Myanmar has endured a complex history characterized by military control, civil war, weak governance, and severe poverty over its decades of independence. A significant turning point occurred in February 2021 when a military coup shattered Southeast Asia’s hopes for political reform. In the aftermath, Myanmar entered a new phase of violence, with the Tatmadaw, the country’s military, facing widespread and vehement opposition from ethnic armed organizations, which had been engaged in longstanding conflicts even before the coup. Ordinary residents also took matters into their own hands, forming militias to challenge the military junta’s rule.

In response to the growing resistance, former MPs and activists established a shadow government and rallied combat troops across the nation to confront the military junta’s authority. The situation escalated further as the military retaliated, employing harsh crackdowns against opposition troops and protesters. Nevertheless, the military’s control over certain regions remains tenuous, and experts forecast a probable escalation of violence in 2022. The situation in Myanmar is fraught with complexities and challenges, and the future remains uncertain as the country grapples with its quest for stability, democracy, and a path towards lasting peace.  

Myanmar’s Complex Struggle: The Rise of the National Unity Administration and the Junta’s Escalating Aggression

The prevailing conditions have provided a conducive environment for the National Unity administration (NUG) — an alternative civilian administration formed by parliament members elected in the 2020 general elections — and its armed wing, the People’s Defense Force (PDF), to establish a considerable presence across Myanmar. Anticipated to expand to over 250 units with 65,000 personnel by 2022, the PDF operates without a centralized leader or command structure, yet remains united by a shared objective: removing the military from power. Particularly in rural areas where the military junta’s influence is limited, the PDF wields significant control and has initiated offensives on military installations, police stations, and government facilities.

Conversely, in the aftermath of the coup, the junta’s aggression and brutality have escalated substantially, affecting nearly every corner of the nation. Over the past two years, the junta has detained approximately 20,000 civilians and inflicted an estimated 3,000 fatalities in an endeavor to consolidate its authority. As a consequence of the junta’s territorial struggles against the growing resistance movement, an alarming 1.5 million people have been displaced, enduring the dire consequences of internal conflict. The situation in Myanmar remains deeply complex and fraught with challenges, with stark contrasts in the aspirations and actions of the contending forces vying for control and influence over the country’s destiny.

Humanitarian Crisis in Myanmar: Displacement, Restrictions, and Violations

Since the coup, an alarming number of approximately one million people have been internally displaced within Myanmar, while an additional 70,000 individuals have sought refuge in neighboring nations. However, their plight has been further compounded by the junta’s implementation of a longstanding “four cuts” campaign aimed at isolating and terrorizing civilian populations, impeding the delivery of crucial humanitarian aid to millions of displaced and vulnerable individuals.

Regrettably, the junta’s restrictive measures on humanitarian assistance, particularly in conflict-ridden regions like the southeast and northwest, constitute a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law. By placing severe limitations on the movement of humanitarian workers, obstructing access routes and supply convoys, and even resorting to destruction of non-military supplies, the junta has effectively hindered vital aid from reaching those in dire need. Furthermore, their reprehensible actions have extended to attacks on relief workers, disruption of essential communication channels, and unlawful targeting of health institutions and medical personnel.

In a troubling display of disregard for human rights and international norms, military forces have brazenly intercepted critical food and medical supplies destined for displacement areas and, with alarming impunity, apprehended individuals suspected of providing assistance in relief efforts. The humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, exacerbated by the junta’s actions, demands immediate attention and concerted international efforts to alleviate the suffering of the displaced and vulnerable populations, while holding those responsible for these violations accountable under international law. Some international organizations are helping the Myanmar’s people to overcome such circumstances.

Humanitarian Efforts in Myanmar: Strengthening Lives Amidst Challenges

International Rescue Committee (IRC)

IRC’s humanitarian efforts in Myanmar date back to 2008 when they provided much-needed assistance in the wake of Cyclone Nargis. Over the years, the IRC has earned a reputation as a reliable partner, working closely with both governmental and non-governmental organizations. Their extensive services encompass essential areas such as healthcare, water and sanitation provisions, job training initiatives, and valuable support in community development projects.

