An “unprecedented” surprise offensive launched by a coalition of ethnic-based armies and pro-democracy fighters in Myanmar’s north has some observers convinced the country’s ruling junta is likely to be defeated. 

While the war is not over, independent researcher and analyst Matthew Arnold said in an opinion story for The Irrawaddy, “its trajectory has shifted steeply in favour of the resistance”. 

So what has been happening in Myanmar and has the tide really turned in the country’s long-running civil war?

The Three Brotherhood Alliance’s surprise operation

Myanmar has been in turmoil since the military ousted a government led by Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in a 2021 coup, ending a decade of tentative democratic reform and triggering widespread protests.

In various parts of the country, democracy activists have taken up arms alongside ethnic minority insurgents who have been battling for self-determination for decades.

On October 27, an alliance of ethnic minority groups launched coordinated attacks on military posts in northern Shan State bordering China and took several towns and border crossings, in a carefully and long-planned operation they called 1027, referring to the date the assault began.

The “Three Brotherhood Alliance”, as the group is known, said its objective was “to safeguard the lives of civilians, assert our right to self-defence, maintain control over our territory and respond resolutely to ongoing artillery attacks and air strikes” by the junta.

It was also “dedicated to eradicating the oppressive military dictatorship”, and committed to combating online gambling scam centres on the Myanmar-China border, which involve thousands of foreign workers, many against their will.

China, which has significant influence in the area, had been pressing the junta to shut down the scam operations that target and enslave Chinese citizens, particularly in the Kokang Autonomous Region in northern Shan State. 

Some analysts and diplomats say it is unlikely the Operation 1027 offensive could have been carried out without China’s blessing.

Military analyst David Mathieson told the ABC’s The World program the attacks were “unprecedented” in scope, speed and the number of groups involved.

“I think it really took the Myanmar army by surprise and then that was quickly followed by other anti-regime forces throughout the country starting their own attacks,” he said.

‘The junta is vulnerable’

Though fighting has raged in multiple regions of Myanmar since the generals seized power in February of 2021, the scale of the new offensive represents the biggest military challenge to the junta’s rule, stretching its forces on several fronts.

Mr Arnold told the ABC Operation 1027 showed for the first time the Myanmar military government could lose control of towns and large territories.

“This has shown that the junta is vulnerable and faces the potential of outright defeat,” he said. 

“Operation 1027 will escalate the wider revolution, which had already been unfolding across the country.”

This month, Myanmar’s military-appointed president, U Myint Swe, said the country was at risk of breaking apart.

“If the government does not effectively manage the incidents happening in the border region, the country will be split into various parts,” he told a national defence and security council meeting.

The alliance comprises three groups with extensive fighting experience — the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA).

The MNDAA’s focus has been on reclaiming the Kokang area and its main city Laukkai — a major hub of cyberscam operations — which it controlled until 2009.

They were joined also by members of so-called people’s defence forces, a loosely organised movement backed by Myanmar’s parallel, National Unity Government (NUG).

The attacks in Shan State were followed by the Arakan Army opening a front against the military in its base of Rakhine State on the west coast, despite a ceasefire agreed a year ago, and attacks by insurgents in Kayah state bordering Thailand to the east, and the Sagaing region and Chin State, bordering India.

Crisis Group senior advisor Richard Horsey said he was cautious about calling the operation a “turning point” but it was clearly a significant moment in the conflict.

“These are quite astonishing losses for the Myanmar military,” he said.

“Some of the strategic towns in northern Shan State, it’s really significant that they felt they had to abandon those, and that speaks to their weakness.

“It also speaks to the strength and careful planning and coordination of the three political alliances who’ve been attacking those locations.”

What happens next?

While the junta has clearly been put on the back foot by the attacks, the analysts spoken to by the ABC were divided over where the conflict was likely to go from here. 

Mr Arnold said he believed the junta’s forces would “collapse in waves across the country”. 

“I don’t foresee there being a large conventional battle for [the capital] Naypyidaw,” he said.

“Junta morale will collapse and along with it the institutional coherence of the military.

“Units will stop responding to orders or defect.”

He added that there was likely to be a run on Myanmar’s banks and this would increase pressure on the junta in major cities.

Mr Arnold said he expected the junta to escalate mass violence against the civilian population, which would create a challenging dilemma for the resistance.

“Ultimately,  however,  the junta is collapsing too quickly to reverse its fate,” he said.

“Between mass armed resistance,  evaporating financial resources,  and diminishing support from regional neighbours, it is hard to see how the junta can regain any initiative.”

It was also hard to see anti-junta forces accepting any kind of negotiation or ceasefire because of the scale and success of the resistance and the public support to be rid of the military, he said.

Mr Matheison said the future of the conflict remained unclear.

He said the junta was facing significant challenges on multiple fronts from multiple sophisticated insurgent organisations that seemed to be working well together.

“Where the challenge I think really is, is that this is a very asymmetric conflict,” he said.

The Myanmar army had more technology, heavy artillery and air power on its side. 

However, they had taken significant causalities and didn’t necessarily have the troop reinforcements to take back territory.

“But certainly what is clear is that the [anti-junta] resistance really have taken the initiative so far.”