Prof Alan Smithers said regulator Ofqual’s return to pre-pandemic grading means results will be similar to levels in 2019, before Covid hit.

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He said the higher results that came from teachers’ generous assessments instead of exams will come to an end.

Prof Smithers said: “The restoration of the 2019 grade pattern in England will result in another record drop in top GCSE grades as the profligacy of teacher assessment is reversed.

“Although the changes as percentages may not look much, given the huge number of entries, they amount to a substantial drop of some 300,000 top grades.

“This will come as a shock to the pupils and their parents, who may find the grades that emerge hard to accept given what those in the classes above them had received in the preceding three years.”

But he added: “It is necessary because the emergency reliance on teacher assessment raised the number of top awards by 437,964, giving many pupils a false picture of their capabilities.”

About 73,000 fewer top A-level grades were awarded after the return to pre-Covid grading.

And the proportion of students clinching a pass mark above an E dipped to 97.3 per cent from 98.4 per cent in 2022. It is also the lowest pass rate since 2008. 

Following their results, 19,000 teenagers have been rejected from their top two university preferences and are competing for Clearing courses.

Although 79 per cent of 18-year-olds bagged their first choice degree, up from 74 per cent in 2019.