The Labor Party’s Eden Foster has won the south-east Melbourne seat of Mulgrave at a by-election, retaining the safe seat previously held by former premier Daniel Andrews.

Labor has suffered a double-digit loss of primary vote support, but the electoral buffer left by Mr Andrews is enough to survive the swing.

The Liberal Party has conceded defeat.

As vote counting continues, the ABC’s election analyst Antony Green said it was unclear whether Liberal candidate Courtney Mann or Independent Ian Cook would finish second.

Green made the prediction at 9:20pm, just over three hours after polls had closed. 

He said there was a swing of primary votes against Labor, due largely to voters choosing the Greens and Socialists. 

Ms Foster’s victory was the expected outcome, given Mulgrave has long been considered a safe Labor seat.

She is Dandenong council mayor and a psychologist and has lived in the local area for many years. 

The Mulgrave by-election was triggered by the resignation of Mr Andrews in September.

It’s the second by-election in Victoria this year, after the Aston by-election in April.