From a theoretical point of view, any armed conflict has a life cycle. In the early stages, due to sharp disagreement or opposition in regard to the issue in question, the parties cannot resolve it in a proper way. That leads to rising tension and confrontation in mid-conflict, culminating in an outbreak of violence and war that eventually ends with a ceasefire. However, quite often, due to the zero-sum game of the conflicting parties, ceasefires, instead of bringing peace, lead to new wars. However, if the conflicting parties are able to sign a peace agreement and implement it successfully, this would permanently end the conflict during the late stage.
The Armenian–Azerbaijani confrontation has indeed passed through various stages, including two devastating wars and two ceasefire agreements. In fact, from the outset of this conflict, the key issue in question was a purely territorial one—a transfer of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast[1] (NKAO) from the jurisdiction of Soviet Azerbaijan to Soviet Armenia. Despite the rejection of this transfer by Soviet Azerbaijan, neither NKAO’s ethno-nationalists nor their supporters in Soviet Armenia and Armenian Diaspora relinquished their territorial claims.
They started to demand the right of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh to self-determination after Azerbaijan and Armenia regained their independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. The Armenian Diaspora has also worked very hard to misrepresent the nature of this conflict, successfully framing it in line with their homeland’s interest, representing Azerbaijan’s attempts to reassert control over its territory as an act of “aggression” by Azerbaijanis, and combining it with the threat of a “second genocide” against the Armenians.[2]
However, after the First Karabakh War, the facts on the ground were quite shocking, because it became apparent that the aggression was, in fact, committed against Azerbaijanis by Armenians. Close to one fifth of the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan, comprising not only nearly all the territory of the former NKAO, but also seven adjacent Azerbaijani administrative districts that had never been populated by Armenians, was occupied and the entire Azerbaijani population were either killed or forcibly expelled from their places of origin[3]. Thus, more than 20,000 Azerbaijanis were killed and around one million displaced in the course of this armed conflict. Of these, 3,890 Azerbaijani citizens (including 71 children, 267 women, and 326 elderly people)[4] remain missing to this day as a result of the First Karabakh War.
Thus, the fundamental rights of Azerbaijanis forcibly expelled from their homeland, the direct victims of the Armenian aggression, have been violated for almost three decades. However, they have not been in the limelight of the international media. Their voices have not been heard or their human stories illuminated by well-known international television channels over the years.
For almost 30 years, the separatist regime has been working very hard, together with Armenia and the Armenian diaspora, toward the illegal resettlement of thousands of Armenians in the occupied Azerbaijani territories as well as the implementation of illegal activities and infrastructure projects there. The deliberate destruction and pillage of Azerbaijani cultural heritage, as well as religious and historical monuments, has also been a part of their battle over perceptions.[5]
After Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War, the facts on the ground have changed significantly. This war brought to an end to a certain degree the almost 30-year-long illegal Armenian occupation. However, Azerbaijan did not have an executive jurisdiction over that part of Azerbaijan’s economic region[6] that remained under the control of the Russian peacekeeping contingent temporarily deployed there[7]. At the same time, the separatist regime has continued its illegal activities in that territory.
Nevertheless, since then, the Azerbaijani Government has been conducting two-tier approach. So, on the one hand, it submitted a peace proposal containing five basic principles for the normalization of relations to Armenia. On the other hand, Azerbaijan wanted to reach out and engage in direct negotiations with the representatives of Karabakh Armenians, without any involvement of third parties, in order to reintegrate them into its socio-economic space. It was envisaged that they would have the same rights and freedoms as all citizens according to the Azerbaijani Constitution.
However, the processes have been developing slowly in both directions between 2021 and 2023. First, despite the ongoing negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan in various formats, it was hard to finalize the text of the draft bilateral “Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations” and reach consensus on delimitation of borders and unblocking of all economic and transport communications. Second, despite the first meeting between the representatives of Azerbaijan and Karabakh Armenians held on March 1, 2023, at the headquarters of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Khojaly, the latter did not want to come to Baku and engage in direct talks with representatives of Azerbaijan, despite invitations issued by the Presidential Administration on Twitter on March 13 and 27, 2023. They were instead keen to have such a meeting in Khojaly, again via the mediation of Russian peacekeepers.
