Despite her undeniable capacity to act decisively in times of hardship, the former German minister’s iron-fist leadership style has sometimes put her at odds with EU capitals, whose support she will need to secure a second term. Still she is likely to gain support from the European Council. Only Hungary has been openly critical about her leadership.

On a range of sensitive topics, from her support to Israel in its war against Hamas to her China policy, she made decisions without consulting member states, sparking ire from EU diplomats — and her own commissioners — forced to play catch-up.

The so-called Pfizergate scandal, a reference to the texts she exchanged with the pharmaceutical giant’s CEO Albert Bourla to strike an enormous vaccine deal in 2021, has similarly tarnished her first term. It has led to a lawsuit from the New York Times against the Commission, for its failure to provide access to these texts.

Although attention to this case has so far been limited to Brussels circles, a court is still expected to rule on the legal battle in 2024. Politically, an unfavorable ruling would send an embarrassing signal and could have major implications for her second-term bid.

Von der Leyen will have to be formally nominated as her party’s lead candidate, or Spitzenkandidat. This will take place in a vote at the EPP’s electoral congress in Bucharest, Romania on March 6-7.

But she remains the frontrunner to preside over the European Commission for another five years.