| Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff Date: Sunday, 10 March Kick-off: 15:00 GMT |
| Coverage: Watch live on BBC One, BBC iPlayer and online from 14:20 GMT; listen on BBC Sport website, BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra (second half), BBC Radio Wales, Radio Cymru; text commentary and highlights on BBC Sport website and app. |
It is fair to say the Wales rugby side could do with a win. Any sort of win.
Actually, not just Warren Gatland’s squad. Welsh rugby in general needs a victory to galvanise the nation.
Wherever you look in the professional game in Wales, losing has become an unwanted habit with three defeats in the Six Nations so far this season.
Italy’s victory against Scotland means Gatland’s side are facing the prospect of a first wooden spoon in 21 years.
So Wales remain the only side not to win a game in this year’s tournament and are rooted to the bottom of the table.
Two Saturday spectacular Six Nations showdowns will be followed by what Wales and France can serve up in Cardiff on Sunday afternoon.
Papering over the cracks
Wales have struggled in the Six Nations in recent times with three fifth-placed finishes in the last four years.
The exception was when Wales won the title in 2021, symbolising the boom and bust nature of Welsh rugby.
The four consecutive victories of Gatland’s side in the World Cup last year are now becoming a distant memory.
The Under-20s have been soundly beaten by England, Ireland and France in recent weeks. The four Welsh professional sides are struggling in the bottom half of the United Rugby Championship, with only Ospreys having a chance of a play-off finish or European second-tier success.
The regions are having to cope with the reduction in money provided by the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU).
There has been a narrative created that Wales will reap the benefits in a few years, having been forced to expose young players to top-flight rugby earlier in their career. Short-term pain for long-term gain.
Gatland says Wales will be a good side in the future and a gem like Cardiff full-back Cameron Winnett has emerged.
In the past, Gatland has produced good sides that have won Grand Slams and reached World Cup semi-finals.
That success papered over the cracks of Welsh rugby’s problems. Former Wales prop Chris Horsman says they should have “fixed the roof when the sun is shining”. Welsh rugby bosses have failed to do that.
For the present, Wales need to celebrate success again, however small. Either against France this weekend or Italy six days later.
Centres of attention
Switching captain Dafydd Jenkins from lock to flanker and asking him to make his first professional start in the number six shirt could be considered Gatland’s most controversial selection for this game.
Not this week though, with his centre combination proving crucial.
The last time Gatland dropped an iconic number 13 and brought in a J Roberts, it ended happily. That was when Brian O’Driscoll was left out of the third Test for the British and Irish Lions against Australia in Sydney in 2013 with Jamie Roberts coming in to partner Jonathan Davies.
This time Gatland has left out George North in favour of Scarlets centre Joe Roberts, the midfield changes completed with Owen Watkin replacing Nick Tompkins.
It raised a few eyebrows to drop a pair who have provided some stability in a much-changed side following the World Cup.
There are those who understand the rationale at this early stage of a World Cup cycle to test out an alternative midfield partnership.
Others have been left baffled that two of Wales’ most consistent performers – with 155 caps between them – are not required on this occasion. Masterstroke or misjudgement? Time will tell.
France’s World Cup hangover
Are France in crisis? That has been the question raised this week. Les Bleus will have to deteriorate more spectacularly before they can convince beleaguered Welsh supporters they understand what a national rugby crisis is.
There are problems though under Fabien Galthie. France, with former Wales defence coach Shaun Edwards in the ranks, had to cope with huge expectation and pressure to win last year’s World Cup on home soil but that ended in devastating fashion with a 29-28 defeat against quarter-final opponents South Africa.
Then mercurial captain Antoine Dupont switched to playing sevens in the lead up to the Paris Olympics and Les Bleus have simply not recovered. They were outclassed by Ireland, pushed to the limit by Scotland and then drew at home against Italy.
Will a first loss to Wales in Cardiff since 2018 now follow? Recent history does not favour Wales, having lost their last four Six Nations games against France, although two of those defeats were by just four points.
The home side have an opportunity to end that sequence, and victory over France would do wonders for this Wales squad. It remains a tall order, but the odds are shorter than they were a month ago.
Unflattering stats
Wales’ recent Six Nations record mirrors the bad old days of the late 1980s and early 1990s and early 2000s.
Wales have not finished bottom of the table for 21 years when they lost all five games of the 2003 tournament under Gatland’s fellow New Zealander Steve Hansen. Two years later Wales won a Grand Slam under Mike Ruddock. A repeat seems unlikely at the moment.
Worryingly for Wales, since their title triumph in 2021, they have suffered 11 Six Nations defeats from 13 starts, toppling only Scotland two years ago and Italy last season. Ten of those losses have come in the last 11 games.
Wales have lost their last five home games in the tournament, their worst record in Cardiff since the tournament was expanded in 2000.
With two home games to come in less than a week, Wales have control of their own destiny, but margins are fine and Gatland knows what is at stake.
“We feel we’ve been going ok but want to try and put a complete performance together,” said Gatland.
“There have been parts of our game we’ve been happy with and things we need to fix.
“There’s been no lack of motivation, I can’t question the effort of these players. People are saying if it’s a challenge to get them up for the next game, but it’s not.
“They understand the responsibility of putting on that jersey. We know we’re not there and there’s a lot of work to do but we’ve put ourselves in games and teams under pressure.
“We know we’re on a journey, but we’re trying to fast-track things as quickly as possible. A win on Sunday would be a good stepping stone. We’re desperate to get that win.”
With that final sentiment, Gatland echoes the hopes of a rugby nation.