Numerous global systems humans rely on for survival — including ecosystems, groundwater, insurance and the space industry — are on the precipice of catastrophic tipping points, according to a new report by the United Nations University.  

The report says the world is “perilously close” to triggering these tipping points that could have “irreversible, catastrophic impacts for people and the planet”.

But there is some positive news.

The authors of the Interconnected Disaster Risk report say that by knowing these thresholds are looming, we have an opportunity to avert their worst effects.

To do that we must exploit “positive tipping points” — changes that have cascading and self-perpetuating positive impacts on society, and could bring about the shifts needed to ensure our survival, the authors say.

“Our message with this report is that we are heading towards these tipping points, but the causes that we highlight have to do with our behaviours and our values,” lead author Dr Jack O’Connor says.

The report warns whole societies will have to make “unprecedented” changes to avert disaster, but says the actions of individual people do play a significant role in influencing positive tipping points.

Walking the ‘cliff edge’

“Some tipping points trigger abrupt changes in our life-sustaining systems that can shake the foundations of our societies,” says the report, authored by five researchers from the UN University in Bonn, Germany.

The report highlights six such points, all of which Dr O’Connor says are highly relevant to Australia.

The six tipping points are:

• A chain reaction of ecosystem collapse: Key extinctions of species that many other species rely on will trigger a cascade of extinctions leading to the collapse of ecosystems that humans rely on for food, water and livelihoods.
• Groundwater depletion: A majority of the world’s major freshwater aquifers are being depleted at rates faster than they are being replenished. Two billion people rely on them for drinking and agriculture. When wells run dry, important global food bowls could be destroyed — something that has already happened in Saudi Arabia and is predicted to start happening in the US this century and India this decade.

• Mountain glaciers melting: Climate change is causing glaciers on top of mountains to retreat, lowering the fresh water supply for 870 million people that rely on them, and impacting 1.9 billion people.
• Space junk destroying the space industry: By the end of the decade, the number of satellites orbiting the Earth could increase more than tenfold. As that happens, a collision between just two satellites could create thousands of pieces of debris, which would trigger many more cascading collisions, resulting in all existing satellites being destroyed and making future space activities impossible.

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• Unlivable heat: When climate change drives temperature and humidity in a location above a certain point, the human body is unable to survive unscathed for more than six hours. That threshold has been crossed in Pakistan and the Persian Gulf several times, mostly since 2003. As it happens more, people will die and health systems will be impacted.
• Uninsurable future: Increasingly severe natural disasters are driving up the cost of insurance, making it more unaffordable or sometimes unavailable. Once that tipping point is passed, people are left without a safety net and further disasters lead to cascading socio-economic impacts.

All of these tipping points are connected, the report explains.

For example, heat can kill plants and animals, which can have a cascading effect on ecosystems, as well as make heat impacts worse by removing shade from trees.

And satellites are now vital for weather forecasting. Without a space industry helping to forecast weather, adapting to extreme weather including extreme heat will be much harder.

“If we lose that ability, yes, we could see many more lives lost,” Dr O’Connor says.

‘Potential for full chaos’

Adaptation scientist Johanna Nalau, from Griffith University, says some of these tipping points are already being experienced in Australia.

“Thinking about heat … this year has already been insane. So I think we see the potential for full chaos,” says Dr Nalau, who was a lead author on the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.

The new report says measures, such as investing in air-conditioning, can delay those tipping points, but not avoid them entirely.

And even those delaying measures are being implemented poorly, Dr Nalau says.

She says public information about how to manage heatwaves is essential — but that isn’t being made available everywhere in Australia.

The report specifically highlights Australia as a case study of a possible uninsurable future. It’s estimated that more than half a million homes will be uninsurable by 2030 — either because the insurance will be too expensive, or insurers will simply not be offering insurance.

Dr O’Connor, an Australian based in Germany, says the risk of ecosystem collapse is also particularly dire in Australia, as it has one of the worst records in the world for animal extinctions.

‘Unprecedented’ changes needed to avert disaster

Doing more than merely delaying the impacts of these tipping points — and actually avoiding their catastrophic effects — will require “unprecedented” changes to society, the UN report warns.

The solution, it says, is to exploit “positive tipping points”, which can transform society for the better.

Click to explore positive tipping points within grasp

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“Similar to other tipping points, positive tipping points have the potential to cascade through our interconnected … systems,” it says.

For example, if plant-based proteins became as good and as cheap as meat, that could trigger widespread use, which would then have cascading effects by reducing livestock farming, reducing greenhouse gases and improving land conservation.