While Buckingham Palace trying to play down the King’s cancer diagnosis — their opaque version of transparency revealed the health issue, but not the type of cancer nor the required treatment — there is a flaw in the royal “keep calm and carry on” credo.
Whatever happens next, the consequences are significant in both the short and long term.
Of course, everyone wants King Charles III to make a full recovery — even the Australian Republican Movement sent well wishes — and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s comment that the cancer has been “caught early” is very welcome news. But statistics tell us that cancer diagnoses have less successful outcomes the older we get and at 75, the King is just five years off the age when survival rates are at their lowest.
While it is wholly inappropriate to engage in wild conjecture about the King’s private health matters and the palace has urged reporters not to go down that road, this is the sovereign we are talking about.
It’s a singular job with pre-determined stand-ins, so health aside, it’s surely important to consider what will happen next.
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A small team of stand-ins
For the moment, the King is still carrying out his constitutional duties — the necessary government business that comes daily in red boxes and requires thorough scrutiny.
He is also remaining in contact with the UK prime minister for their regular schedule of one-on-one chats and hopes to add other important meetings to his private diary. But public-facing engagements are not possible until he has completed his treatment and doctors have approved a return to work.
Some of those engagements could fall on the shoulders of other members of the working royal family, actually a pretty small team, especially when you consider the Princess of Wales is at home recuperating following abdominal surgery and won’t be returning to work until after Easter.
And any speculation that Prince Harry might return to royal duties was dashed when his flying visit lasted barely 25 hours — his rift with his brother still very much intact.
So, will the King’s engagements now be shared out or will they be postponed or cancelled? Majesty magazine’s managing editor Joe Little thinks it’s unlikely William, Camilla and Anne will take on more. They are already under too much pressure, he says.
“From a media perspective we think that the pressure is on the Prince of Wales right now, given that his father will not be visible for some time, but I’m not sure that we will notice a significant increase in William’s official engagements, at least in the short term,” Little says.
“The thinking seems to be that his wife and family are William’s number one priority, so much of his official work might also continue behind the scenes.”
For her part, Queen Camilla is maintaining a full program of engagements throughout her husband’s treatment, a promise she made to the King. She is receiving a rapturous reception around the UK but again it’s unlikely she will take on more, Little says.
“I think it is only now that people are realising what an asset she is to the royal family, and more specifically, the value of her support for the King when the going gets tough.
“But I don’t anticipate a significant increase in Camilla’s official duties while her husband is out of action (she’s 76, after all), and that also applies to other working members of the family. The Princess Royal is already firing on all cylinders.”
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The Australia question
The big question for Australia is whether the King and Queen’s planned visit later this year will still go ahead and if the King can’t make the trip, will he dispatch his heir in his place?
“We don’t know if it will be weeks or months before Charles III is up and running again, so for now a question mark hangs over Canada and Australia, the first realm visits of the King’s reign,” Little says.
“Postponement would be regrettable, but sending the Prince and Princess of Wales as an interim measure would no doubt be welcomed by all concerned parties.”
If the King is unable to carry out his constitutional duties in the coming months, there are a number of other potential outcomes. If it is short-term — an operation or period of recuperation — two Counsellors of State will be appointed by the King to keep the business of government ticking over. He can choose from Queen Camilla, Prince William, Prince Edward and Princess Anne.
But if the King is “by reason of infirmity of mind or body incapable for the time being of performing royal functions” the Regency Act will install the Prince of Wales as Regent, to carry out all the sovereign’s roles within the UK.
For Australia, however, there is an added complication — a Regent and Counsellors of State cannot appoint a Governor-General and we are expecting a change in the vice-regal role in a few months’ time.
In the unthinkable scenario that the King is too ill to reign, he can choose to abdicate. But considering his long wait for this role, this outcome is highly unlikely.
“I don’t think Charles III will abdicate under any circumstance, given the vow he made during the first broadcast of his reign and his anointing at Westminster Abbey last year,” Little says.
While we engage in this game of “what ifs”, it’s also worth considering whether Prince William is really ready to take the next step in his role as Heir Apparent. Could he actually cope emotionally with being King in the near future?
Little feels William “clearly lacks the decades of training that his father had as Prince of Wales” and in his private life, he is focused on being the best father he can be. But Little adds, “there’s no reason to suggest that he wouldn’t cope if called upon to undertake Counsellor of State duties”.
And in a final piece of crystal ball gazing, I wonder if the British taxpayer would happily foot the bill for another coronation so soon? I don’t think so.
Juliet Rieden is royal correspondent and editor-at-large of The Australian Women’s Weekly.