Fri. Nov 22nd, 2024
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As fighters from the Wagner mercenary group head back to their bases after an aborted mutiny, Russia’s deputy foreign minister has been busy having meetings with his Chinese counterparts in Beijing.

However, only a one-line press release was published after two official meetings — which made no mention of the short-lived rebellion. 

“Foreign Minister Qin Gang met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Rudenko in Beijing and exchanged views with him on China-Russia relations and international and regional issues of common concern,” the statement said.

It was unclear if the meeting was planned, or a last-minute arrangement by Beijing and Moscow. No additional information about the closed-door meetings was made public.

Reaction to the developments inside Russia could hint at a possible change of dynamics between Beijing, Moscow and the West, as experts weigh in on whether China will re-evaluate its partnership with Russia.

The US Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell, speaking at a Centre for Strategic and International Studies forum in Washington, said the brief uprising would have been “unsettling” for Beijing.

“It would be fair to say that recent developments in Russia have been unsettling to the Chinese leadership,” Mr Campbell said, without elaborating.

A day after the aborted rebellion, China’s foreign ministry said the matter was “Russia’s internal affair”, and added: “As Russia’s friendly neighbour and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination for the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity.”

But as Beijing officials remained publicly tight-lipped about the incident, it was a different story on Chinese social media, where users were finding creative ways to talk about what was unfolding in Russia. 

How did the mutiny play out on Chinese social media?

Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves the headquarters of the Southern Military District.()

Over the weekend, a flurry of social media posts flooded Weibo — China’s version of Twitter — questioning whether the mercenary group’s actions could bring changes to the war in Ukraine. 

Others wondered how a successful mutiny in Russia could affect China.

Dr Yang Han, a former Chinese diplomat, suggested although there was censorship over the online discussion, there were probably too many posts — and they were too creative — for Chinese censors to remove them all. 

For example, people frequently used an historical Chinese rebel’s name to refer to mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Initially, they used the name “An Lushan”, an 8th-century general who was mainly known for his rebellion in China’s Tang Dynasty, in place of the name of the Wagner Group’s chief.

But later, when the mutiny was aborted, social media users mocked Mr Prigozhin’s rapid about-face by referring to him as “Song Jiang”, a 12th-century rebel who eventually surrendered to the Chinese Imperial Court. 

“It’s more free to discuss Chinese ancient history. Chinese people have been making fun of those names all over the weekend,” Dr Yang said. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses the nation after mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin called for armed rebellion.()

The hashtag “Putin accuses Wagner head of treason” had a whopping 2.4 billion views on Weibo, while the hashtag “China states that the Wagner Group incident is Russia’s internal affair” had more than 150 million clicks.

One post, which received a lot of criticism and didn’t reflect the mainstream view on the site, spoke of potential geopolitical ramifications: “If they truly move toward Moscow, there’s a chance that war will be right next to our border … It would be difficult for China to remain unaffected in such a situation.” 

But the government’s official view was also reflected online. Some 60 Chinese state media outlets have posted about the country’s non-interference stance over the short-lived mutiny in Russia.

As the fighters pulled back, Chinese media started to promote a trending video story from the Kremlin on how Russian President Vladimir Putin handled the “rebellion” from the Kremlin.

Many Weibo comments showed support for Mr Putin’s government.

“As long as Putin is there for one day, no unrest will succeed in Russia,” user Cbanzuo wrote.

Will China re-think Russia relations?

China showed support to Russia’s government after the short-lived mutiny.()

China has not condemned the war in Ukraine, has abstained from United Nations votes on the conflict, and has maintained strong ties with its BRICS partner since the invasion.

Trade between the two nations has also surged significantly — reaching a record $US190 billion ($283 billion) last year, as Russia faces punishing economic sanctions from the West.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mr Putin also pledged to boost that number to $US200 billion this year, and the countries have referred to their relationship as a “no limits” partnership.

Beijing has also pitched itself as a potential peace-maker, but Kyiv has said it won’t accept any proposal that involved a loss of Ukrainian territory. 

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