I just hope and pray that I have picked the right people.”
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