Traditions often rule everything around us.
The routines and patterns formed by the little things that have always been there dictate behaviour near and far.
From the singing of Auld Lang Syne at New Year’s Eve through to who gets the first slice of birthday cake, traditions can be fun, frivolous and sometimes confusing all at the same time.
Some traditions are written down and others are passed down orally through the generations. Many form organically over time.
Since 2018 it had been an unwritten tradition that Novak Djokovic would win any singles match that he played at Melbourne Park.
No matter how much opponents pushed, no matter how much pain he was in, Novak would end up winning.
Across 33 consecutive matches Novak would vanquish opponents from near and far.
Watching a tradition break down can also be fun to watch. For Jannik Sinner it might just be a career-defining experience.
The 22-year-old Italian managed to break Djokovic’s hold over Melbourne Park, beating the Serb in four sets.
In doing so he set up a match with the player who most considered the likeliest to break through Djokovic’s hold — Daniil Medvedev.
Medvedev has arguably been the most consistent hard court player in the world since 2020, but has often fallen short at the final hurdle.
The Russian star might be one of the greatest players ever to only win one Grand Slam title — a proclamation he is actively looking to lose.
The 2024 Australian Open final sees a battle between two of the most intriguing players on tour, able to both defend intensely and do damage at will.
Both are among the most damaging returners in the game, focused on putting rivals under pressure from point one.
On Sunday night a new Australian Open champion will be crowned in a match where perseverance and determination might play an oversized role.
Sinner’s rise to the top
The ascendancy of stars is like a snowflake — no two are ever the same. After converting to tennis from skiing, Sinner’s junior performances could be described as more solid than stellar.
Once Sinner turned pro, however, it was a completely different story. Sinner dominated the second-tier ATP Challenger Tour in his teenage years, laying a solid foundation for the rising pro.
While Sinner’s landmark over Djokovic will be heralded as his arrival at the top level, Sinner’s rise has been bubbling away for nearly half a decade.
In 2019 Sinner won the Next Gen ATP Finals, beating out the best under-21 players in the world. Since then, Sinner has slowly marched up the rankings and collected wins over pretty much every top player not named Rafael Nadal.
Sinner’s emergence as a top-four player wasn’t driven by his strength — his return — but instead by improving his biggest weakness. Sinner has never possessed the biggest serve, but in recent years he’s improved his ability to hold his serve to rival any other player on tour.
Sinner has a knack for winning the big points in a match, controlling the flow of the match and regularly deflating those on the other side of the net.
Just when Sinner looks shaky on serve, it suddenly seems like he holds. No player is better at saving break points.
So far this Australian Open he has been broken just twice.
That ability to continuously win service games allows him to attack when returning.
Sinner rarely hits winners directly off the return, instead prioritising positioning and placement over immediate power. He seems to think a step ahead when playing. And he’s equally comfortable on both sides, using his mobility to stay in points.
While Sinner is fantastic at holding his serve, sometimes he struggles to consistently land it compared with others in the top 10.
Occasionally he loses rhythm on the build-up, leaving him vulnerable on the second serve. Against most players this doesn’t matter, but a grand slam final is a very different scenario.
Close and maybe finally there?
Watching a player emerge to join the top tier is something that happens every few years. Some seem to top out when they reach that stage, struggling to progress on.
That final step — from great to legendary — is usually the hardest one of them all.
Medvedev has made six grand slam finals played on hard court surfaces — including five of the past seven finals in Melbourne and New York.
His consistency in making the end of tournaments is stunning. Unfortunately, Medvedev has only been able to succeed once out of those encounters, beating Novak Djokovic at the 2021 US Open. Each one of those finals has come against Nadal or Djokovic — until now.
A loss to Sinner in the final would leave Medvedev with the record for the worst winning percentage in the Open era in grand slam finals for those who have played in at least five finals. That’s something he desperately wants to avoid.
This year’s march has come off improving a former weakness. Early in his career Medvedev gained a reputation as a player who struggled in five-set matches. The Russian lost his first six five-set epics in a row — both against lower-ranked qualifiers and stars of the game such as Nadal.
But in the past six months something seems to have changed. Medvedev has won his past four five-setters, including three on his march to the final.
That’s added up to a large amount of time on court throughout the tournament. That speaks to his determination and willingness to grind out games.
Medvedev’s biggest strength is his return game — the envy of almost every other player on tour not named Novak Djokovic or Carlos Alcaraz.
Medvedev uses his long and lanky frame and a super-deep returning position to get nearly every rival serve in play. Medvedev often sets up more than a metre and a half behind the baseline, practically in another postcode.
Most players who start that deep end up just chipping the ball into play, often struggling to get to an attacking position. Helped by his large frame and ability to take the ball early, Medvedev uses these opportunities to get onto a level playing field early in points.
Medvedev leads all players at the Australian Open for opposition service games broken — perhaps boosted by the number of times he has been broken.
Medvedev has won more points on opposition serves than anyone except Carlos Alcaraz in the past 12 months.
This is underscored by the fact that he has conceded fewer aces than any other player. Medvedev gets himself into more points than any other player, an advantage that’s often impossible to overcome. He’s able to win points off both the forehand and backhand, but relies on his backhand more than most top players.
Medvedev also engages in longer points than practically any other player, something that can grind opposition players down over a lengthy game.
The real danger of Medvedev’s game is his ability to shift gears when he gets into trouble.
Medvedev is a master of dialling up and down his level of aggression to put opponents off guard. In the semifinal against Alexander Zverev, the Russian decided to play far more aggressively than usual to put the German off-guard — a ploy that worked in getting him back in the game.
If he has a weakness, it lies in his ability to retain easy service games. At times he has a penchant for missing first serves and committing double faults, which can put his service game under pressure. Despite his size, he doesn’t have a booming serve and sometimes struggles to dominate points early.
The match-up between Sinner and Medvedev
Sinner and Medvedev have faced off nine times over the years, with the Russian prevailing on six of those occasions.
But there’s been a turning of the tide in their battles, with Sinner winning their last three encounters. None of those wins were dominating, with half of the sets going to tiebreakers.
Their last match, at the 2023 ATP Tour Finals, was defined by who made fewer mistakes. Medvedev was able to put away just 18 winners and Sinner only struck 17. Meanwhile, the Russian hit 37 unforced errors to the Italian’s 30.
The final might be a case of not who blasts the other off the court, but instead who can stay in points longer.
Despite their strong return games, both usually struggle to generate break point opportunities when matched up. This speaks to their resilience as players and their joint strengths.
It’s also likely that endurance and the ability to change tactics will play a role. While Medvedev has practically lived on the court so far this tournament, Sinner has dropped just one set so far.
In short, this year’s Australian Open final shapes as an absolute epic, one that could mark the start of a new era of champions.