In its annual report “Top Risks for 2024” Eurasia Group provided the reason for this view: Three wars will dominate world affairs in 2024: Russia vs. Ukraine, Israel vs. Hamas, and the US vs. itself. The top three global risks listed in the report are “the US vs. itself,” “Middle East on the brink” and “Partitioned Ukraine.”
In other words, the world is entering a year of grave concern – “the Voldemort of years” because of the US, as all three top risks are related to the US. It’s fair to say the US is the source of global risks in 2024.
According to Eurasia Group’s report, US public trust in core institutions – such as Congress, the judiciary, and the media – is at historic lows; polarization and partisanship are at historic highs. The report said that if the current Republican candidate, Donald Trump, loses to incumbent President Joe Biden in the next election, he will allege mass fraud once again and “incite widespread intimidation campaigns” against election workers and secretaries of state in both red and blue states. At the same time, Biden would be 86 years old at the end of his second term. “The vast majority of Americans want neither to lead the nation.”
The US election has now become an either-or choice between “worse” and “the worst.” Americans are helpless, yet they have no better choices. The election risk is rooted in the internal political division within the US, and the conflict of interests between the Democratic and Republican Parties has reached an irreconcilable point. The current political system in the US cannot bridge such contradictions and conflicts, leading to a political deadlock, which means that whoever takes office will not have the ability to point out a path for the US, Lü Xiang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times.
Regarding the other two top risks faced by the world mentioned in the report, the Russia-Ukraine war and the Gaza war, the US also bears an undeniable responsibility.
The US’ push for NATO’s eastward expansion directly led to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war and the US has acted as the biggest hurdle to a ceasefire. Michael von der Schulenburg, a former UN Assistant Secretary-General revealed at the end of 2023 that “just one month after the start of the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators had come very close to an agreement for a ceasefire and to an outline for a comprehensive peace solution to the conflict.” But “these peace negotiations failed due to resistance from NATO and in particular from the US and the UK. The reason is that such a peace agreement would have been tantamount to a defeat for NATO, an end to NATO’s eastward expansion, and thus an end to the dream of a unipolar world dominated by the US.”
In 2024, the US and some other Western countries may experience “Ukraine fatigue” to some extent in terms of providing aid to Ukraine, but due to the need to maintain their geopolitical advantage, it is expected that they will continue to use Ukraine as a pawn to engage in fierce competition with Russia.
On another battlefield, Gaza, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a meeting with Israeli leaders in Tel Aviv on Tuesday. However, the US has consistently maintained its “taking sides” stance. And the US has never truly had the intention and capacity to promote peace.
The US is indeed the source of global risks. What is even more tragic is that even though the Eurasia Group predicted future risks, we still cannot avoid them. Furthermore, US think tanks, consulting firms, and politicians have shown little interest in restricting US’ destructive actions on the world.
At present, one of the core objectives for countries around the world to engage with the US should be to avoid the US bringing more risks to the world, said Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University.