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Round of 16 clinching scenarios

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The group stage of the 2023 World Cup is at its midway point, with the majority of teams already two games in.

While there’s plenty of soccer to be played in Australia and New Zealand, the knockout round picture becomes clearer with each match.

The United States will hope it doesn’t pay the price for an awful first half against the Netherlands in what was a rematch of the 2019 World Cup finale. The two-time defending champions must not lose to Portugal in their last group stage game Tuesday, or they face the embarrassment of going home after the group stage for the first time ever at the World Cup or Olympics.

Here’s a look at how each of the 32 teams stand in terms of reaching the Round of 16:

Scores and standings last updated Sunday, July 30.

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Group A

Switzerland (5 points – 2-0 win over Philippines; 0-0 tie vs. Norway; 0-0 tie vs. New Zealand): An early-morning draw Sunday with tournament host New Zealand put the Swiss into the knockout stage. They will face the runner-up of Group C in the next round, which will be either Spain or Japan.

Norway (4 points – 1-0 loss to New Zealand; 0-0 tie vs. Switzerland; 6-0 win vs. Philippines): Norway, the 1995 World Cup winners, were at risk of missing the knockout stage with only one point before a major victory against Philippines on Sunday, combined with some help from Switzerland to hold New Zealand scoreless. They take second place in the group thanks to a +5 goal differential.

New Zealand (4 points – 1-0 win over Norway; 1-0 loss to Philippines; 0-0 tie vs. Switzerland): A roller-coaster World Cup — the highs of a first-ever World Cup win followed by the lows of a stunning loss — comes to an end for one of the two host nations.

Philippines (3 points – 2-0 loss to Switzerland; 1-0 win over New Zealand; 6-0 loss vs. Norway): The Philippines had a memorable World Cup debut by pulling off a shocking upset against New Zealand. Their journey ended with Sunday with a loss to Norway.

Group B

Nigeria (4 points – 0-0 tie vs. Canada; 3-2 win over Australia; vs. Ireland on Monday): The Super Falcons are in prime position to advance, even with a loss (so long as Canada doesn’t also lose).

Canada (4 points – 0-0 tie vs. Nigeria; 2-1 win over Ireland; vs. Australia on Monday): The Olympic gold medalists in Tokyo need to avoid a loss to host Australia, or they likely face a group stage exit for the first time since the 2011 World Cup.

Australia (3 points – 1-0 win over Ireland; 3-2 loss to Nigeria; vs. Canada on Monday): The loss to Nigeria really puts the pressure on Australia — a pre-tournament dark horse contender — to defeat Canada to advance.

Ireland (0 points – 1-0 loss to Australia; 2-1 loss to Canada; vs. Nigeria on Monday): Ireland’s first World Cup appearance will end with a group stage exit.

Group C

Spain (6 points – 3-0 win over Costa Rica; 5-0 win over Zambia; vs. Japan on Monday): Spain’s spot in the Round of 16 has been clinched with it absolutely steamrolling its competition so far. It’ll get tested in the final group stage game against Japan.

Japan (6 points – 5-0 win over Zambia; 2-0 win over Costa Rica; vs. Spain on Monday): First place in the group will be on the line when Japan — which also has punched its Round of 16 ticket — plays Spain, the early World Cup juggernaut.

Costa Rica (0 points – 3-0 loss to Spain; 2-0 loss to Japan; vs. Zambia on Monday): The defeat against Japan on Tuesday eliminated Las Ticas from advancing to the knockout stage.

Zambia (0 points – 5-0 loss to Japan; 5-0 loss to Spain; vs. Costa Rica on Monday): One of eight World Cup first-timers, Zambia will be playing for pride in its group stage finale.

Group D

England (6 points – 1-0 win over Haiti; 1-0 win over Denmark; vs. China on Tuesday): The reigning European champions will be among the favorites once the knockout stage commences. They need only a draw against China to win the group.

Denmark (3 points – 1-0 win over China; 1-0 loss to England; vs. Haiti on Tuesday): Denmark is seeking its first foray into the knockout stage since the 1995 World Cup. The Danes are through if they win or draw Haiti, unless England loses to China. If Denmark wins and England loses, tiebreakers will determine whether The Danes or China advance.

China (3 points – 1-0 loss to Denmark; 1-0 win over Haiti; vs. England on Tuesday): China will advance with a win against England and a Denmark loss or draw to Haiti. If China and Denmark both win, tiebreakers would be necessary between the three teams with six points. Draws in both games would trigger tiebreakers between China and Denmark for second place. A loss means China needs a Haiti win and help from tiebreakers to advance.

Haiti (0 points – 1-0 loss to England; 1-0 loss to China; vs. Denmark on Tuesday): Haiti is all but eliminated from the knockout rounds in its World Cup debut. It would need to beat Denmark and see England beat China to have a chance through tiebreakers.

