The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is expanding beyond proportions with death toll crossing 20,000 and counting, over 50,000 injured to include unprecedented numbers of ladies and children in eleven weeks, much more than what was seen in two years of Russia Ukraine War. With approximately 1.9 million Palestinians (about 90% of Gaza’s population) displaced and most dwelling units destroyed, on the pretext of eradicating Hamas terrorists is too serious human right violation for the world to witness.
In response to the global demand for ceasefire, on 22 December 2023, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution (2720 (2023) that “calls for urgent steps to immediately allow safe, unhindered, and expanded humanitarian access and to create the conditions for a sustainable cessation of hostilities”. The original draft resolution “an urgent and sustainable cessation of hostilities” had to be toned down to avoid US veto, leaving no ambiguity that US is fully backing Israel to continue operations in Gaza to target Hamas, which is clearly violating International Humanitarian Law (IHL) on many counts. It is not only eroding the moral standing of US and Israel on rule based order, but also indicating the helplessness of UN system and global community to control such human catastrophe.
The overwhelming global sympathy on 07 October 2023 was deservingly with Israel after the barbaric, brutal terror attack by Hamas on civilian Israelis and foreigners and most rational minds in the world felt that a tough action by Israel to punish Hamas was morally justified. After 11 weeks, the global sympathy has shifted away from Israel backed by US, which remains unsuccessful in justifying killing 18 times more civilian Palestinians (Approximately over 20000 in comparison to about 1200 Israelis killed so far) as part of its right to defend itself.
In the meantime, Israel continues to expand the war in Central Gaza, as its Foreign Minister reiterates Israel won’t stop until Hamas is eliminated and all hostages released. Hamas on the other hand reiterates no release of hostages till permanent ceasefire is announced. Rest of the world too suffers the setback and impact of Red Sea blockage by Houthis, who continue to strike ships linked to Israel till ceasefire.
Decoding Aim and Strategy of Hamas
The strategy of Hamas on 07 October was to pick up maximum hostages to be used as bargaining chip later, embarrass Israel and provoke it beyond limits (by crude display of brutality), force it to respond disproportionately causing heavy casualties to innocent Palestinians in Gaza, so as to put the Palestinian issue from back burner to forefront, besides invoking global criticism of Israel for human right violations, which seems to have been achieved.
Hamas also expected favourable reaction in their support from Arab countries, radical Islamic countries and organisations, and drive a wedge in relationship of some Arab countries and others getting closer to Israel. This has not been fully achieved as Arab countries have voiced in favour of Palestinians (not Hamas, in context of its brutal assault on civilians) and have not intervened beyond diplomatic and moral support. Only Houthi’s have responded by blocking Red Sea traffic in exchange of ceasefire and resumption of aid for Palestinians and to some extent Hezbollah has launched few standoff attacks, which is grossly below Hamas expectations.
Palestinians call 07 October brutality as an ongoing step in spiral of revenge actions against their decades long forced subjugation and by Israeli Security Forces, which they term as ‘Occupation Force’. The future aim of Hamas will be to preserve its force and combat power. Its future strategy seems to be to hold on to hostages as long as possible (which seems to be their only insurance against onslaught by IDF) and launch sporadic strikes to frustrate IDF, whenever possible.
Netanyahu’s Aim, Strategy and Criticism
Looking at Oslo Accord, Israel, as a responsible country was giving an impression (at least diplomatically) that it believed in recognising PLO/Palestinian Authority despite being in full control of West Bank, air and maritime space of Gaza, six entry and exit points to it and inflow of essential service there, for few decades. It therefore villainise Hamas which did not recognise Israel, after helping its rise to checkmate PLO or PA in initial stages.
After 07 October 2023, as per Netanyahu, the Israeli’s stated war aim was to eradicate Hamas completely, ensure that its citizens are never again threatened by an attack from Gaza and ensure release of all the hostages. He thinks that it can be done by brute military force. He also aims to prolong his political carrier by continuing the war, avoiding people questioning his prior lapses, due to fog of war.
Netanyahu’s handling of war, use of disproportionately excessive force level and the scale of destruction caused in Gaza indicates that his undeclared strategy is to make Gaza unhabitable, force Palestinians out of Gaza, and enforce one state solution without declaring it as such. To minimise its own casualties, IDF has opted for mass destruction and pulverising targets/buildings alleged as hideouts by standoff attacks, reducing hand to hand fighting in built up area.
IDF’s excuse that Hamas is using people as human shield; hence, in such heavy population density of Palestinians it’s difficult to identify Hamas and selectively destroy it, therefore use of airpower, 2,000-pound bombs, (capable of killing/wounding people more than 1,000 feet away and resultant collateral damages) are necessary, doesn’t justify use of area weapons designed for mass casualties and killing of over 8000 children. Blaming Artificial Intelligence tools for civilian casualties is as absurd as blaming high tech fencing for conceding Hamas attack. Israeli strategy of weaponizing survival needs of Palestinians might add to new definition of state terrorism, if world community ever manages to define it.
A critical analysis reveals that Netanyahu’s response to 07/10 attack is guided by vengeance and revenge of loss of reputation, which he and Israel suffered, instead of a well thought strategy, expected from a professional military force. His selection of strategic aim was overambitious; hence none of them has been achieved in 11 weeks, despite heavy civilian casualties, unlike Israel successful conclusion of the war in six days in 1967 and 19 days in Yom Kippur War in past. No Hamas fighter has surrendered and the sporadic attacks by Hamas and PIJ in Israel are continuing. The only release of hostages secured so far has been through negotiations and not by any successful military rescue operation by IDF so far.
