As fighters from the Wagner mercenary group head back to their bases after an aborted mutiny, Russia’s deputy foreign minister has been busy having meetings with his Chinese counterparts in Beijing.
Key points:
- Kurt Campbell says the brief uprising in Moscow would have been “unsettling” for Beijing
- Social media users referred to the Wagner chief using the names of historical Chinese rebels to evade censorship
- China and Russia rely on each other as geopolitical allies against the West
However, only a one-line press release was published after two official meetings — which made no mention of the short-lived rebellion.
“Foreign Minister Qin Gang met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Rudenko in Beijing and exchanged views with him on China-Russia relations and international and regional issues of common concern,” the statement said.
It was unclear if the meeting was planned, or a last-minute arrangement by Beijing and Moscow. No additional information about the closed-door meetings was made public.
Reaction to the developments inside Russia could hint at a possible change of dynamics between Beijing, Moscow and the West, as experts weigh in on whether China will re-evaluate its partnership with Russia.
The US Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell, speaking at a Centre for Strategic and International Studies forum in Washington, said the brief uprising would have been “unsettling” for Beijing.
“It would be fair to say that recent developments in Russia have been unsettling to the Chinese leadership,” Mr Campbell said, without elaborating.
A day after the aborted rebellion, China’s foreign ministry said the matter was “Russia’s internal affair”, and added: “As Russia’s friendly neighbour and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination for the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity.”
But as Beijing officials remained publicly tight-lipped about the incident, it was a different story on Chinese social media, where users were finding creative ways to talk about what was unfolding in Russia.
How did the mutiny play out on Chinese social media?
Over the weekend, a flurry of social media posts flooded Weibo — China’s version of Twitter — questioning whether the mercenary group’s actions could bring changes to the war in Ukraine.
Others wondered how a successful mutiny in Russia could affect China.
Dr Yang Han, a former Chinese diplomat, suggested although there was censorship over the online discussion, there were probably too many posts — and they were too creative — for Chinese censors to remove them all.
For example, people frequently used an historical Chinese rebel’s name to refer to mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Initially, they used the name “An Lushan”, an 8th-century general who was mainly known for his rebellion in China’s Tang Dynasty, in place of the name of the Wagner Group’s chief.
But later, when the mutiny was aborted, social media users mocked Mr Prigozhin’s rapid about-face by referring to him as “Song Jiang”, a 12th-century rebel who eventually surrendered to the Chinese Imperial Court.
“It’s more free to discuss Chinese ancient history. Chinese people have been making fun of those names all over the weekend,” Dr Yang said.
The hashtag “Putin accuses Wagner head of treason” had a whopping 2.4 billion views on Weibo, while the hashtag “China states that the Wagner Group incident is Russia’s internal affair” had more than 150 million clicks.
One post, which received a lot of criticism and didn’t reflect the mainstream view on the site, spoke of potential geopolitical ramifications: “If they truly move toward Moscow, there’s a chance that war will be right next to our border … It would be difficult for China to remain unaffected in such a situation.”
But the government’s official view was also reflected online. Some 60 Chinese state media outlets have posted about the country’s non-interference stance over the short-lived mutiny in Russia.
As the fighters pulled back, Chinese media started to promote a trending video story from the Kremlin on how Russian President Vladimir Putin handled the “rebellion” from the Kremlin.
Many Weibo comments showed support for Mr Putin’s government.
“As long as Putin is there for one day, no unrest will succeed in Russia,” user Cbanzuo wrote.
Will China re-think Russia relations?
China has not condemned the war in Ukraine, has abstained from United Nations votes on the conflict, and has maintained strong ties with its BRICS partner since the invasion.
Trade between the two nations has also surged significantly — reaching a record $US190 billion ($283 billion) last year, as Russia faces punishing economic sanctions from the West.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mr Putin also pledged to boost that number to $US200 billion this year, and the countries have referred to their relationship as a “no limits” partnership.
Beijing has also pitched itself as a potential peace-maker, but Kyiv has said it won’t accept any proposal that involved a loss of Ukrainian territory.
Meanwhile, Chinese officials are having high-level meetings with their counterparts in the West.
The mutiny came as Chinese Premier Li Qiang returned to Beijing, wrapping up his diplomatic debut in Europe.
Mr Li had a series of bilateral meetings in Germany and France, and the United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Mr Xi in Beijing last week.
Mr Xi hasn’t held any official dialogue with his Russian counterpart after his official visit to Moscow last March.
Jiang Yuan, an expert on China-Russia relations from the Queensland University of Technology, believes China might re-think the relationship with Russia.
“Beijing might re-evaluate the value in its cooperation with Russia, especially in terms of how strengthening cooperation with Russia will affect its relations with the EU,” he said.
“As China’s economy is not doing quite well right now, China’s relationship with the EU seems more important.
“Russia’s influence is going down.”
Dr Jiang said while China doesn’t want to risk the possibility of having a government in Russia closer to the West, it will have to re-adjust its foreign policy towards Russia.
“China definitely doesn’t want Putin’s government to go down,” he said, but added that Russia’s influence is fading while China’s is growing, pointing to a summit Beijing hosted with Central Asian nations in May.
“It’s hard to imagine that 10 years ago, for example, Beijing could have held a summit between China and Central Asia without any concern for Russia’s feelings.”
Dr Alexander Korolev, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at the University of New South Wales, said China’s reaction to the mutiny showed Beijing isn’t too pre-occupied about what happens inside Russia.
“The mere fact that Xi Jinping didn’t reach out to Putin shows they didn’t pay much attention to what was happening in Russia,” Dr Korolev said.
He said China and Russia needed each other and he doubted there would be much change in their diplomatic relationship — especially if China was unwilling to change its stance on Taiwan and develop its relations with the US further.
“China does need a powerful partner. China doesn’t really have any allies … The significance of the strategic partnership with Russia will not disappear,” he said.
“This relationship is predominantly driven by factors outside of Russia.
“It doesn’t really matter who runs the country [Russia], as long as the external circumstances don’t change, states have a tendency to behave in the same way.”
ABC/Reuters