Gilgit Baltistan, this sparsely populated region is located at the northern end of the Indian subcontinent, bordering China to the east, Afghanistan and Pakistan to the west, and India to the south. The Himalayas cover an area of 72,971 square kilometers, more than six times the area of Pakistani occupied Jammu and Kashmir. Gilgit Baltistan’s lush nature, snow-capped peaks, glaciers, rivers and exotic culture make it a major attraction for tourists and naturalists. The region is divided into three divisions, Gilgit, Diamer and Baltistan, which is further subdivided into ten districts. The principalities of Hunza and Nagar were retained by Pakistan as nominally autonomous entities until 1974. Chitral has been under the Maharajah of Jammu and Kashmir since 1878, paying tribute like the other two tributary principalities of Hunza and Nagar, but in 1969 General Yahya Khan incorporated into Pakistan. Gilgit Baltistan has an estimated population of 1.8 million (2015) and is ethnically divided into two main regions, Dardistan and Baltistan. Locals speak a variety of dialects, but no recognized script. Burushaski, Shina and Khowar are widely spoken dialects, but Urdu script was introduced in schools after the annexation of these areas by Pakistan. Likewise, the people of this vast region are although Muslims but they also support various sects such as the Sunni , Shia , Ismailia, and Noorbakhshi. But overall Sunni and Shia are two main schools of thought over there.
History of Gilgit Baltistan
The region has a long and complex history, and has been ruled by various powers over the centuries. During the early 19th century, the region of Gilgit-Baltistan was part of the Sikh Empire ruled by Maharaja Ranjit Singh. However, following the death of Maharaja Ranjit Singh in 1839, the empire gradually declined and the British began to expand their influence in the region. In 1846, the Treaty of Amritsar was signed between the British East India Company and the Dogra Dynasty of Jammu and Kashmir, which ceded the territory of Gilgit to the Dogra Rajas. The region remained under Dogra rule for the next century, with the Dogra Rajas exercising their authority through local rulers known as tham or thammas.
In 1947, India and Pakistan gained independence from British rule, and the princely states were given the option to accede to either country. The Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir initially chose to remain independent, but the region was soon caught up in a conflict between India and Pakistan. In 1948, a local rebellion led by the Gilgit Scouts, a paramilitary force composed of soldiers from the region, overthrew the Dogra rulers and declared their allegiance to Pakistan. This led to the incorporation of Gilgit-Baltistan into Pakistan, although the region was not given full constitutional status and remained under the control of the federal government.
As in most contested areas, the doctrine of progressive realization of rights is at play here. Initially, the area was under the “AJK” government until the signing of the Karachi Agreement in 1949 . After the agreement, it came under the FCR (Frontier Crime Regulations) 1901, which also governed the tribal areas under federal administration (FATA). In 1970, the government of Pakistan granted limited autonomy to Gilgit-Baltistan. In 1974, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto introduced administrative and judicial reforms in the region. In 1999, the Supreme Court of Pakistan, in its landmark judgement, declared, “The people of the Northern Areas were citizens of Pakistan for all intents and purposes and could therefore invoke constitutionally guaranteed fundamental rights”
Until 2009, the area was known as the Federally Administered Northern Area (FANA) and was renamed Gilgit-Baltistan. The G-B Empowerment and Self-Government Order put in place by the government in 2009 had the same consequences. The order established a Gilgit parliament of 24 directly elected members. Provincial status established with chief ministers and governors in office. However, the real power in the region is exercised by the Gilgit-Baltistan Council, chaired by the Prime Minister. This changed with the Gilgit-Baltistan Executive Order of 2018. The powers exercised by the Gilgit-Baltistan Council were transferred to the Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly. According to the order, it is widely believed that the new package will bring greater autonomy to the region. This will allow local governments to appoint judges, establish public service commissions and undertake tourism and hydroelectric development projects.
On August 17, 2015, the Parliament of Gilgit-Baltistan unanimously passed a resolution calling for the status of the province of Gilgit-Baltistan. A committee headed by Sartaj Aziz was formed to propose reforms for the region. In its recommendation dated March 16, 2017, the committee recommended that the constitution of Pakistan be amended to achieve interim status like the provinces. In addition, it recommends representation in Parliament and the Indus System Authority (ISRA), the National Economic Council (NEC) and the National Finance Council (NFC). However, nothing happens. Instead, the government introduced the Gilgit-Baltistan decree in 2018.
Further development took place in 2020 when Ex Prime Minister Imran khan promised the people of Gilgit-Baltistan that the region would eventually become the country’s fifth province. However, later in 2022, Pakistan introduced a new tax regime that would levy taxes on more than 100 projects in Gilgit-Baltistan, with profits going directly to the federation. No constitutional status was granted. There were claims from neighboring country India that Pakistan merely took over the region without giving it clear constitutional status continued to be rejected by local residents. Locals have long feared that Pakistan will consider them Pakistanis only when it suits them. Any other time they demand equal rights, the people of Gilgit-Baltistan feel reminded of their constitutional status, or lack thereof.
Reasons why Gilgit Baltistan cannot become fifth province of Pakistan
Firstly, the constitutional status of Gilgit-Baltistan is still unclear. It is neither a province nor a federally administered territory. Instead, it is governed by the Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self-Governance Order of 2009, which gives it a limited degree of autonomy but does not grant it the same rights and privileges as a province.
Secondly, India has claimed the region as a disputed territory, and Pakistan’s declaration of it as a province would only add fuel to the fire. It could lead to a further escalation of tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, which is already a delicate situation.
Thirdly, the region is home to a diverse ethnic and linguistic population, with many people still identifying with their traditional tribal affiliations. The area has a complex socio-political structure that would make it difficult to govern as a province. Moreover, many people in Gilgit-Baltistan fear that if the region becomes a province, their unique identity and culture will be lost.
Fourthly, the region is of strategic importance, and making it a province could have adverse implications for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC is a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative, and the construction of roads, bridges, and other infrastructure projects in Gilgit-Baltistan is a crucial part of it. Making Gilgit-Baltistan a province could lead to complications and delays in the implementation of the project.
Fifthly, Gilgit-Baltistan lacks the resources and infrastructure necessary to sustain itself as a province. It is a remote and sparsely populated region that relies heavily on federal grants and foreign aid. As a province, it would need to generate its revenue to meet its expenses, which could be a challenging task given the region’s limited resources.
In conclusion, Gilgit-Baltistan cannot become the fifth province of Pakistan due to various reasons, including its disputed status, complex socio-political structure, strategic importance, lack of resources, and infrastructure. The issue requires careful consideration and consultation with all stakeholders, including the people of Gilgit-Baltistan, to find a viable solution that addresses their concerns while ensuring the stability and development of the region. However, the region still remains disputed territory, with India claiming the region as part of Jammu and Kashmir. In recent years, there have been calls for greater autonomy but the region’s status remains uncertain. The government of Pakistan has promised to grant the region full constitutional status, but this has yet to be implemented.