Israel under frustrated Netanyahu is not willing to accept a ceasefire with approximately 120 hostages still in the captivity of Hamas. Netanyahu is under tremendous domestic pressure spearheaded by relatives of hostages, more so after fratricide of three of Israeli hostages, highlighting uncontrolled firing by its soldiers. Other than hardliners under Netanyahu, many Israelis feel that chances of getting hostages alive through negotiations are higher than by IDF terrorising Palestinians by indiscriminate firing and expecting them to generate pressure on Hamas to surrender and release prisoners. Netanyahu and IDF feel that ceasefire can disrupt eradication of Hamas and its infrastructure and handicap them with lost opportunity of enforcing One state (Greater Israel) making Two State solution absolutely impractical for future.
Hamas is an ideology, brewed out of subjugation of population confined into bounds of Gaza. With growing hatred towards Israel due to unprecedented casualties, the ideology is unlikely to die down. Moreover, many Hamas leaders are outside Gaza, away from striking distance of Israel, will survive the destruction of Gaza. While Israel may be able to comb Gaza, due to the large asymmetry of military assets in its favour, backed by USA, to reduce striking capability of Hamas, in the long term it will make itself and its people more insecure to terror attacks within and outside Israel, as the US Defence Secretary rightly warns Israel that failure to protect Palestinian civilians could lead to ‘strategic defeat’.
Discomfort of US
United States find its self in a difficult spot in context of supporting Israel to continue the war. It cannot leave Israel halfway in destruction of Hamas, which can bounce back to strike Israel again. Israel is strategically very important to USA being its strongest ally and the most dependable strong hold in the Middle East. With shrinking footprints in Middle East, it has become a strategic compulsion for USA to support Israel to hold on to its pivot there.
USA has adopted a policy of providing diplomatic, military, financial and moral support to Israel, at the same time making a statements to favour humanitarian aid for people of Gaza. It is felt that US has sufficient leverage to force Israel to accept ceasefire and follow the path of negotiation, but it seems convinced that Israel needs to be given more time to destroy infrastructure of Hamas. Its calls for protecting and aiding civilians in Gaza look mere optics to reduce its own collateral damages in its international relations and Presidential elections. Israel doesn’t seem to be taking its advice of shifting to lower intensity operations to save casualties seriously, as civilian casualties are mounting despite US advisories.
USA is also coming under tremendous pressure from its other allies and partners on losing moral ground in failing to check Israel to prevent mass casualties of women and children. President Joe Biden is also worried about the political cost of losing support of large segment of pro-Palestinian population in pre-election year. USA’s role as a proponent of rule based order is under threat by standing with Israel, accused of violating IHL in Gaza on daily basis with USA as an accomplice.
Post War Gaza
Israel’s stands alone in its post war plans for Gaza, which are at variance with US, its allies, UN and world community. It is planning to have a buffer zone or a security envelope along Gaza border, however its statements reveal that it has intention of permanent presence of IDF in Gaza, and looks at Gaza without Hamas as end state, notwithstanding the democratic will of Palestinians, which has seen a sharp rise in favour of Hamas.
Its closest ally USA is insisting on two state solution, which has laid down five principles for the future of Gaza, as its Vice President said “No forcible displacement of the Palestinian people, no reoccupation of Gaza, no siege or blockade, no reduction in territory, and no use of Gaza as a platform for terrorism”.
Palestinian Authority (PA) led by Abbas may be keen to takeover Gaza, but it has own drawbacks due to lack of credibility of PA leaders, who haven’t had elections after 2005 and do not represent the people of Gaza. Governance under UN stabilisation Mission till elections are held, could be an option, only if Israel as well as Palestinians agree for it, which seems difficult.
Fallout in Red Sea
Various drone/missile attacks, offensive acts by Houthis on all shipping vessels connected to Israel, till ceasefire is implemented in Gaza, is choking one of the busiest maritime trade route, which impacts global trade. Shipping companies have started taking longer routes around South Africa, increasing the cost of transhipment, which is impacting the cost of oil and other commodities being shipped through Red Sea.
The US led ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’ to build Red Sea coalition for joint protection of shipping may have been signed by 20 countries, but its showing signs of weak coalition, as none of the Red Sea countries except Bahrain is part of it. Few of US allies have agreed for token presence, without putting their ship under US. The counter argument against this US initiative is that instead of expanding war in Red Sea, if US pressurises Israel for ceasefire in Gaza, there will be no threat to Red Sea and no need for Red Sea coalition.
Way Ahead
Netanyahu’s strategy to seek pure military solution to the crisis in Gaza is ill conceived and his frustration of neither being able to ensure security of its people, nor getting the hostages released is not going to take him too far, but caught in cross fire are over two million Palestinians and 120 hostages, who can never forget these days of living under terror. Hamas terror is brutal and barbaric, and must be punished with right strategy with people centric approach and conventional surgical COIN operations, without using area weapons like airstrikes and bombs to minimise collateral damage.
With current strategy, IDF might prevail in destroying Gaza with harsh punishment to all its occupants, the complete destruction of Hamas and its ideology is not possible. The excessive civilian casualties inflicted can give adequate reason for developing next generation of Hamas terrorists, even if the current one is defeated. Already the number of ladies and children, journalists and UN Staff killed in over two months has exceeded two years of Russia Ukraine War, inviting global criticism and isolation for Israel as well as US.
For Palestinians, the poor leadership of Abbas, whose term expired 12 years ago and with radicalised, brutal Hamas, the promise of peace and its legitimate rights looks bleak, notwithstanding genuineness of their cause and optics of support by Arab world. The current war is heading towards long term insurgency with more Palestinian revenge seekers and insecure Israelis within and outside the country. The threat in Red Sea will impact global shipping and economy for few months at least. This major distraction for US, much to the advantage of Russia and China may well be a turning point in long term decline of US and Israel.