Big Prabowo Win Elevates Unpredictable Ex-Soldier to World Stage

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(Bloomberg) — At a Singapore security forum last year, Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto left onlookers stunned when he delivered what appeared to be an impromptu peace plan to end the war in Ukraine.

The proposal, floated by the 72-year-old ex-general set to become Indonesia’s next president after a landslide election win on Wednesday, would’ve allowed Russia to keep its territorial gains it’s made — similar to a Chinese peace blueprint to end the conflict. European diplomats attacked the suggestion, while Ukraine’s foreign minister said it “sounds like a Russian plan.”

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Officials from Southeast Asia sought to clarify Prabowo’s remarks, highlighting how the war has become a global wedge issue. “You’ve got to understand that Pak Prabowo spoke as someone who has seen conflict firsthand,” Singapore Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen told reporters at the time. “His heart is in the right place.”

It later emerged that Prabowo hadn’t sought approval for the peace plan from Indonesian President Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, who asked for a clarification. Soon it disappeared from public discourse altogether. 

The episode shows how a Prabowo presidency, which would start in October, is likely to be much more uncertain than that of his predecessor, even though they are broadly aligned in sticking with Indonesia’s longstanding policy of neutrality in international relations. 

Prabowo is going to be “hard to predict,” said Alexander Arifianto, a senior fellow with the Indonesia program at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. “He promises continuity with the Jokowi administration and that might be so. But in defense and foreign policy we might be in for a surprise.”

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As Southeast Asia’s largest economy, holder of the world’s biggest nickel reserves, and a key member of emerging nations known as the Global South, Indonesia serves as a swing state on geopolitical problems like Russia’s war and has become increasingly important for the global energy transition. Like many other Southeast Asian countries, it’s also a key battleground in the geopolitical competition between the US and China, particularly as tensions rise over Taiwan and disputed territory in the South China Sea.

Jokowi built a reputation for quiet, careful diplomacy in raising Indonesia’s stature as an independent and neutral-minded middle power. In 2022, he was among the first Asian leaders to visit both Ukraine and Russia, where he hand-delivered a message to Vladimir Putin from Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy and offered to facilitate dialog between the two sides.

Those efforts paid off when Jokowi achieved a hard-fought consensus while hosting Group of 20 leaders later that year on the resort island of Bali. His government also played a key role in negotiations that led to the US exiting Afghanistan, and led efforts at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to hold the Myanmar junta accountable for continued violence against civilians.

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Despite efforts to reshape his image on social media as more likable and affable, Prabowo’s track record makes him much more of a question mark. The ex-general was once barred from the US for alleged human rights abuses, prompting American diplomats in 2008 to refer to him as a “poison pill” for many Indonesians who lived through Suharto’s dictatorship.

Other Powers Are ‘Jealous’

On the one hand, observers are confident Prabowo will seek to advance Indonesia’s longstanding positions, as he’s done over five years as defense minister. He’s repeatedly referred to both the US and China, for example, as “good friends.”

“Indonesia’s foreign policy has been very, very clear,” Prabowo said during an event in November. “From the early days of our independence and our sovereignty we have opted for an independent foreign policy guided by the principles of non-membership of any geopolitical bloc.” 

Others, however, see an outspoken military man who won’t shy away from speaking his mind on international affairs, in sharp contrast to Jokowi. In remarks after his election victory was apparent on Wednesday, Prabowo declared that “other powers are always jealous of a country as rich as ours.”

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“Prabowo and Trump and Putin — they have the same kind of traits and they probably understand each other better than Prabowo would understand Biden,” said Achmad Sukarsono, associate director and lead analyst for Indonesia at Control Risks, referring to former US president Donald Trump, who is once again running for office and leads in some polls against his incumbent rival Joe Biden. “All of them are strongmen on the right side of the spectrum.”

“On the world stage he will be more vocal in representing Indonesia and voicing Indonesia’s interests,” Sukarsono said of Prabowo. “Indonesia will not be the biggest invisible country anymore.”

Investor Concerns

In previous campaigns, Prabowo played up his military background and touted his nationalist, strongman image. This time around he opted for a softer approach portraying himself as a cat-loving grandpa to appeal to the nation’s young electorate, a strategy that paid off in a big way: Prabowo and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi’s eldest son, secured nearly 60% support in quick counts done by private pollsters.

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For the business community, the big question is whether he will follow through on campaign pledges to continue Jokowi’s economic policies. Prabowo has positioned himself as the candidate most able to advance that business-friendly agenda in a trillion-dollar economy that has largely enjoyed stable GDP growth, modest inflation and a surge in foreign direct investment in the last five years. 

The focus will now shift to who Jokowi puts in his cabinet, with investors hoping for the appointment of experienced technocrats to implement economic policies, according to Marc Ostwald, chief economist and global strategist at ADM Investor Services Int. Ltd. in London. 

“Prabowo’s manifesto was encouragingly moderate, and this has helped reassure international investors,” said Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics. “However, other than pledging to continue Jokowi’s business-friendly policies, he has had little to say about his plans for the economy.” 

—With assistance from Matthew Burgess and Claire Jiao.

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