At the end of the day, people vote the top of the ticket, but even more so with Trump, who has such an ingrained image with the public and a dominant personality. So it’s going to be hard for him to find anyone who makes a positive difference. Then, there’s the added complication that being Trump’s No. 2 requires deftly responding to constant controversies, as well as preserving the relationship with Trump himself, which is its own complex political and diplomatic challenge.

People don’t appreciate how masterly Mike Pence was at both of these aspects of the role until he was pushed too far at the end, and it ended in tears. In addition, he fortified Trump in 2016 among social conservatives when that was still something that then-candidate Trump needed.

Who would similarly fit Trump’s needs in 2024, assuming he continues to coast to the GOP nomination? I think Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Nikki Haley or Mike Pompeo would be shrewd picks for different reasons, while I’d give an honorable mention to J.D. Vance.

With that, here’s my rundown of the most-mentioned possibilities broken down somewhat arbitrarily by category, and leaving out the multiple additional candidates that fit under the broad category of “safe, inoffensive choices” (e.g., Gov. Doug Burgum, Sen. Joni Ernst):

The Establishmentarians

Nikki Haley

This one makes perfect sense on paper. Haley checks all the boxes that traditionally get someone on a ticket. At this juncture, she seems likely to be the runner-up for the nomination; she represents the portion of the party where the nominee is weakest; and she provides ideological and demographic balance. Haley could, at least at the margins, help Trump with women, suburbanites, moderates, independents and disaffected Republicans, all groups with which he lags. As a former governor and U.N. ambassador who has run an over-performing presidential campaign, she’s a known commodity with extensive experience at high-level politics who has the résumé to be president. In these respects, she probably brings more to the table than any other potential pick.

Of course, a lot would have to be forgotten for this one to work. Trump would have to forgive her shots at him during the campaign and be willing to take on board someone who says he lost in 2020, while Haley would have to explain her way out of believing that Trump is too old and too chaotic to be president again. His most fervent supporters in
MAGA world would be outraged. They would wonder, understandably, why they took over the party just to hand this plum position to a representative of the GOP’s traditional faction and make her, perhaps, the heir apparent. Finally, Haley’s position in favor of reforming entitlements could be a political liability.

Where there’s a will in such matters there’s usually a way, though. If Trump is convinced she’d help him become president again, he can chalk up her ongoing attacks on him as simply the handiwork of a spirited competitor. As for her insufficient MAGA bona fides, Trump’s superfans will fall in line regardless. And if the ticket wins, Trump can always sideline her in the administration, putting her in charge, say, of the Blue Ribbon Commission on Reforming Federal Credit Unions.

Picking Haley would be a classic instance of Trump thinking first about what he needs to do to get through the next obstacle — in this case, winning the general — and worrying about the follow-on effects later.

Mike Pompeo

The former CIA director and secretary of State handled two very sensitive jobs during the four years of the administration with hardly a false step. He was adept at both the outside and inside game, keeping a good relationship with Trump until the end, an extraordinary achievement for someone who wasn’t simply a Trump flak but preserved his reputation for credibility and independence of thought. He took swipes at Trump after the end of the administration, so Trump may have loyalty questions about him, but he chose not to run for president against Trump and otherwise kept his head down during the campaign.

If he’s picked, he wouldn’t be a sensation on the trail and wouldn’t bring direct political benefits. But there’s no doubt he’s ready, both to endure the pressures of a campaign and to perform as vice president. He’s a whip-smart, serious guy with top-level governing experience who would be capable of being president on Day One. He’d be a pick in the Dick Cheney mode, and Trump could say, truthfully, he had put politics aside to choose someone solely based on capabilities and experience. MAGA world wouldn’t be thrilled, but Pompeo best straddles the Trump and traditional Republican worlds of any the possibilities.

He’d be a safe pick, but with significant upsides.

Tim Scott

Everyone likes the South Carolina senator. He’d be a historic pick at a time Republicans are hoping to make inroads among Black voters and has a great personal story. He was careful about criticizing Trump during his presidential campaign. Yet his run was so lackluster it has to create doubts about his drive and political skills. He’d be a low-reward pick, with some risk of blinking under the glare or having difficulty navigating the treacherous waters of a Trump White House.

