After a five-and-a-half week election campaign, Tasmanians have cast their votes to decide who will sit in the next state parliament.
As polls predicted, majority government eluded both the Liberal and Labor parties. It means the party that forms government — in minority — will need to negotiate with others in the parliament.
With no clear winner emerging as counting got underway last night, let’s unpack what the results tell us so far, and what happens next.
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Which party received the most votes?
ABC election analyst Antony Green said it was likely the Liberals would hold 14 of the 35 seats in the House of Assembly and Labor 10.
Premier Jeremy Rockliff has described the Liberals’ result as a win for the party, despite it falling short of the desired 18 seats needed to form government in its own right, and recording the worst result for the Tasmanian Liberal Party in the past decade.
Mr Rockliff asked for an election more than a year early because he wanted to regain majority government after Lara Alexander and John Tucker quit the party and moved the cross bench.
Mr Rockliff said Tasmanians had “not voted for a change of government” and he would seek to form a new, minority government.
“Make no mistake, this has been a very poor result for the Labor Party of Tasmania — what looks like their lowest primary vote ever,” he said.
He said it was incumbent upon the new parliament to “work together, to put aside our differences, to ensure that we work day in and day out for Tasmanians right across this beautiful state.”
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Has Labor leader Rebecca White conceded defeat?
Not quite.
“There is a lot that is unclear about tonight, but it’s clear Tasmania has rejected the Liberals,” Ms White said last night.
“Tasmanians have humbled a Premier who called an early election expecting to get a majority government.”
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Ms White said the government would be formed in the next few weeks, once the composition of the parliament is known.
She said the election results demonstrated there had been a “significant shift” in politics in Tasmania — an acknowledgement that minority governments would be more likely in the future as voters turn away from major parties.
When will we know who’s who in the new parliament?
We already know some of the people who will be re-elected or elected to the House of Assembly, but the full counting of votes will take some time.
It could take up to two weeks before preferences are distributed, and it could be three weeks before the results are declared.
However, it’s clear the Tasmanian Greens have made significant gains this election — the party could have as many as six seats in the new parliament.
Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff told a packed tally room “things sure were looking good for the Greens”.
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“Whatever the final outcome of the next few weeks, the Greens will return to parliament, further empowered to fight for Tasmanians who needed hospital bed and a secure home,” Dr Woodruff said.
“Our message this election was that change is needed and change is possible, and we’re fully committed to stepping into the next parliament with this in mind.”
Another familiar face likely to remain in Tasmanian parliament is former Labor leader turned independent David O’Byrne.
In a rebuke of Rebecca White’s leadership of the Labor party, Mr O’Byrne said this was an election “where Labor should be in a position to form government”.
“It’s a Liberal government that has lost so much talent, that has controversy as far as the eye can see, they haven’t been a good government yet the Labor Party can barely build a vote that gets them close to government, so I think someone in the Labor needs to take responsibility for this,” he said.
Who are the new faces?
With two extra seats in each electorate, there will be at least 10 new faces in the parliament.
So far, we know television and radio presenter Rob Fairs will be elected in Bass for the Liberals.
Labor will also have a new face in Franklin — but it’s not yet clear which of its candidates will be elected alongside incumbent MP Dean Winter.
Two state upper house members — Labor’s Josh Willie and the Liberals’ Jane Howlett — have been successful in their bids for seats in the lower house.
Former senator Eric Abetz has also been successful in his bid to return to politics, but hosed down allegations from Greens senator Nick McKim he had his eyes on the leadership of the Tasmanian Liberal Party.
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Jacquie Petrusma, who was elected at the last election but quit mid-term, will also return.
Hobart Deputy Lord Mayor Helen Burnet is a possibility for the Greens in Clark, and Cecily Rosol could come in as a Greens MP in Bass.
And what about people who have lost their seats?
Both John Tucker and Lara Alexander, who quit the Liberal Party to sit on the cross bench, failed in their bids to be re-elected as independents.
The Liberals’ Simon Wood is not guaranteed to be returned in Bass.
