Less than two years after losing his Senate seat, Liberal Eric Abetz is poised to make a return to politics – this time in the Tasmanian parliament.
But is it guaranteed?
His battle in the southern seat of Franklin will be one to watch on Saturday night when counting starts in the state election at 6pm.
In Tasmania, seven MPs are elected in each of the five electorates, for a total of 35.
It means there are mini-contests playing out throughout.
And with every seat vital in winning either a slim majority – or a loose minority – there are key battles for the sixth and seventh seats in each of the five electorates.
Franklin – Abetz and O’Byrne have points to prove
Former senator Eric Abetz’s run in Franklin has been one of the more curious aspects of the election.
Despite his nationwide political profile, the Christian conservative hasn’t spoken to the media at any official Liberal announcements. But he’s been advertising quite heavily.
Labor has been keen to remind Tasmanians at every opportunity that Mr Abetz is running, pointing out his opposition to a ban on LGBTIQA conversion practices, arguing that he has leadership ambitions, and would drag the Liberals to the right.
But Mr Abetz easily won preselection from the local Liberals in Franklin, indicating he has strong party support – particularly around the key population base of Kingston.
He’s almost certain to be elected.
The Liberals have several other prospects in Franklin, including the returning conservative Jacquie Petrusma and cabinet minister Nic Street, one of the increasingly few moderates left in the party.
Whether they win two, three, or four seats will be crucial in whether they can approach majority.
Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff will retain her seat, along with Labor’s Dean Winter and a likely second Labor candidate – either Toby Thorpe or Kaspar Deane – with a push for a third.
It leaves a crucial battle for the seventh seat.
Former Labor leader, independent David O’Byrne, has demonstrated strong personal support at previous elections.
A victory for him would mean one less seat for Labor or the Liberals. His chances at success should become clear after a few hours of counting.
Lyons – Tucker attempts to disrupt Liberal majority, again
Independent John Tucker threw the Liberals into minority last year – now he will attempt to prevent them from getting majority.
His personal support was modest at the last election, and he could have alienated a lot of his Liberal supporter base, meaning he will need to pick up additional rural voters in the vast seat of Lyons.
For independents to stand any chance, they need to achieve at least six per cent of first preferences.
It could be clear within a few hours of counting if he will get anywhere near being re-elected.
The Liberals should comfortably win three seats – Guy Barnett, Mark Shelton and Jane Howlett – and, like in Franklin, push for a fourth, in a contest with Mr Tucker.
Labor’s Rebecca White and Jen Butler should also be re-elected early, but the party lacks a genuinely high profile third candidate to capitalise on Labor’s support in outer northern Hobart, and southern Launceston.
It could open the door for the Greens’ Tabatha Badger to pick up a seat, or even the Jacqui Lambie Network – although its lack of a lead candidate could hurt its chances.
Braddon – Lambie faces challenge from all sides on home turf
The north-west electorate of Braddon is seen as the Jacqui Lambie Network’s best chance at a seat, given Ms Lambie hails from Devonport.
But her party faces a challenge from all sides.
Her candidates risk splitting their votes, given there isn’t a chosen “lead”.
Independent Craig Garland, a local fisherman, has polled between three and 10 per cent at recent state and federal elections, making him one of the curve balls in Braddon.
His presence could further complicate JLN’s push for the seventh seat.
The Liberals’ primary vote has been increasing in Braddon, making it their strongest electorate by a comfortable margin.
They should win four seats: Premier Jeremy Rockliff, cabinet ministers Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch, and another Liberal candidate.
Labor can rely on two: Shane Broad and Anita Dow, but a third could be a stretch.
Clark – Squeeze on for independents
The Hobart-based seat of Clark offers something for every political party: from the working class northern suburbs, to inner city progressives, property investors, business owners, public servants and professionals.
Labor can pick up two seats through Josh Willie and Ella Haddad, and the Liberals should pick up two with Madeleine Ogilvie and Simon Behrakis.
Greens deputy leader Vica Bayley will also grab one – leaving two remaining.
Independent Kristie Johnston has proven her strong personal support at council and state elections, and should be re-elected.
Independent Sue Hickey lost out to the Liberals last time round, but this time her path could be clearer, given it’s unlikely the Liberals will have improved their support in Clark since the last election.
Two other prominent independents and councillors – Ben Lohberger on the left, Louise Elliot on the right – face uphill battles to make inroads.
The Greens vote in Hobart might be on the rise, and a second seat would be a major win.
Clark can offer up surprises, so the seventh seat is one to watch.
Bass – Liberals look to another TV personality
In 2021, then-premier Peter Gutwein’s huge vote-winning power was crucial for the Liberals in the Launceston-centric seat of Bass, but he’s since resigned from parliament.
The deputy premier – Christian conservative Michael Ferguson – has some local popularity, but the Liberals need more brand recognition.
They recently won consecutive upper house seats with well-known Tasmanian television personalities – news presenter Jo Palmer, and fishing program host Nick Duigan.
They’ve returned to the well again, this time with former sports presenter Rob Fairs running in Bass.
He should grab a second seat for the Liberals, and backbencher Simon Wood with a third. The Liberals will aim for a fourth, but that need an unlikely surge in support to make up for the loss of Mr Gutwein.
Whether the Liberals have enough support for a fourth seat will be key to their attempt for majority.
Labor’s Janie Finlay and Michelle O’Byrne shouldn’t have trouble being re-elected, but the party again lacks high-profile vote-winning power among its other candidates – although Will Gordon featured prominently as a whistleblower during the recent commission of inquiry.
Launceston has progressive pockets, offering an opportunity for the Greens’ Cecily Rosol.
JLN also received a decent result in opinion polls in Bass.
Of course, anything can happen on election day — and the shift from 25 to 35 seats only adds to the variables.
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