On the basis that there’s more chance of getting blood from a stone than there is of Gregor Townsend getting a player from Scottish Rugby’s underage structure, the Scotland coach has cast out the net looking for options since the end of the World Cup.
What is required now is the same thing that’s been required for years – a ball-playing behemoth up front, an uncompromising lock or back-row, a Scottish-qualified colossus reared on raw ostrich in the wilds of Potchefstroom, South Africa. Ideally, two of them.
Alas, a monster has not been found. Townsend’s Six Nations squad will have a familiar look to it when it’s named on Tuesday.
This time last year, Townsend named Ruaridh McConnochie, the former England wing, in his squad, so do not discount a curveball. There’s usually one, perhaps more. A McConnochie or, in previous years, a Ratu Tagive, a Jake Kerr, a Nathan Fowles.
Normally, the truly left-field selections are down to injuries elsewhere. They come and go while the nucleus of the squad remains the same.
Matt Fagerson is back, but we are still waiting on the return of fellow forwards Jack Dempsey and Rory Darge. Jonny Gray is close, but are you really going to throw the 29-year-old into the Six Nations on the back of no rugby with Exeter for what feels like an eternity?
Cameron Henderson, the Leicester Tigers lock who might have made things interesting, is gone for the season. So is Ollie Smith. Townsend is now down to one natural full-back, Blair Kinghorn. Huw Jones and Kyle Steyn, returning soon, are versatile enough to fill in though.
Bolters? There’s talk about Tom Roebuck and Aaron Reed, the Sale Sharks wingers. The Fin Smith chat has been going on for an age. Time for the Northampton Saints fly-half to make up his mind.
Sale scrum-half Gus Warr is another on the debate list. Townsend has three number nines in Ben White, Ali Price and George Horne. Does he really need a fourth?
While some of his peers have decisions to make on selection because of players who have come through the ranks in recent months, Townsend’s options are limited. He cannot have been much pleased by Edinburgh’s poor loss at home to Gloucester on Saturday night – a side that are on a record losing run in their domestic league. Edinburgh had at least 10 players in their squad who will appear on Townsend’s list on Tuesday.
Tighthead is an area that continues to cause palpitations. Zander Fagerson and WP Nel are the first choices again. Fagerson is terrific, but Nel, a model pro, will turn 38 in April. He’s still wily, still capable of doing a job, but the fact that no other prop has mounted a convincing case to take his place on the bench is reflective of a broken player development pathway.
Scotland will have a competitive starting line-up and a reasonable bench, but all the talk of the strength-in-depth has always been a touch overblown.
It’s why you could not fancy them to challenge for the title despite Ireland now living in the post-Johnny Sexton era (Mack Hansen, the hugely important wing, will miss the tournament through injury) and regardless of the fact that France will be without Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack, their playmakers-in-chief.
Scotland will cause ripples but not waves. Not unless they find something spectacular in their training camp.
They have Wales first up. A trip to Cardiff. Lovely. It’s been 22 years since Scotland won there. Put Wales away and there may need to be a reassessment.
Townsend has to decide between Jones and Cameron Redpath as Sione Tuipulotu’s midfield partner. Redpath is playing wonderfully for Bath and Jones might be more valuable as bench cover, so that could be that.
Northampton’s Rory Hutchinson deserves a call-up. Hutchinson is a fine player, but it’s never really happened for him on the international stage.
Can Glasgow Warriors lock Scott Cummings split the Richie Gray-Grant Gilchrist partnership? Possibly. He’s in form and he has a bit of much-needed dog in him. He looks to have improved this season.
The back-row is an area of intrigue. Andy Christie is laying down a challenge with his form for Saracens. Magnus Bradbury – remember him? – was players’ player of the year at Bristol last season. At his best, Bradbury, big and powerful, is a shoo-in for the squad, but his international career has drifted away to nothing. Work-rate, as in not enough of it, has been the issue that’s dogged him.
If you got the world’s biggest rocket and fired some ammo into his rear end to get him going then Scotland would have a hell of a player. His natural attributes are first class, but he’s 28 now and has not played for his country since a loss to Argentina in 2022. If there’s going to be a Bradbury 2.0 then he had better get a move on.
This will be Townsend’s seventh Six Nations and, in the past, he has named provisional squads of somewhere between 35-40 players. It’s a racing certainty that they will score sublime tries and create gorgeous moments, but it’s how they engage with their ugly side that will determine their fate.
Defence wins. Scotland’s defence has deteriorated against the top boys in recent seasons.
Painting pretty pictures is something they can do. Taking the fight to more fancied opponents and out-staying them in a battle is a different trick.
The evidence of the World Cup showed, once again, that they are short in that regard – unless Townsend has indeed found that beast to unleash on the world on Tuesday.
Scotland are good, but are they good enough? The latest examination of their worth is closing in fast.