At the same time, there were some serious disagreements between the sides that created additional difficulties.
First, Azerbaijan demanded the withdrawal or disarmament of Armenian armed detachments and dissolution of the separatist regime and its illegal institutions (the so-called ‘Parliament,’ ‘ministries,’ etc.) existing in that part of Azerbaijan’s Karabakh economic region where the Russian peacekeeping contingent had been temporarily deployed. However, both Armenia and separatist forces in Karabakh ignored Azerbaijan’s concerns and preferred to interact as they usually did before the Second Karabakh War.
Despite almost three years that had passed since the Second Karabakh War, it was seemingly difficult for the de facto leaders of separatist forces in Karabakh to readjust to a new political reality. At the same time, there was no consolidated vision concerning the Armenian–Azerbaijani normalization process in Armenia.
Second, after the Second Karabakh war it was envisaged that the Lachin road would be used for the humanitarian purposes only. The reasoning behind this was that during the Armenian occupation, the Lachin road was consistently misused by the Karabakh Armenians for the illegal exploitation of natural resources; the illicit flow of weapons, military equipment, and landmines; the rotation of illegal armed formations; the illegal transportation of third-party citizens into the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan; and so on. However, Armenia continued to pursue the same policy after the end of the Second Karabakh War. For example, landmines produced in Armenia in 2021 were discovered in Saribaba, Girkhgiz, and other liberated territories. Therefore, it was necessary from the security perspective to stop the abuse of the Lachin road for non-humanitarian purposes.
Meanwhile, due to the lack of access of Azerbaijani experts to monitor the illegal exploitation of the Gizilbulagh gold deposit and Damirli copper-molybdenum deposit, both of which are situated in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh economic region where the Russian peacekeeping contingent is temporarily deployed, peaceful protests of Azerbaijani eco-activists and NGOs started on the Lachin–Khankendi road on December 12, 2022[8]. Since this date, so called “state minister” of the separatist regime R.Vardanyan, former Moscow‑based Russian‑Armenian oligarch, appointed to this “post” by the leader of this de facto entity A.Harutyunyan in early November 2022, has blamed Azerbaijan for the alleged blocking of Lachin‑Khankendi road and trying to persuade the world that there is a risk of a “humanitarian crisis”. However, vehicles belonging to the Russian peacekeepers and numerous cars and trucks belonging to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), as well as other humanitarian vehicles, continue to pass through the peaceful protest area on a daily basis.
At last, all the above-mentioned illegal activities were halted after the establishment of the Azerbaijani customs and border checkpoint at the Armenian–Azerbaijani delimited state border on the Lachin road on April 23, 2023. It has also contributed to the full restoration of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, because this was the last remaining section of the border with Armenia to remain in a state of limbo, as it had been since the occupation of Lachin, the first district outside and adjacent to the former NKAO to be seized, in 1992.
On the other hand, Armenian side started to misrepresent the situation through the “old new narrative” by fictitiously accusing Azerbaijan that it intended to carry out ethnic cleansing of Armenians. Armenia has also tried to represent Azerbaijan’s localized anti-terrorist activities carried out on September 19-20, 2023 in this framework. Even Armenian Prime Minister N.Pashinyan has alleged the ethnic Armenian exodus amounted to “a direct act of an ethnic cleansing and depriving people of their motherland”[9]. However, the main purpose of localized anti-terrorist activities was to destroy legitimate military targets, and not civilians. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, “Azerbaijan’s legitimate measures to eliminate illegal Armenian military forces stationed in its sovereign territories was aimed at preventing further provocations and attacks.”[10]
Nevertheless, it is sad that more than 100,000 Karabakh Armenians decided to leave Azerbaijan. Perhaps, one of the reasons of this exodus could be the fact that the Karabakh Armenians have not forgotten the atrocities they committed against the Azerbaijanis in early 1990s and the fear of revenge from the Azerbaijanis is forcing them to leave. It is quite possible that they are afraid of retribution from Azerbaijani justice. It can also be associated with the crowd mentality as a psychological phenomenon and every Karabakh Armenian by adopting the beliefs or attitudes of the majority in a group could choose to leave. Some people could also have decided to leave due to the personal issues, however, certainly by their own choice.
