| Venue: Emirates Old Trafford Date: Wednesday, 19 July Time: 11:00 BST |
| Coverage: Live text commentary and in-play video clips on the BBC Sport website & app, plus BBC Test Match Special on BBC Sounds and BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra. Daily Today at the Test highlights on BBC Two and BBC iPlayer from 19:00 BST. |
Deep breath. Go again.
The time since the end of the third Ashes Test has been the longest spell without Test cricket in this country since 1 June. Even then, we’ve had the women’s Ashes to keep blood pressure high and productivity low.
Now the men of England and Australia roll into Manchester for the fourth chapter of what could turn into the greatest Ashes story ever told.
The three previous instalments have all been heart-stoppers. If we are to define a ‘close’ Test to be won by three wickets or less, or 50 runs or less, there were 25 in 340 Ashes matches before this summer. There have since been three in three.
If that wasn’t enough, this series has also included Zak Crawley hitting the first ball for four (how long ago does that feel?), Marylebone Cricket Club members turning into England ultras and a row over Alex Carey getting his hair cut.
It therefore wouldn’t be a surprise this week to see Chris Woakes thrown out of a curry house in Rusholme, Joe Root get a tattoo in Affleck’s Palace or Usman Khawaja sign for Manchester City, citing a long-term desire to play for Pep Guardiola.
England’s scrape over the line at Headingley counts for little if they do not win at Old Trafford. They are once again ordering a drink in the Last Chance Saloon, hoping not to have to turn water into wine.
The unprecedented feat of an England team coming from 2-0 down to win an Ashes is on for now, but they could just as easily lose 4-1.
There are parallels to four years ago, when Australia bounced back from a galling defeat in Leeds to win here and retain the urn.
On that occasion, they were famously made to sit down and re-watch Ben Stokes’ heroics by coach Justin Langer to immediately exorcise the demons. This time they have used the gap to scatter to all corners over Europe. There is the nagging feeling that the break, and halt in England’s momentum, will have done the Aussies more good than the home side.
This is the last Ashes Test north of Nottingham for eight years – neither Headingley nor Old Trafford are on the schedule for the 2027 series, a move that England skipper Stokes says he is “devastated” by.
But whereas Headingley has been kind to England, Old Trafford has been anything but. Not since 1981 have they tasted victory in an Ashes Test in Manchester – they have won at the Gabba more recently.
In looking to change that unwanted record, they have recalled local boy and all-time record wicket-taker James Anderson, but even he has some history to alter. Remarkably, Anderson has never taken a Test five-for at Old Trafford and has not been on the winning side in an Ashes Test in eight years.
The hope is that the conditions are more to Anderson’s liking than the dead pitches of Edgbaston and Lord’s that rendered him impotent.
There should be some pace in the surface, albeit not as much as Headingley, and a grim weather forecast suggests helpful overheads. Indeed, it is threat of the Manchester rain that adds a crucial variable and the prospect of more drama.
Stokes, never short of a funky idea, has suggested that a weather-shortened match could play into England’s hands, his theory being they are at their best when they are dictating the pace of a game.
Last summer, admittedly against a vastly inferior South Africa side, England won the final Test at The Oval in little more than two days after one day was washed out and another cancelled following the death of the Queen.
“There might just be a few different tactical decisions to make,” said Stokes. “If there is potentially even 100 overs lost in the game, we might have to look at pressing the game on quicker than we normally would.”
While England look to be embracing the rain, Australia seem to be in a spin that has resulted in the omission of frontline spinner Todd Murphy.
Murphy, in the side at Headingley for the injured Nathan Lyon, bowled only two overs in England’s second innings and is jettisoned for fit-again all-rounder Cameron Green.
If Lyon had been fit, there would have been no question about his place, but as captain Pat Cummins tried to explain the debate over Murphy’s place, he said it was “not comparing apples with apples”.
Cummins was sitting just along from the Old Trafford honours board which, if he had looked, would have revealed that nine of the last 14 Test five-fors at Old Trafford have been taken by spinners. Not since 2012 have Australia gone into a Test without a specialist spinner.
Green and fellow all-rounder Mitchell Marsh in the same side gives Australia huge batting depth. Mitchell Starc at nine and Cummins himself at 10 makes it harder for England to take the 20 wickets they need, especially in a rain-hit match.
But with Australia only needing a draw to at least retain the Ashes, it does feel like a slightly negative move.
If the tourists felt a seamer was more use than Murphy, why not turn to a frontline option in Michael Neser, himself good enough with the bat to score hundreds in each of his past two first-class matches for Glamorgan?
If there is any hint of pragmatism or uncertainty from the Aussies, it leaves the door open for England to pounce, even if their own team has a slightly patched up look about it.
The combination they have landed on is two members of the top three with a Test average less than 30, a keeper more likely to catch a cold than an edge and a bowling attack too old to qualify for cheap life insurance.
Moeen Ali’s continued presence at number three continues a remarkable summer when he has not only come out of Test retirement, but also missed a day of training to collect his OBE, been in trouble for using a drying agent on his hand, been dropped and had a gash on his finger healed by a magic honey gel sent to him by an England fan.
Moeen stands on the cusp of a significant feat. He needs only 23 runs to become just the fourth Englishman, after Ian Botham, Andrew Flintoff and Stuart Broad, to do the Test double of 3,000 runs and 200 wickets.
Stokes also has a similar milestone in his sights. On 197 wickets, he needs three to complete an even rarer double of 200 scalps and 6,000 runs. Only Garry Sobers and Jacques Kallis, bona fide greats of the game, are members of that exclusive club. Given the state of his knee, those three wickets currently feel like an ‘if’ rather than a ‘when’.
As for Broad, he needs two wickets to reach 600 in Test cricket, joining four other men. How fitting it would be if regular bunny David Warner was number 600.
All of these are possible in front of what is likely to be another raucous crowd, bouncing up and down in an enormous temporary stand that seems only one loose bolt from crashing down in a cloud of stale beer and fancy dress.
So much going on. So much at stake.
Deep breath. Go again.