Big majorities among young people propelled Democratic House candidates into the majority in 2018, gave President Biden his winning edge in 2020 and powered Democratic gains in closely contested states in 2022.
Now, as many Democrats fear their winning streak among young voters is about to end, a major new survey of young Americans provides a detailed picture of their views. Though the findings still offer multiple cautions for they party, they are less dire for Democrats than other recent polls.
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Turnout seems likely to drop from the 2020 high point, but it’s Republicans and independents, not Democrats, who are most likely to express doubts about voting, according to the latest biannual poll of young people conducted by Harvard’s Institute of Politics. Those disenchanted independent voters include large shares of Black and Latino young people, especially men, the poll found.
And while many young Americans are disenchanted with Biden, there’s no sign of movement toward former President Trump. Instead, independent candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., attract unusually high levels of support.
4 million new potential voters each year
Young voters are a group in constant flux. Each year, about 4 million Americans turn 18 and become eligible to vote.
Americans who came of voting age during Trump’s tenure were powerfully driven by a desire to vote against him, contributing heavily to those big Democratic surges in 2018 and 2020.
But those who have come of age more recently have “had a very different experience,” said pollster John Della Volpe, who has overseen the Harvard Youth Poll since its inception more than two decades ago.
Young men, in particular, have a “dimmer view of government,” he said.
Some of that disappointment stems from a “lack of awareness” by voters of the administration’s genuine policy achievements, says Della Volpe, who polled for Biden’s campaign in 2020. Some stems from disenchantment with the inevitable compromises of governing. Some results from broader social change.
As young men have moved right, young women have moved left, in large part in reaction to the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision ending the nationwide guarantee of abortion rights. The result is a significant gender gap among young Americans, after many years in which that wasn’t a factor.
Lower turnout
Most surveys of the general population only include a couple of hundred respondents younger than 30, so their results have very large margins of error. The Harvard survey, by contrast, focuses solely on Americans, ages 18-29 — students and nonstudents alike. This fall’s installment surveyed 2,098 young people, interviewed in both English and Spanish from Oct. 26 to Nov. 3, with a margin of error of just under 3 percentage points. The large sample size and the poll’s long track record make it an important barometer.
The survey finds clear signals pointing to lower turnout: Just under half of young Americans said they were “definitely” planning to vote in 2024; the share saying so has dropped eight points from this point four years ago.
Among young Democrats, two-thirds said they were definitely voting — a number that hasn’t changed significantly from four years ago. Among Republicans, however, the poll found a sharp drop, down to 56% from 66% four years ago.
The fact that the dropoff is bigger among Republicans than Democrats is an advantage for Biden. But there’s also a big drop among independents — to 31% from 41% four years ago.
Those independents include a lot of young Black and Latino Americans. Among both groups, the share who identify as independents is “up by double digits,” Della Volpe said. Among Black young people, 38% said they were definitely voting, down 12 points. Among Latino young people the drop was even larger — 16 points.
Biden still leads
In contrast to some other surveys, the Harvard poll shows Biden continuing to hold a solid lead over Trump among young Americans.
Among likely voters, Biden led 57%-33%. That’s very similar to the 61%-35% by which Biden won 18-29-year-old voters in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center’s study of voting that year, which is generally the most accurate source.
But support for the two candidates shifts in contrasting ways as the voter universe gets bigger: Among all registered voters, Biden’s lead drops to 48%-33%, the poll found. Among all 18-29-year-olds, including those who aren’t registered, the margin shrinks to 41%-30%. That’s contrary to a deeply ingrained belief among many Democrats that higher turnout always benefits their party.
But independents draw support
Trump isn’t Biden’s only concern. The poll found a large share of young voters leaning toward Kennedy.
Asked about a potential five-way race involving Biden, Trump, Kennedy, Cornel West and Sen. Joe Manchin, who hasn’t decided on running, the poll found 15% of likely 18-29-year-old voters backing one of the independents and another 15% who said they didn’t know what they’d do.
Kennedy, who is mounting a well-funded campaign, likely will be on the ballot in several battleground states. The poll shows him getting support from 1 in 10 young voters, mostly at Biden’s expense.
Third-party candidates typically fade during a campaign, and Kennedy’s penchant for conspiracy theories and fringe beliefs may turn off many people as they learn more about him. For now, however, the poll indicates that he poses a significant risk to Biden among young voters.
West and Manchin have much less support, the poll showed.
Democrats count on abortion politics
Support for legal abortion has grown since the poll last asked about it in 2016. The share of young Americans who believe abortion should be legal “in all cases” now stands at 44%, up from 36%. Most of the shift came from young women, 48% of whom say abortion should be legal in all cases.
If their state had an abortion ballot initiative, 64% of young people who label themselves “pro-choice” said they would definitely vote. Just 34% who label themselves as “pro-life” said they would. That’s consistent with recent votes around the country in which abortion rights have carried the day, even in conservative states.
In addition, almost 7 in 10 young women and a majority of young men said that access to reproductive healthcare was important in choosing which state to live in. Among women, 53% said that access was “very important.”