According to Hikmet Hajiyev, Assistant to the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan respects their freedom of movement and freedom of choice, and that the majority of them do not want to live under the flag of Azerbaijan. However, he added that “if they accept Azerbaijani citizenship, we will protect and ensure their rights and their security and we will establish a municipality system so that they can govern their affairs at a local level, and religious and cultural rights will be assured.”[11]
Thus, as a result of the localized anti-terrorist activities, the illegal Armenian armed formations were disarmed, disbanded and Armenia’s armed forces agreed to leave the territory of Azerbaijan. Simultaneously, the head of the illegal separatist regime S.Shahramanyan signed a decree on termination of so called “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic” on 28 September, 2023. According to the said decree, all institutions of this illegal entity will be dissolved before January 1, 2024. In addition, the Armenian population of Karabakh can familiarize themselves with the conditions of reintegration presented by the Republic of Azerbaijan in order to subsequently make an independent and individual decision on the possibility of staying (returning) to Karabakh[12] .
Also, the first meeting of R.Mammadov, responsible for contacts with the Armenian residents of Karabakh, with S.Martirosyan and D.Melkumyan, representatives of the Armenian residents of Karabakh was held in Yevlakh at the invitation of the Administration of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan on September 21, 2023 to discuss the reintegration of Armenians under the Azerbaijan Constitution. Further two meetings on September 25 and 29, 2023 have already been held in Khojaly and Yevlakh. During these meetings the reintegration plans of the Republic of Azerbaijan were presented and discussions were held[13].
Furthermore, on 1 October 2023 the UN mission, led by V.Andreeva, UN Resident Coordinator in Azerbaijan as confirmed in the press release published on 2 October 2023 “visited the city of Khankendi, where the team met with the local population and interlocutors and saw first-hand the situation regarding health and education facilities. In parts of the city that the team visited, they saw no damage to civilian public infrastructure, including hospitals, schools and housing, or to cultural and religious structures”. The press release also stated that “the team heard from interlocutors that between 50 and 1,000 ethnic Armenians remain in the Karabakh region” and “did not come across any reports – neither from the local population interviewed nor from the interlocutors – of incidences of violence against civilians following the latest ceasefire”.[14] Thus, it was also confirmed by this UN mission that no violence was committed against civilians.
At the same time, the reintegration is currently carried out on the basis of the Constitution, laws and international obligations of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the equality of rights and freedoms, including security will be guaranteed to everyone regardless of their ethnic, religious or linguistic affiliation.
An initial registration of Armenian residents of the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan has just started. This process is conducted by the State Migration Service in an electronic form through the special portal created for this specific purpose which “will enable Armenian residents of the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan to effectively use all the government services and help meet their socio-economic and humanitarian needs”[15]. As of October 3, 2003 Azerbaijani government has supplied Armenian residents of Karabakh with over 40 tons of food and hygiene products, 40 tons of flour, over 200 tons of fuel, and over 22 tons of drinkable water[16].
To conclude, the status of Karabakh was always the main stumbling block within the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process which divided Armenian and Azerbaijani societies from the outset of this conflict. Perhaps the dissolution of this illegal entity could finally create a window of opportunity for the normalization of inter-state relations and the signing of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
According to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, “We must ensure that the other side does not live with revanchist ideas, and they must also rest assured that we do not have sights for their land. We recognize their territorial integrity and have declared it, and we recognize the territorial integrity of all countries… I want to say that the position of the Armenian state yesterday and today gives hope. It gives hope that the day is not far when Azerbaijan and Armenia will settle the issues between them, sign a peace treaty, and countries of the South Caucasus start working on future cooperation in a trilateral format.”[17]
Thus, we owe to ourselves and future generations to start from a blank page and do our best to sign the “Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations”, which will not only formally end a state of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also provide an enabling environment to lay foundation for trust, forgiveness and reconciliation in the coming years. However, a strong political will, daring diplomacy as well as public support are desperately required.
