Dodgers Dugout: Season preview — Dodgers are the team to beat in NL West again

Sports Desk

9 months ago

Occasional Digest - a story for you

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell and here we go again: Enjoying a probable division title while dreading the postseason for the entire season.

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Despite the two games in South Korea last week, today will feel like the real season opener when the Dodgers take the field at home against the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Dodgers should win the NL West again. But there are some things we can look forward to this season, such as …

— At some point this season, the Dodgers will run off a string of victories and look like the best team in history. They aren’t.

— At some point this season, the Dodgers will run off a string of losses and look like the most inept team in history. They aren’t.

— At some point during the item above, my inbox will be flooded with readers bemoaning the terrible Dodgers and how they have no chance to reach the postseason. Then when the Dodgers turn it around and reach the postseason, there will be no followup email saying “My bad.” (Seriously, this happens every season, usually from the same people each year.)

— Since he won’t be pitching, Shohei Ohtani will in effect be spending the first year of his 10-year, $700-million deal replacing J.D. Martinez at DH. So, Ohtani needs to hit better than Martinez did. In 113 games, Martinez hit .271/.321/.572 with 27 doubles, 33 homers and 103 RBIs.

— Max Muncy will make us pine for the glory days of the deft fielding of Pedro Guerrero at third base. But he will also rebound somewhat offensively, hitting closer to the .249 of 2021 rather than the .212 of last season.

— Mookie Betts will make plays at shortstop that will make it look like he has played there every game in the majors.

— Will Gavin Lux settle down after missing last season and be a key contributor at second base?

— Will the Dodgers, at some point, acquire a shortstop or make Miguel Rojas the starter?

— Will Clayton Kershaw be able to return after the All-Star break and look close to his old self?

— Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto figure things out? Prediction: He might not be the ace everyone was expecting, but he will become a solid, dependable starter, much like Kenta Maeda was.

— Dave Roberts will manage the team to around 95 wins, but there will be a small but vocal group of fans who want him fired after every loss. Last season, we did a poll asking readers if Roberts should remain as manager. 73% of the 16,000 respondents said yes. We’ll do a new poll below.

— James Outman hit .222 in the last month of last season and was hitless in the postseason. Tired from a long season or did the league figure him out? We’ll find out.

— In his first five full seasons with the team, Chris Taylor hit .265/.343/.461, good for an OPS+ of 113. The last two seasons, he hit .228/.314/.395, for an OPS+ of 94. Is that his new level of hitting? This season will tell that tale.

— Will Walker Buehler be able to come back in late April and pitch like he used to?

— Will Jason Heyward maintain the gains at the plate he made last season?

— The team used 39 pitchers last season. Will they be able to avoid all the injuries that have plagued them and cut that down to a more manageable number?

— Will they rue the day they traded Ryan Pepiot? It appears he has locked down the No. 5 starter role with Tampa Bay.

— Will Alex Vesia pitch better this season as a key left-hander in the bullpen?

Those are just a few of the many things to watch this season. It should be another fun ride with a lot of wins and some frustrating losses. As we all hold our breath, waiting for another potentially crushing postseason.

Prediction

NL West final standings

1. Dodgers
2. Arizona
3. San Diego
4. San Francisco
5. Colorado

Rotation switch

Tyler Glasnow and Yamamoto were the two starters against the Padres in South Korea. However, in the opening four-game set with St. Louis, Glasnow will be followed by Bobby Miller, followed by Yamamoto.

Yamamoto had a rough spring and gave up five runs in one inning against the Padres, but this is not being called a demotion. Roberts said the move was to get additional rest for Yamamoto. He gets an extra day off here, and another extra day off before his next start because the Dodgers have next Thursday off.

Will Smith is locked in

Will Smith agreed to a 10-year, $140-million deal on Wednesday. That’s quite a bargain, getting that good a catcher for $14 million a year.

“There’s no organization more committed to winning a World Series,” Smith said Wednesday at a news conference at Dodger Stadium. “That’s the most important thing to me when it comes to baseball. Looking forward to these next 10 years.”

What does this mean for the quality catchers behind Smith in the minors, such as Dalton Rushing and Diego Cartaya? It’s not like you can move one of them to DH, because Ohtani blocks them there. Or to first, because Freddie Freeman is signed through 2027. And the Dodgers have several outfield prospects, so moving them there creates a different logjam.

Having too much talent is a nice problem to have. Could someone be traded for a shortstop at the trade deadline? These are things worth keeping an eye on.

Opening day ceremonies

For those going to the home opener, you have this to look forward to, according to the Dodgers:

Pregame ceremonies will include a flyover with a KC-135 from March Air Reserve Base and three F15s from Fresno Air National Guard Base. A United States Armed Forces Joint Color Guard will present our nation’s colors.

Anthem: Josh Groban

Centerfield Plaza: Top Shelf Brass Band

Military Hero of the Game: U.S. Navy Pharmacist Mate 2nd Class Charles Cram, World War II Veteran

How many wins?

The day the Ohtani problems were announced, I got an email with the average Vegas sportsbooks win totals for each team this season. What better time to share it?

Dodgers 103.5

Braves 101.5

Astros 93.5

Yankees 90.5

Orioles 89.5

Phillies 89.5

Rangers 88.5

Twins 87.5

Mariners 87.5

Blue Jays 86.5

Cardinals 84.5

Rays 84.5

Cubs 83.5

Diamondbacks 83.5

Giants 83.5

Padres 83.5

Mets 81.5

Reds 81.5

Tigers 80.5

Guardians 79.5

Red Sox 77.5

Marlins 77.5

Brewers 76.5

Pirates 75.5

Royals 73.5

Angels 72.5

Nationals 66.5

White Sox 61.5

Rockies 59.5

Athletics 57.5

Odds to win the World Series:

Dodgers +320

Braves +450

Astros +700

Yankees +900

Rangers +1400

Orioles +1400

Phillies +1500

Blue Jays +1800

Mariners +2000

Twins +2100

Rays +3000

Cardinals +3000

Cubs +3500

Diamondbacks +4000

Mets +4500

Giants +4500

Padres +5000

Reds +5500

Guardians +6000

Red Sox +6000

Tigers +7000

Brewers +9000

Marlins +9000

Royals +15000

Angels +18000

Pirates +20000

Nationals +25000

White Sox +25000

Athletics +50000

Rockies +50000

The roster

The official 26-man roster won’t be announced until this morning, so here’s a guess. If past years are any indications, I have one of the relievers wrong.

Catchers (2)
Austin Barnes
Will Smith

Infielders (6)
Mookie Betts
Freddie Freeman
Kiké Hernández
Gavin Lux
Max Muncy
Miguel Rojas

Outfielders (4)
Teoscar Hernández
Jason Heyward
James Outman
Chris Taylor

Designated Hitter (1)
Shohei Ohtani

Starters (5)
Tyler Glasnow
Bobby Miller
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
James Paxton
Gavin Stone

Relievers (8)
Ryan Brasier
Michael Grove
Daniel Hudson
Kyle Hurt
Joe Kelly
Evan Phillips
Alex Vesia
Ryan Yarbrough

Brusdar Graterol will probably still be on the 15-day IL because of hip and right shoulder discomfort. Blake Treinen is also on the IL because of a bruised lung.