Those attitudes are based in part on familiarity: More than one-third of young women said they have a friend or family member who has had an abortion — a number that doesn’t vary significantly by race, ethnicity or education, the poll found.
Abortion politics helped drive Democratic victories in highly contested states like Michigan in 2022 and a state Supreme Court election in Wisconsin this spring. Democratic strategists hope the issue will once again motivate turnout among young voters next year. Given Biden’s many problems, that may be the best shot they have.
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McCarthy calls it quits
Kevin McCarthy will retire from Congress at end of year
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will not seek another term in Congress, His retirement continues the steep decline of California’s political power in Washington, where just a handful of lawmakers from the state remain in leadership posts, Erin Logan reported.
McCarthy uses PAC to lavish cash on high-end resorts, private jets and fine dining
As he exits Congress, political obituaries tout McCarthy’s skills as a prolific fundraiser. Also setting him apart from other congressional leaders was his roughly decadelong pattern of using his Majority Committee PAC to spend lavishly on hotels, private jets and fine dining establishments, according to a Times analysis of campaign finance records, Paul Pringle and Adam Elmahrek reported.
Who will replace Bakersfield Republican Kevin McCarthy in Congress? Here are possible candidates
McCarthy’s decision to retire provides a rare opportunity for an ambitious California Republican to seek higher office. In a state where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by about 2 to 1, only 12 of the 54 politicians representing the state in Washington are in the GOP — so those openings don’t surface often, Phil Willon and Mackenzie Mays reported.
McCarthy isn’t the only Californian who is miserable in Congress
McCarthy has some company as he heads for the House exits. Although they don’t agree on much these days, members of Congress are on the same page about one thing: It’s an especially miserable time to have their job. With California’s Dec. 8 candidate filing deadline for 2024 races just days away, seven Golden State members of Congress have opted to leave — with four retiring outright rather than run for another office, Cameron Joseph reported.
To those unfamiliar with the varied expressions of American religiosity, the differences between how faith influences McCarthy and the new speaker, Mike Johnson — two Southern Baptists — may be hard to parse. But the transition from McCarthy, a proud but subdued Christian, to Johnson, a fervently devout evangelical, marks a significant shift, Faith Pinho reported.
Why are California and Texas so different?
The nation’s two most populous states are political opposites — the liberal bastion on the left coast, and the conservative Southern garrison on the Gulf. But a plurality of respondents in both California and Texas identified as moderates — 32% of Californians, and 31% of Texans, according to a poll of roughly 1,600 California and Texas residents conducted by YouGov for The Times. The poll illuminates one of the central aspects of America’s political divide: Rather than huge splits in public opinion, the gap between America’s quintessential red and blue states comes down to tipping points, Jack Herrera reported.
Column: In two decades, much of the West has turned blue. Why hasn’t Texas?
Over the last 20 years, the West has politically transformed. The onetime Republican stronghold has become a Democratic bastion, dramatically reshaping the fight for the White House. But Texas hasn’t budged, Mark Barabak writes.
The latest from the campaign trail
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Four of the Republicans trying to beat former President Trump for the GOP nomination clashed at a fiery debate in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Wednesday night — one of the last major opportunities to change the dynamic in the 2024 primary. Seema Mehta offered some top takeaways.
The latest from Washington
Supreme Court weighs limits on Congress’ power to tax corporate wealth
The Supreme Court on Tuesday heard a conservative challenge to Congress’ broad power to tax corporate wealth. During two hours of argument, most of the justices said they wanted to resolve the tax dispute narrowly, but they also revealed a deep disagreement over the federal government’s taxing power, David Savage reported.
The latest from California
State Senate leader Toni Atkins is thinking seriously about running for governor of California. It’s way too early in the election process to decide who should succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, who will be termed out at the end of 2026. But it’s not too early to know that Atkins, 61, would be a quality candidate worth considering — based on her experience, knowledge and demeanor, George Skelton writes in his column.
Matthew Pritzker, a scion of the politically connected and wealthy Pritzker family who was slated to co-host a fundraiser for Biden on Friday in Los Angeles, was removed from invitations to the event after he was accused of unwanted sexual acts and sued for $25 million, Benjamin Oreskes reported.
Bass says L.A. has put 21,000 homeless people into interim housing. Here’s what that means
Over the past year, Los Angeles city and county agencies have moved more than 21,000 unhoused Angelenos into interim housing — motel rooms, shelter beds, tiny home villages and an assortment of other sites, according to Mayor Karen Bass, David Zahniser reported.
‘Woefully inadequate’: Why it’s so hard to find a shelter bed in L.A.
Poor and unreliable data collection by the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority makes it “nearly impossible” for unhoused people and the city to know how many interim beds are available and how many are being used at any given time, according to a new city audit, Dorany Pineda reported.
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A Los Angeles County Republican Party executive board member was arrested on charges related to entering the U.S. Capitol during the riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Siaka Massaquoi, an actor and first vice chair of the L.A. County Republican Party, was arrested Thursday, Alexandra Petri reported.
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