Macron’s Broken Relationship With Olaf Scholz Is Hurting Efforts to Defend Ukraine

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(Bloomberg) — French President Emmanuel Macron had a clear message at his Paris summit of European leaders: help Ukraine win the war and keep Russia’s Vladimir Putin guessing.

It was undermined by the subtext of his speech: his contempt for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

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Macron’s hints earlier this week about deploying troops in Ukraine were deliberately ambiguous, according to officials, and intended to create uncertainty in the mind of Russian military planners. But the French president’s whatever-it-takes message went against the express wishes of Scholz’s office, according to an official familiar with these discussions.

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Sure enough, Scholz was quick to publicly contradict Macron’s position once it made headlines. The German chancellor categorically ruled out the possibility that European nations would send troops. 

The disagreement highlights the two leaders’ longstanding difficulties in working together, their different styles, but also how these tensions are spilling over to jeopardize the course of a conflict that’s most recently been edging in Russia’s favor.

Macron sees Scholz as a leader without courage and ambition who cannot think beyond the short term, according to one French official. The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity like others interviewed by Bloomberg for this article, pointed to a lack of chemistry between the pair from day one.

Close aides to the chancellor also acknowledge the two don’t get along. In Berlin, Macron is seen as a monarchical figure who is better at issuing grand visions than delivering. 

That perception means another of Macron’s jibes was not well received in Berlin: speaking after his Paris meeting, the French president called out allies who had offered Ukraine mere “helmets and sleeping bags” at the eve of war — a clear dig at Germany.

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Those comments rankled with the chancellery because Germany has, since the helmets episode, become the second-biggest donor of military aid to Ukraine after the US, even though it is leery of drawing NATO allies into the war by sending either troops or its most advanced weapons. 

The spat between Ukraine’s allies occurs at a difficult moment in its campaign to repel Russia’s invasion. With European nations falling short on artillery pledges and vital US aid held up in Congress, Ukrainian officials are concerned Russian troops may break through their defenses by summer, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

At Monday’s meeting, which brought together 20 European leaders with officials from the US, Canada and the UK, Macron said he wanted to dispel doubts over Kyiv’s ability to resist in a show of unity, according to an attendee.

But that unity didn’t take long to fracture, in part because of the dispute between the heads of Europe’s two largest economies. Steffen Hebestreit, German government spokesman, told Bloomberg the disagreement was not between Macron and Scholz but between the French president and the wider group who thought his comments out of line. 

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“Regardless of this, and regardless of the very different basic types that Scholz and Macron are, they get along well and trust each other,” he said. 

The Elysee did not return a request for comment. 

Macron’s comments about ground troops drew a backlash from many allies and attention from Putin. Even so, they were welcomed in some of the countries bordering Russia whose officials he had sounded out ahead of the event, according to another attendee.

“We are an open book to Putin, he expects that tomorrow will bring neither Taurus nor ATACMS nor even sufficient amounts of ammunition,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis wrote on X, referring to the long-range missiles that both Germany and the US have been reluctant to provide. “It is imperative to change our approach, embrace strategic ambiguity, break taboos and include all available options in our toolkit,” he said, endorsing Macron’s position.

But perceptions that Germany isn’t doing enough irk the chancellor, given his country has spent much more on aid than its neighbor across the Rhine.

“I am very irritated by the lack of balance between what is really needed now and the debate about this one system,” Scholz said about the Taurus missiles earlier this week at a conference in Berlin. “What Ukraine lacks is ammunition for all possible distances.”

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According to the Kiel Institute, military commitments between January 2022 and January 2024 to Ukraine totaled €17.7 billion ($19 billion) from Germany and €0.64 billion from France. The French government says it has spent €3.8 billion, without providing a breakdown of those figures.

“The issue is that Macron’s position is weakened by the limited amount of military aid France has provided Ukraine so far, that isn’t on par with its profile as Europe’s strongest military power,” according to Rym Momtaz, a Paris-based researcher for the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

An eastern European official who has worked closely with the French and Germans said both leaders are seen as haughty, but at least Macron understands that something needs to be done. 

Allies point out that Scholz has not even joined Macron in openly calling for Ukrainian victory, instead stating only that Russia should not win the war and Ukraine not lose it. 

That caution underlines the very different domestic contexts for the pair. The French president will remain unchallenged until the end of his second term in 2027, when he cannot seek reelection. That’s in contrast to his beleaguered German counterpart, who battles to keep together an unruly three-way coalition that is losing support to the far-right AfD; a party whose opposition to sending weapons to Ukraine finds some favor with German voters.

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In the background of these political tensions is a reversal of relative economic fortunes since 2018, when France’s growth began outpacing Germany’s. France’s outlook for the near future is also markedly better after the energy crisis that tipped Germany — which long depended on Russian fossil fuels — into contraction last year.

Macron and Scholz, previously their countries’ economy and finance ministers, have known each other for many years. According to one person familiar with the matter, a turning point in their relationship was when Scholz suggested in 2018 that France should give up its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council in favor of a seat for the EU.

The French leader’s view is also shaped by his respect for Scholz’s predecessor, Angela Merkel, with whom he worked between 2017 and 2021.

In a hint of nostalgia, Macron said during Monday’s news conference: “I’ve known a world where Germany and France agreed with each other.”

—With assistance from Michael Nienaber, Alberto Nardelli, William Horobin and Ben Sills.

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