The True Believers

Kari Lake

She has allure as a MAGA acolyte eager to toe the party line and as a media figure with considerable star power. Yet she lost her one race for public office, in fact threw it away by campaigning with Steve Bannon in the final week. She then wouldn’t concede and made outlandish claims about how she’d really won. Trump’s own election denialism will be a major vulnerability; he doesn’t need to double down on it by picking Lake. She’s also not remotely plausible as a potential president given that her last job was as a local TV anchor. On top of this, she has a high opinion of herself and is difficult to deal with. She’s a master at media, but could be unpredictable under the national klieg lights. In short, this would be a remarkably poor pick.

Tucker Carlson

He would be an electric choice and a natural campaigner. He’d generate the greatest media frenzy of any VP pick since Sarah Palin, and would be perhaps the most intellectually engaged and interesting national political figure since Eugene McCarthy (a former Benedictine novice and academic who wrote poetry on the side). Trump appreciates Carlson’s nose for hot causes and ability to generate attention. But Carlson wouldn’t give Trump anything politically or electorally that he doesn’t already have himself. Assuming he’d even take the position if it was offered, it’s hard to see the stubbornly independent-minded Carlson having the patience and lack of self-respect to slavishly follow Trump’s line no matter what. This pick would risk ending in a Palin-McCain-type smash-up if the campaign didn’t go well, and if they won, Trump would need to be mindful that he can’t fire his vice president.

J.D. Vance

The Ohio senator went from Trump critic to wrangling an all-important Trump endorsement in his Senate primary in 2022. If anything, he is more committed to economic populism than Trump himself, and has credibility with MAGA influencers. This would be a choice emphasizing ideological compatibility. Vance would be fully on board with the governing agenda and be to the populists what Pence was to the social conservatives in the first term — an indispensable inside ally pushing the priorities of his ideological compatriots. As a senator for all of about a year, though, Vance is an untested national commodity and there would be questions about whether he’s prepared to be president, while he’d bring little political upside in the campaign itself. He should be high on the list of the full-MAGA choices, though.

The Other Contenders

Kristi Noem

The former House member and sitting governor of South Dakota is a committed Trump loyalist who desperately wants him to pick her. She endorsed him early and ran ads about the South Dakota economy during the Republican debates that clearly had an audience of one. She’s been a fine governor and is a cowgirl and hunter with a classic Western image. MAGA would be delighted in her selection, and she’d surely be a loyal vice president.

Politically, though, she doesn’t add much. She may be too rural and MAGA to help among suburban women, which is presumably what Trump hopes a female candidate will do. There are
also allegations that Noem, who is married, had
a romantic relationship with Trump operative Corey Lewandowski. Her spokesperson has
denied it. Much obviously depends on whether the allegation is true and, if so, how Trump regards it. Apart from that, she is a low-risk, low-reward possibility.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

The Arkansas governor served Trump ably as White House press secretary and is a MAGA figure in good standing. She is young, winsome and a talented communicator. As a mother of three who beat cancer, she has plenty of charming, moving personal stories and she’s good at telling them. She might indeed help soften the Trump ticket for suburban women. The question is, as the 41-year-old governor of a small state who has been in office only two years, how she’d handle the pressure of the national stage and whether people would see her as ready to be president. She had a taste of this gauntlet, although at a different, lower level, as Trump’s press secretary at a time of fevered coverage by overwhelmingly hostile journalists. There’s no doubt she has great promise. Trump could easily do worse, and might have trouble doing much better.

Elise Stefanik

She’s understandably basking in the glow of her star turn in the antisemitism controversy with the Ivy League presidents. She’s smart and completely open about wanting to be picked. In her audition on “Meet the Press” a couple of weeks ago, she ably returned every serve and showed that she knows what it takes to earn Trump’s admiration on TV by demonstrating 110 percent commitment to him, instantly adopting his term of “hostages” for those convicted of Jan. 6 crimes. The downside is that she’s untested and hasn’t held executive office. Obviously, House members have been picked before — most recently, Paul Ryan and Geraldine Ferraro — but in the modern context, it always feels like a stretch. It would here, as well.

Kim Reynolds

This is very likely a “what might have been” name. The Iowa governor is a charming, capable, non-threatening grandmother. She has a common-sense Midwestern sensibility and an impressive conservative record. In short, her profile screams “veep possibility.” But, of course, she endorsed Ron DeSantis and was all in, duly taking heavy in-coming fire from Trump. It’s hard to see the former president looking past that.