The number of Australians aged 85 and over is set to more than triple in the next 40 years as the country’s population swells to 40.5 million – about 13.8 million more than the current population.
Key points:
- The full intergenerational report will be released from the ABS on Thursday
- Australia’s population growth will slow to 1.1 per cent in 40 years
- Low fertility and increased life expectancy will age the population
But according to new data from the 2023 Intergenerational Report, set to be released in full on Thursday, Australia’s population will grow at a slower rate in the next four decades, than any other 40-year period since federation.
The report will reveal the growth of Australia’s population will slow to 1.1 per cent over the next 40 years, compared to 1.4 per cent over the past 40 years, with the level of net overseas migration assumed to remain fixed at 235,000 people.
The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data showed just under 26.7 million people currently live in Australia, up from about 26.27 million at the end of 2022.
The last Intergenerational Report, from 2021, projected Australia’s population to reach 38.8 million by 2061.
Care economy boom
The report outlines that over the next 40 years, Australia’s population will also age, with low fertility and increased life expectancies, two contributing factors.
The number of people aged 85 and over is set to more than triple, while the number of people aged 65 and over is forecast to more than double.
ABS data from the 2021 census showed there were 542,000 Australians aged 85 and over and just under 1.3 million aged 65 and over.
The Intergenerational Report shows life expectancies will also rise, with men set to live to 87 years old and women to 89.5 years, compared to current life expectancies of 81.3 years and 85.2 years, respectively.
With Australia’s population ageing, Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who will release the report on Thursday, said the growth in the care economy would be “one of the most prominent shifts in our society over the next 40 years.”
“Our care economy will become an even more central focus in the decades ahead,” he said in a statement.
“Whether it’s health care, aged care, disabilities or early childhood education – we’ll need more well-trained workers to meet the growing demand for quality care over the next 40 years.
“The care sector is where the lion’s share of opportunities in our economy will be created and we want to make sure we grab this opportunity with both hands.”
The report predicts the care economy will account for about 15 per cent of GDP by 2062-2063, up from the current eight per cent.
Aged Care Minister Anika Wells said the government was already working to address the sector’s financial sustainability through an aged care task force.