President Muizzu immediately demanded the withdrawal of Indian Military personnel keeping with his disinclination to accommodate India which was the cornerstone of his election campaigns. Pressing for non-renewal of the Hydrology pact with India signed in 2019, he also commenced the operationalisation of the FTA signed with China (PRC) in 2017, simultaneously visiting Turkey and China for his first and second state visits, discontinuing the tradition of India-First Policy of the Solih Government. All these actions and the disparaging remarks of the now-suspended Maldives Ministers towards PM Modi highlighted rapidly deteriorating relations between two historically close and geographically proximate states.
Geo-Strategic and Geopolitics of Maldives in the India-China Pivot
Maldives is very important for India due to the existence of India’s Sea lanes of communication(SLOCs) which pass around Maldives and most of India’s trade and energy supplies transit through this route. Secondly, Kerela and Lakshadweep’s security hinges on Maldives’s stability as it forms an outer buffer zone for India. Also, China’s PLN(People’s Liberation Navy’s increasing presence) in the Indian Ocean and even the recent arrival of research vessels from China (Xiang Yang Hong 03) in Male has deepened India’s concerns. India’s role in facilitating development and enabling cooperation is acknowledged by many political parties like Ibrahim Solih’s MDP. India currently has twenty-five thousand Indians living there who are working as doctors, teachers, construction workers, tailors, technicians, nurses etc.; their safety is paramount to India. Additionally, Seventhly, India cannot risk the radicalisation of Maldives which may lead to adverse downstream consequences for regional security in general and Indian security in specific.
China, for its part, is compelled to secure its maritime interest and SLOCs which also transports its energy supplies. It wants to increase its power and status by constructing bases in the Indian Ocean Region. China also wants to win mining rights and conduct bathymetric and topographic surveys of the region. The threat of Chinese vessels possessing dual-use capabilities poses one of the biggest security challenges to India. Geopolitically Maldives constitutes a key component in the Chinese stratagem of boxing India via String of Pearls.
What is Maldives Strategy
President Muizzu’s hostile reactions with India stems from his own political compulsions so some commentators like Mark.C.Cogan are optimists that this is more of rhetoric than substance as costs of decoupling with India to diversify exports , agricultural supplies and healthcare coverage beyond India is considerable for a small country like Maldives. He also argues that Maldives will soon realise PRC’s Debt-trap diplomacy where Sri Lanka is a case in point of how its Executive had to plead China to restructure its loan for an IMF bailout package. The recent moderation of stance by President Muizzu saying any withdrawal cannot happen with short tempers show the limits of democratic decision-making under public pressure.
The recent split of former President Abdul Yameen and President Muizzu with Yameen forming a new party “People’s National Front” makes it imperative for Muizzu to prove his supporters he is a bigger Anti-India advocate and a staunch advocate of Maldives Sovereignty to ensure there is no split in their Anti-India loyalist’s base. This also explains why he has kept March 15 as a deadline for withdrawal of troops as the parliamentary(Majlis) elections are on March 17th.This election is crucial for MDP as they have made it a referendum for India-Out and China-In policy of President Muizzu. Muizzu is under pressure from MDP as a Maldivian boy died due to his refusal to use an Indian military operated air ambulance.
What are India’s options ?
India has limited options when it comes to Maldives. Mark.C Cogan argues Maldives won’t be able to change its Foreign Policy much due to the inherent limitations of geography. But the recent push by Muizzu to diversify its resources and import partners even at great political economic risk asks for a sustained quiet diplomacy from India. The Indian reaction at the insults levelled by the now suspended Maldives Junior Ministers is an example where India used quiet diplomacy rather than public outrage. But Indian social media constant attacks may not work in India’s favour. So, India needs to consistently used sustained diplomacy as India shares a lot of commons with Maldives which includes geographical access, ,historical ties , political ties, people to people connectivity etc. India’s deep political ties is showcased by recent high-level exchanges done by both sides in 2023 and annual joint exercises like Ekuverin. When Abdulla Shahid became the UNGA President , India has used its instrumental diplomatic clout to ensure its victory and even politely telling Afghanistan that they cannot support them.
Secondly ,India can leverage People to people (P2P) relations – Give all the examples of India using its resources for its gains. India has always been a 1st responder like in Operation Cactus , 2004 Tsunami, 2014 incident of acute water supply crisis and even has stood beside Maldivians through Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital(IGMH), Faculty of Engineering Technology(FET) and Faculty of hospitality and Tourism Studies etc. India also sent highest no of tourists to Maldives from 2020 to 2023 and the recent statement of Maldives Association of Tourism Industry(MATI) condemning derogatory remarks against India is an instance of deep-rooted connect. So India always can increase the force of narratives supporting India-Maldives historical relations and blame any downturn in relations on president Muizzu. This is working to some extent as Muizzu has moderated his stance.
Thirdly, The recent mayoral elections of Male which contains the one-third of population of Maldives was won by MDP’s candidate which is favourably predisposed towards India. India has an official policy of not commenting or taking sides in internal elections of other sovereign countries but it can try to use its non-governmental leverage by Track II diplomacy to ensure President Muizzu alone cannot sideline India.
Fourthly, India can rope in other Quadrilateral Security Dialogue(QUAD) partners as any zero-sum game in Indo-pacific at the expense of China is a welcome red-carpet for its partners even including France who really wants to make sure International Shipping Lines(ISL) are not compromised and can collaborate with India for Maldives’ security.
Fifthly, India can use a use a soft-embargo before India can silently make lives difficult without any sanctions to create more displeasure against the ruling dispensation .But this is a risky strategy and needs to followed as a measure of the last resort.
Way Forward
India has often been called a reluctant power due to its inherent hesitation to play a bigger role in South Asia and beyond .But the deep-rooted Chinese investments which comes with strings and strategic imperatives forces India to quickly adapt to the changing geopolitical situations. India knows high literacy rates in Maldives creates a high aspiration society with a growing economy ,respect for its sovereignty and demands for independent foreign policy. Maldives foreign policy’s will continue to determine by three ideas of small size, strategic location and its religious identity So, India is trying to accommodative to new realities and Maldives needs to do its bit to ensure it does not use its largely Muslim populace to create rifts in its time-tested partnerships to make Indian Ocean Region a geopolitical conquest where one wins at the other’s expense.