Premier Jeremy Rockliff has his trigger for an early state election.
In a Stateline interview he was unequivocal: if Tasmania goes to an election before it’s due in May next year, it’ll be the fault of independents John Tucker and Lara Alexander.
Mr Rockliff said the deal he struck after the two independents defected from the Liberal Party to the crossbench simply isn’t working anymore.
And if they don’t agree to a new deal, which includes restricting the independents’ ability to do what they want, voters could be going to the polls much earlier than they expected.
“That is in the hands of Mr Tucker and Ms Alexander and of course I’ll have to consider my options of course if we cannot come to an agreement on how we move forward,” he said.
ABC News: Maren Preuss
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“We were elected by the Tasmanian people — a majority Liberal government — and the two independents, defectors, have to respect the Tasmanian people’s wishes that we were elected to deliver our policies firstly, and a majority government.”
It is the toughest Mr Rockliff has talked about his former colleagues, and reminiscent of the way he handled a stand-off with former attorney-general Elise Archer.
In that case, he issued an ultimatum: resign or guarantee us confidence and supply, or there will be an early election.
Here, it’s another demand. Agree to a new deal, or else.
Ms Archer ended up resigning. Now the question is what the two rogue independents do next.
Mr Tucker issued his own ultimatum in recent weeks.
He threatened to move a motion of no confidence in the government — which normally would trigger an early election if it passed — unless the government met his demands to install CCTV in abattoirs and put a stop to AFL projects.
The premier said it was that kind of destabilising behaviour that meant a new agreement was necessary.
“We’ve delivered on our agreement in terms of what they demanded of us in terms of [the proposed AFL stadium being assessed through the Project of State Significance pathway] and other matters and I want to see a new agreement that provides that certainty and stability,” he said.
“The public statements by Mr Tucker and indeed the fact they were supporting Labor on many occasions destabilising the parliament last year, is not what I want.
“I will not be governing with one hand tied behind my back. The Tasmanian people deserve better.”
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What’s in the proposed agreement?
The independent MPs, who already couldn’t support Labor or Greens bills without negotiating it with the government, will be further restricted in their ability to be truly independent if they sign up to this deal.
In individual letters sent to both MPs, it’s made clear that they can’t support proposals or changes to legislation raised by Labor, Green or other independent MPs in parliament without the permission of the government.
Government expectations for the agreement are otherwise largely the same as the last memorandum of understanding signed with the MPs, including continuing to provide confidence and supply.
One other change is that Mr Rockliff, who has previously made policy concessions to keep the independents onside, also says in each letter that the government’s policies aren’t up for negotiation going forward.
But independents needing permission before supporting motions? That’s a big ask, which some could interpret as deliberately big enough to trigger an early election.
ABC News: Maren Preuss
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Weren’t we here three years ago?
Kind of. Then-premier Peter Gutwein triggered a state election 14 months early, arguing defector Sue Hickey meant that his minority government no longer had the stability it needed.
But his popularity was also at an all-time high, on the back of daily news appearances during the COVID-19 pandemic.
And while Mr Rockliff’s rhetoric is pretty similar, he’s waiting for Mr Tucker and Ms Alexander to respond before taking it further.
And what they decide to do next will determine whether the next election is just around the corner or more than a year away.
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