The Administration said allied pledges of financial assistance for the U.S. military now total $53.5 billion and should cover all but $15 billion of the war’s costs–even if combat continues until March 31. Senior White House officials added Friday that the war’s costs could be several billion dollars less than expected if a peace agreement is reached in the next few days.
If a quick settlement is reached and all the allied pledges of aid still come through, the United States might even be able to “break even” financially, senior officials said, suggesting that the United States then would not have to use any of the extra $15 billion in budget authority.
“It’s unlikely but not impossible, let’s say, to break even,” Richard Darman, director of the Office of Management and Budget, said Friday.
But Darman conceded that some nations, most notably Japan, have still not come through with much of their promised financial help. Darman said that Japan, for instance, has only delivered $1.3 billion in cash and in-kind aid, out of total pledged support of $10.7 billion for both 1990 and 1991.
Of the total of $53.5 billion in pledges from all of the allies, only $14.9 billion in cash and in-kind aid has actually been received by the Pentagon.
Still, Darman said the White House remains convinced that the rest of the aid will be coming, even if the war ends quickly.
“Many countries are paying on time, exactly as scheduled, and I would think that that will be the pattern in general,” Darman told reporters Friday. Saudi Arabia has pledged $16.8 billion for both 1990 and 1991 and has already turned over more than $6 billion. The exiled government of Kuwait has pledged $16 billion, and actually provided $3.5 billion so far.
Germany, which had been reluctant to provide assistance, has already sent $2.9 billion in aid to the Pentagon, out of total commitments of $6.5 billion for Desert Shield and Desert Storm.
While the Japanese Diet (parliament) has not yet approved Japan’s latest pledge of $9 billion in assistance, Darman added that “we would expect that that commitment would at least in substantial measure be honored as well.”
At the same time, the White House strongly suggested that the first month of combat has cost much less than was earlier anticipated by Administration officials and outside analysts.
While refusing to provide a specific, total price tag on the costs of the first month of combat, the White House’s budget request estimated that an air campaign of the type the United States has mounted against Iraq and Kuwait–in which American forces lose about two planes a day and consume massive amounts of bombs and other ammunition–costs about $200 million a day.
Earlier, senior Administration officials had said that they believed the war was costing $500 million to $1 billion a day.
In its most detailed breakdown of war costs to date, the Administration added, however, that a full-scale ground war would cost up to $1.6 billion a day, given potentially heavy losses of tanks, planes, artillery pieces, helicopters and other heavy equipment.
In addition to the extra costs of actual combat, the White House said that operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm will cost an estimated total of $40 billion between Oct. 1, 1990, and March 31.
But even if the war ends swiftly before a ground campaign begins, the bills will still keep mounting. The budget request said that it will cost more than $12 billion for the military to stand down from combat readiness in the Gulf and bring the troops home.
The Pentagon also said that it will need $6.4 billion to replace selected missiles and other munitions already used in the ferocious air campaign.
In a detailed breakdown of the military’s budget needs in the midst of the war, the Administration provided new insight into the Pentagon’s priorities, as it seeks to extend the war against Iraq.
The Pentagon, for instance, wants to buy an extra 500 of the successful Patriot anti-missile missiles, which would increase production to peak levels. The Patriot has so far proved to be one of America’s most effective high-tech weapons, successfully blunting the threat from Iraqi Scud missiles in Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Meanwhile, the Administration is also seeking to buy 400 more Tomahawk cruise missiles, which have played a key role in the bombing campaign against heavily fortified Iraqi positions, and 9,000 extra Maverick air-to-ground missiles to replace many already used by Air Force and Navy pilots attacking Iraqi tanks and other ground forces.
Earlier in the war, congressional leaders had warned that they may oppose attempts by the Pentagon to seek enough money to replenish their ammunition stocks after the war. But now, with America’s high-tech weaponry proving itself in the field, many in Congress seem more willing to pay for missile and ammunition replacements.
“Any layman knows that you need replacements in the pipeline while the war is going on,” said Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands), a leading member of the House Appropriations Committee. “But after the war, whether we go ahead and replace things just for shelf purposes, may be something that will be discussed in Congress.”
THE COST OF WAR
Estimates for the Persian Gulf War price tag have varied widely. The White House Office of Management and Budget offered several scenarios of a daily cost that differ according to the amount of equipment lost and such factors as prisoner support, medical transportation and maintenance. Here are four estimates: CASE 1: In an air campaign only, with losses including 1 F-15E and 1 F/A-18 plus munitions used. Cost Per Day: $200 million
CASE 2: In an air campaign only, with no aircraft losses, but munitions used. Cost Per Day: $150 million
CASE 3: In a ground campaign with air support in which the losses include 1 A-10 anti-tank plane, 1 AV-8 Harrier plane, 25 tanks, 22 infantry fighting vehicles, 32 armored personnel carriers, 13 artillery pieces, 6 helicopters, 1 landing craft, 1 amphibious assault vehicle and munitions. Cost Per Day: $800 million
CASE 4: In a ground campaign with air support in which losses include 1 F-15 fighter jet, 1 A-10 anti-tank plane, 1 F/A-18 fighter jet, 1 F-16 fighter jet, 1 guided missile frigate, 44 tanks, 40 infantry fighting vehicles, 60 armored personnel carriers, 25 artillery pieces, 17 helicopters and munitions. Cost Per Day: $1.6 billion