Nearly three years after rioters stormed the US Capitol, the false election conspiracy theories that drove the violent attack remain prevalent on social media and that country’s television news.
And with the next presidential election less than a year away, experts are warning it will likely be worse in the 2024 contest.
The safeguards that attempted to counter the bogus claims last time are eroding, while the tools and systems that create and spread them are only getting stronger.
Many Americans, egged on by former president Donald Trump, have continued to push the unsupported idea that elections throughout the US can’t be trusted. A majority of Republicans (57 per cent) believe Democrat Joe Biden was not legitimately elected president.
Meanwhile, generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools have made it far cheaper and easier to spread the kind of misinformation that can mislead voters and potentially influence elections. And social media companies that once invested heavily in correcting the record have shifted their priorities.
Let’s unpack exactly what’s happening.
AI deepfakes are going mainstream
Manipulated images and videos surrounding elections are nothing new, but 2024 will be the first US presidential election in which sophisticated AI tools that can produce convincing fakes in seconds are just a few clicks away.
The fabricated images, videos and audio clips known as deepfakes have started making their way into experimental presidential campaign ads.
Oren Etzioni, an AI expert at the University of Washington, said more sinister versions could easily spread without labels and fool people days before an election.
“I expect a tsunami of misinformation,” he said. “I hope to be proven wrong. But the ingredients are there, and I am completely terrified.
“You could see a political candidate like President Biden being rushed to a hospital,” he said. “You could see a candidate saying things that he or she never actually said.”
Misinformation scholar Kathleen Hall Jamieson at the University of Pennsylvania said faced with content that is made to look and sound real, “everything that we’ve been wired to do through evolution is going to come into play to have us believe in the fabrication rather than the actual reality”.
America’s Federal Election Commission, along with Republicans and Democrats in Congress, are exploring steps to regulate the technology, but they haven’t finalised any rules or legislation.
A handful of US states have passed laws requiring deepfakes to be labelled or banning those that misrepresent candidates. Some social media companies, including YouTube and Meta (which owns Facebook and Instagram) have introduced AI labelling policies. It remains to be seen whether they will be able to consistently catch violators.
Social media guardrails fade
It was just over a year ago that Elon Musk bought Twitter and began firing its executives, dismantling some of its core features and reshaping the social media platform into what’s now known as X.
Since then, he has up-ended its verification system, leaving public officials vulnerable to impersonators. He has gutted the teams that once fought misinformation on the platform, leaving the community of users to moderate itself. And he has restored the accounts of conspiracy theorists and extremists who were previously banned.
The changes have been applauded by many conservatives who say Twitter’s previous moderation attempts amounted to censorship of their views. But pro-democracy advocates argue the takeover has shifted what once was a flawed but useful resource for news and election information into a largely unregulated echo chamber that amplifies hate speech and misinformation.
In the run-up to 2024, X, Meta and YouTube have together removed 17 policies that protected against hate and misinformation, according to a report from Free Press, a nonprofit that advocates for civil rights in tech and media.
In June, YouTube announced that while it would still regulate content that misleads about current or upcoming elections, it would stop removing content that falsely claims the 2020 election or other previous US elections were marred by “widespread fraud, errors or glitches”. The platform said the policy was an attempt to protect the ability to “openly debate political ideas, even those that are controversial or based on disproven [sic] assumptions”.
X, Meta and YouTube also have laid off thousands of employees and contractors since 2020, some of whom have included content moderators.
The shrinking of such teams “sets the stage for things to be worse in 2024 than in 2020,” said Kate Starbird, a misinformation expert at the University of Washington.
Meta explains on its website that it has some 40,000 people devoted to safety and security. It also frequently takes down networks of fake social media accounts that aim to sow discord.
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Ivy Choi, a YouTube spokesperson, said the platform had recommendation and information panels, which provided users with reliable election news.
The rise of TikTok and other, less regulated platforms such as Telegram, Truth Social and Gab has also created more information silos online where baseless claims can spread. Some apps such as WhatsApp and WeChat rely on private chats, making it hard for outside groups to see the misinformation that may spread.
“I’m worried that in 2024, we’re going to see similar recycled, ingrained false narratives but more sophisticated tactics,” said Roberta Braga, founder and executive director of the Digital Democracy Institute of the Americas. “But on the positive side, I am hopeful there is more social resilience to those things.”
The Donald Trump factor
Donald Trump’s frontrunner status in the Republican presidential primary is top of mind for misinformation researchers who worry that it will exacerbate election misinformation and potentially lead to election vigilantism or violence.
The former US president still falsely claims to have won the 2020 election.
Without evidence, Mr Trump has already primed his supporters to expect fraud in the 2024 election, urging them to intervene to “guard the vote” to prevent vote rigging in diverse Democratic cities.
Mr Trump has a long history of suggesting elections are rigged if he doesn’t win, and made such claims before the voting in 2016 and 2020.
That continued erosion of voter trust in democracy can lead to violence, said Bret Schafer, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Alliance for Securing Democracy, which tracks misinformation.
“If people don’t ultimately trust information related to an election, democracy just stops working,” he said.
US election officials respond
US election officials have spent the years since 2020 preparing for the expected resurgence of election denial narratives.
In the state of Colorado, Secretary of State Jena Griswold said informative paid social media and TV campaigns that humanise election workers had helped inoculate voters against misinformation.
“This is an uphill battle, but we have to be proactive,” she said. “Misinformation is one of the biggest threats to American democracy we see today.”
In the state of Minnesota, Secretary of State Steve Simon’s office is spearheading #TrustedInfo2024, a new online public education effort by the National Association of Secretaries of State to promote election officials as a trusted source of election information in 2024.
His office is also planning meetings with county and city election officials and will update a “Fact and Fiction” information page on its website as false claims emerge.
A new law in Minnesota will protect election workers from threats and harassment, bar people from knowingly distributing misinformation ahead of elections and criminalise people who non-consensually share deepfake images to hurt a political candidate or influence an election.
In a rural Wisconsin county, Oconto County Clerk Kim Pytleski has travelled the region giving talks and presentations to small groups about voting and elections to boost voters’s trust.
“Being able to talk directly with your elections officials makes all the difference,” she said.
“Being able to see that there are real people behind these processes who are committed to their jobs and want to do good work helps people understand we are here to serve them.”
AP