Through their steadfast commitment to improving lives and fostering sustainable development, the IRC has become an invaluable ally in addressing the multifaceted challenges faced by the people of Myanmar. Their dedication to delivering crucial aid and building partnerships underscores their unwavering commitment to making a positive impact on the lives of those they serve.

World vision

The simultaneous challenges posed by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the prevailing political circumstances have inflicted significant hardships on many individuals in Myanmar. Amidst these trying times, World Vision Myanmar has emerged as a steadfast and dedicated organization, undeterred in its mission to address the urgent needs of vulnerable children and families across 12 states and regions as part of the Category III National Response.

Despite facing adversity, World Vision Myanmar’s impact has been substantial, reaching an impressive 1.4 million people, of which 481,184 are children. Through a diverse range of interventions, the organization has provided essential aid to those in distress. Their initiatives encompass the distribution of basic food items, offering critical health and nutrition assistance, extending educational and protection support, and empowering communities with livelihood aid.

World Vision Myanmar’s commitment to long-term solutions is evident in the implementation of more than 30 Area Programmes and over 20 grants and special projects. Their tireless efforts have proven instrumental in mitigating the hardships faced by countless individuals and families, offering hope and support in the face of adversity.

USAID

In response to the escalating humanitarian crisis in Burma, the United States has stepped forward to provide crucial aid and support. An additional $50 million in humanitarian assistance is being allocated, specifically aimed at emergency food and nutrition assistance. The urgency of this aid stems from the compounding challenges of increased displacements, ongoing armed conflicts, and growing food insecurity, all of which have intensified the existing needs of the affected population.

The gravity of the situation is further highlighted by the United Nations’ newly issued Humanitarian Needs Overview, which projects that more than 17 million people in Burma, accounting for over one-third of the total population, will require humanitarian aid in 2023. This staggering figure represents a substantial increase from the fewer than one million people requiring assistance in 2020.

Save the children

Since 2001, Save the Children has established a significant partnership with the Ministry of Health in Myanmar through a memorandum of understanding. This collaboration has enabled the organization to focus its efforts on impactful initiatives primarily centered around education, health, and economic opportunities.

With a dedicated focus on targeted regions, Save the Children’s development work in Myanmar has been particularly concentrated in areas such as Ayeyarwady, Magway, Mandalay, and Yangon, as well as the states of Mon and Kayin. By strategically directing their efforts to these regions, the organization aims to maximize its positive impact and reach the most vulnerable and marginalized children and families. Save the Children’s presence in Myanmar signifies a vital force in the pursuit of enhancing the overall well-being and future prospects of children, contributing to the country’s long-term development and sustainable growth.

Myanmar’s Military Junta: Challenges, Global Isolation, and the Complex Path to Democracy

In conclusion, The military junta’s current strength is facing scrutiny as it grapples with challenges posed by the resilient opposition movement and a lack of international recognition. Both the United Nations and ASEAN have refused to acknowledge the junta as Myanmar’s official government, further isolating their position on the global stage. Despite these hurdles, the military’s deep-rooted influence in Myanmar’s structures and their unwavering desire to maintain power make the prospect of replacing them with a democratic administration a daunting and complex task that no nation seems eager to undertake.

As a result, the prevailing status quo of limited international action is expected to persist. Western countries may continue to extend symbolic gestures such as well-wishes, prayers, and sanctions, but substantive interventions remain uncertain. China and Russia, on the other hand, are likely to maintain their support by providing military assistance to Myanmar while refraining from direct involvement with troops on the ground.

However, while the path to democracy in Myanmar faces considerable challenges, it is not entirely bleak. The Tatmadaw has pledged a return to democratic elections in the future, albeit met with skepticism given the current circumstances. Nonetheless, the opposition movement has displayed resilience and strength, engaging the military in frequent clashes, indicating that the military’s control is far from assured.