[1] Incidentally, many Azerbaijanis considered the creation of this an Armenian majority autonomous region within Azerbaijan in 1923 as part of the Soviet/Russian policy of divide and rule (see: Tabib Huseynov. A Karabakh Azeri perspective. In: Accord. The limits of leadership. Elites and societies in the Nagorny Karabakh peace process. Conciliation Resources, Issue 17, 2005, p.25 – https://rc-services-assets.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fspublic/The_limits_of_leadership_Elites_and_societies_in_the_Nagorny_Karabakh_peace_process_Accord_Issue_17.pdf
[2]Thomas Ambrosio. “Congressional Perceptions of Ethnic Cleansing: Reactions to the Nagorno-Karabakh War and
the Influence of Ethnic Interest Groups.” In: The Review of International Affairs, vol. 2, no. 1, autumn, 2002, pp. 24– 26.
[3] Gulshan Pashayeva. Thorny path towards peace and reconciliation in Karabakh. Modern.diplomacy.eu, 3 January 2021 – https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2021/01/20/thorny-path-towards-peace-and-reconciliation-in-karabakh/
[4] ICRC Collects Samples of Missing Azerbaijani Citizens’ Family Members for Possible Exhumation. Caspiannews.com, August 29, 2022 – https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/icrc-collects-samples-of-missing-azerbaijani-citizens-family-members-for-possible-exhumation-2022-8-29-12/
[5]Gulshan Pashayeva. Battle over perceptions: upturned reality. The London Post, 6 August 2020 – https://www.academia.edu/43801483/Battle_over_perceptions_upturned_reality
[6] For reintegration of the liberated territories into the Azerbaijani economy and to increase the efficiency of economic management, Karabakh and East Zangazur economic regions were set up along with 12 other economic regions by a 7 July 2021 presidential decree entitled “On the New Division of the Azerbaijani Republic’s Regions.”
[7]Statement by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and President of the Russian Federation, 10 November 2020 – https://president.az/en/articles/view/45923
[8] Azerbaijan’s mineral deposits in Karabakh are being plundered by Armenians, says protestor. Trend.az, 12 December 2022 – https://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/3680690.html
[9]Armenia says more than 100,000 people fled Nagorno-Karabakh. – https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/30/more-than-80-percent-of-nagorno-karabakhs-people-have-fled-armenia-govt
[10]Azerbaijan`s Foreign Ministry comments on Josep Borrell`s statement. Azertag.az, 22.09.2023 – https://azertag.az/en/xeber/azerbaijans_foreign_ministry_comments_on_josep_borrells_statement-2758093#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20statement%20by%20Josep%20Borrell,as%20it%20commented%20on%20the
[11]Baku denies Nagorno-Karabakh ethnic cleansing claims Baku (AFP). Issued on: 01/10/2023 – https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231001-baku-denies-nagorno-karabakh-ethnic-cleansing-claims
[12] Illegal regime in Karabakh ceases to exist. Report.az, 28 September 2023 – https://report.az/en/karabakh/illegal-regime-in-karabakh-ceases-to-exist/
[13]Statement by the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Azertag.az, 02.10.2023 – https://azertag.az/en/xeber/statement_by_the_presidential_administration_of_the_republic_of_azerbaijan-2771617
[14] UN team completes mission to Karabakh, azerbaijan.un.org, 02 October 2023 – https://azerbaijan.un.org/en/248051-un-team-completes-mission-karabakh
[15] Azerbaijan creates web portal for reintegration of Karabakh Armenians. Trend.az, 28 September 2023 – https://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/3804226.html
[16] Baku discloses volume of humanitarian aid delivered to Garabagh’s Armenian residents. News.az, 03 October 2023 -https://news.az/news/baku-shares-latest-data-on-humanitarian-aid-delivered-to-garabaghs-armenian-residents-photo
[17] lham Aliyev addressed the nation. 20 September 2023 – https://president.az/en/articles/view/61113