Group E

United States (4 points – 3-0 win over Vietnam; 1-1 tie vs. Netherlands; vs. Portugal on Tuesday): The USWNT is in a good position to advance to the Round of 16. However, the draw to the Netherlands puts pressure on the two-time defending World Cup champions to get a result in the group stage finale against Portugal. A loss eliminates the USWNT from the World Cup, unless Netherlands also loses. A second-place finish in the group could mean a quarterfinal showdown against a Spain team that has outscored opponents 8-0 through two games.

Netherlands (4 points – 1-0 win over Portugal; 1-1 tie vs. United States; vs. Vietnam on Tuesday): A tie against the USWNT in a rematch of the 2019 World Cup final has the Dutch in position to win the group if they beat Vietnam as expected and Portugal can pull off a stunning upset against the U.S.

Portugal (3 points – 1-0 loss to Netherlands; 2-0 win over Vietnam; vs. United States on Tuesday): Portugal faces a win-and-in scenario against the USWNT. A tie, coupled with a huge Vietnam upset of the Netherlands, also could put Portugal into the Round of 16 in its first World Cup.

Vietnam (0 points – 3-0 loss to United States; 2-0 loss to Portugal, vs. Netherlands on Tuesday): Vietnam, another World Cup newcomer, is eliminated, but could do the USWNT a favor by at least keeping the score line close against the Netherlands.

Group F

France (4 points – 0-0 tie vs. Jamaica; 2-1 win over Brazil; vs. Panama on Wednesday): A squad mired in off-field turbulence had a less-than-ideal start to this World Cup. France has reached the quarterfinals of the last two World Cups and only needs a draw against Panama to advance. They could go on with a loss if Jamaica upsets Brazil.

Jamaica (4 points – 0-0 tie vs. France; 1-0 win over Panama; vs. Brazil on Wednesday): The Reggae Girlz could go into Wednesday with a chance to advance out of the group stage for the first time. A win or draw against Brazil would do it. A loss but a Panama upset of France would give Jamaica a shot through tiebreakers.

Brazil (3 points – 4-0 win over Panama; 2-1 loss to France; vs. Jamaica on Wednesday): Brazil has to beat Jamaica to advance. A draw would require Panama to beat France.

Panama (0 points – 4-0 loss to Brazil; 1-0 loss to Jamaica; vs. France on Wednesday): Panama has been eliminated, but can still make things interesting for this group depending on its performance against France.

Group G

Sweden (6 points – 2-1 win over South Africa; 5-0 win over Italy; vs. Argentina on Wednesday): Saturday’s win against Italy should be enough for Sweden — third-place finishers at the 2019 World Cup — to win the group given its significant advantage in goal differential over Italy (+6 compared to -4).

Italy (3 points – 1-0 win over Argentina; 5-0 loss to Sweden; vs. South Africa on Wednesday): Italy’s World Cup fate will be decided Wednesday. They go through with a victory over South Africa. A draw is enough unless Argentina defeats Sweden. Lose and they’re out.

South Africa (1 point – 2-1 loss to Sweden; 2-2 tie vs. Argentina; vs. Italy on Wednesday): Blowing a 2-0 lead against Argentina really hurts South Africa’s chances of advancing. Game against Italy is a must-win to have a chance through tiebreakers.

Argentina (1 point – 1-0 loss to Italy; 2-2 tie vs. South Africa; vs. Sweden on Wednesday): Fought valiantly to salvage a draw against South Africa, but is still seeking its first-ever World Cup win. Their only direct route to the Round of 16 is beating Sweden while South Africa and Italy tie.

Group H

Colombia (6 points – 2-0 win over South Korea; 2-1 win vs. Germany; vs. Morocco on Thursday): Defeating South Korea and upsetting Germany has Colombia in position to reach the Round of 16 for just the second time in its history. Win or draw against Morocco, and they’re in. Lose and Colombia’s fate will be decided by tiebreakers.

Germany (3 points – 6-0 win over Morocco; 2-1 loss vs. Colombia; vs. South Korea on Thursday): Germany has reached at least the quarterfinals in every World Cup its played in, but a loss against Colombia puts the powerhouse in less comfortable position. If they win or draw against South Korea and Colombia beats Morocco, they take second place and advance. If Morocco upsets Colombia, tiebreakers determine who advances. Lose to South Korea, and they’ll rely on tiebreakers to advance.

Morocco (3 points – 6-0 loss to Germany; 1-0 win vs. South Korea; vs. Colombia on Thursday): Morocco made history Sunday morning with a win over South Korea when Ibtissam Jraïdi scored the country’s first World Cup goal in the 6th minute. The victory keeps their hopes to advance alive, though a Colombia matchup in the final group stage game and falling behind in goal differential makes things difficult.

South Korea (0 points – 2-0 loss to Colombia; 1-0 loss vs. Morocco; vs. Germany on Thursday): South Korea’s loss to Morocco means they are unlikely to advance. Beating Germany is a must, along with a Morocco loss for a chance after tiebreakers.

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