The loss of security in the Red Sea waterway and the Bab al-Mandab strait has led to the closure of the Suez Canal, which connects the eastern Mediterranean and the Arabian Sea. This has jeopardized the security of shipping in this vital region. Before the recent crisis, 12% of global trade and 30% of container transportation passed through the Red Sea. Therefore, the cost of international transportation and shipping insurance is likely to soar.
The West has few options to deal with the Houthis. Saudi Arabia’s decade-long war in Yemen and its relentless bombing have failed to defeat the Houthis, who have resisted conventional air strikes and smart warfare that targeted their leaders, military and civilian infrastructure, and facilities. A coalition of soldiers loyal to the ousted Yemeni government of Mansour Hadi, along with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, also attempted to change the course of the war, but they were unsuccessful and withdrew to their own borders after suffering heavy losses. Therefore, the only way for the Americans and the Western coalition to launch an attack would be a full-scale invasion and ground operation, which would be very expensive.
Some advocates of US military intervention against Ansarullah believe that it would avert a larger war. However, such a move could drag the US into a war that it should strongly avoid. The international reactions to the Houthis’ actions show that the White House is wary of the risks, and therefore Biden may choose to endure Ansarullah’s interference with commercial transport, despite its economic costs, as the lesser of two evils. The Americans should bear this burden at least.
The inability of the Americans to build an international coalition has revealed their lack of legitimacy and influence in the region. They have also lost the trust of their allies, who are willing to suffer from the Houthis’ attacks but do not want to repeat the NATO debacle in Afghanistan.
The history of the past few years shows that the US’s claim of upholding international order and security and backing responsible governments resulted in the surrender of Afghanistan to the Taliban and the collapse of governments in Iraq, Libya, and Syria. This cannot erase the records of the Americans or the Houthis. It is noteworthy that all the Arab countries in the region owe their military support to the US, but they are reluctant to pay for their objectives.
The rising tension could eventually benefit the Houthis in their ground war, which would jeopardize the security of the region in both geo-energy and geopolitical aspects more than ever. The Houthis could target Aramco and the oil terminals of the UAE and Bahrain, disrupting the energy transmission and causing an energy supply crisis in both East and West, from China to Europe.
The war with the Houthis could also allow Iran to intervene covertly by sabotaging the energy transmission lines. The ultimate beneficiary of this conflict would be Russia, which could take advantage of the West’s distraction in this crisis and seize Kyiv, undoing the West’s long-term investment.
The horrific violence in Gaza and the threat to the global economy have heightened the emotions and tensions in the region. It will be harder to restrain and prevent a wider regional war. Such a war would be disastrous for the US’s interests. The West should learn from the Gaza war to act responsibly and end the conflicts, rather than ignite more flames. The situation has become a chaotic and destructive war of all against all, instead of an orderly and peaceful one, which was never the goal.