Who’s left?

With an election looming, none of the One Nation members’ preferred candidates have indicated they would stand in a future leadership contest, and there remains a lack of certainty over who will even be an MP after polling day. 

Constituency by constituency polling by YouGov earlier this year suggested both Mordaunt and Shapps could lose their seats in a Labour landslide, and so could a raft of the potential supporters of the various candidates. 

Under Tory party leadership rules, MPs whittle potential candidates down to a final two, who then make the case to grassroots Conservative members; they then have the final say on the next leader.

Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, who did a study on the future shape of the Conservative Party, believes the composition of moderate versus right-backing MPs after the election could be similar to the current situation, but points out MPs could switch allegiances to a candidate like Badenoch if it looks as though she is winning. 

“It all depends on what the landscape is after the election and who is left,” a third current minister said.  “It’s possible the balance of MPs between the left and the right remains the same. But it’s also about what the narrative is after the election — who gets the blame for the defeat.”

Global phenomenon 

Britain’s center-ground Tories will find little hope in looking for examples abroad of what happens after defeat for a party on the right.