And at the draft, which I’ll be attending in New York City next week, there’s a buzz of optimism that anyone picked can make a huge difference. And yes, that’s technically true, but as you’d expect, Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the exceptions. The best players usually get picked at the top.

That’s why I decided to take on this project, looking back at every player picked at each spot 1-60 to see which I consider to be the best draft choices.

The all-time NBA draft

First, a quick mention to my methodology. Things can get a little confusing because the draft hasn’t always been 60 picks split through two rounds (this year, there’s 58 because of forfeited picks due to tampering violations).

I tried to note when a player was the “17^th overall pick” but actually a second-round selection

I also tried to make this more than just the “best player” picked … which I’ll have to explain right off the bat. In some instances, like deep in the second round where players were commonly released, sometimes this was impossible because the other options were so much worse.

Draft night trades are noted in parentheses.

THE LIST

1. Magic Johnson, 1979, Lakers

Better players have been picked first overall — LeBron James is at the top of that list — but Cleveland one won title after taking James and it happened on his second trip through the Land. Magic kickstarted a decade of Lakers dominance, established the NBA as a league of stars and won from his first year in the league on.

2. Bill Russell, 1956, St. Louis Hawks (acquired by Boston)

3. Michael Jordan, 1984, Chicago Bulls

4. Chris Paul, 2005, New Orleans Hornets

One of the first slots where there’s an actual decision to be made. Hall of Famers from the NBA’s early era — Dolph Schayes and Bob Cousy — were picked fourth. So were Rick Barry, Dikembe Mutombo, Dave Cowens and Dave DeBusschere. And while Russell Westbrook won an MVP, Paul is the pick here for a few reasons — he established both New Orleans and Oklahoma City (as a rookie because of Hurricane Katrina) as viable NBA markets while becoming one of the best point guards in league history.

5. Scottie Pippen, 1987, Seattle Supersonics (acquired by Chicago)

Nudged him past Dwyane Wade, who has a real argument here. Pippen is one of the great two-way wings of all time and an indispensable piece to six championships. Kevin Garnett is probably the best player to be drafted fifth, ^{but he didn’t win until he left Minnesota. Charles Barkley is right there too. A lot of talent at No. 5.}

6. Larry Bird, 1978, Boston Celtics

7. Stephen Curry, 2009, Golden State Warriors,

8. Sam Jones, 1957, Boston Celtics

Lots of recent misses at No. 8 (Marquese Chriss, Stanley Johnson and Nik Stauskas were picked eighth ^{in consecutive seasons). Sam Jones is one of the all-time greats who probably doesn’t get remembered enough.}

9. Dirk Nowitzki, 1998, Milwaukee Bucks (acquired by Dallas)

10. Paul Pierce, 1998, Boston Celtics

11. Reggie Miller, 1987, Indiana Pacers

12. Cedric Maxwell, 1977, Boston Celtics

So, the Bucks took Julius Erving with the 12^th pick, but he was playing in the ABA and the Bucks never used those rights. After him, the pickings are pretty slim with “Cornbread,” a Finals MVP, ahead of Mookie Blaylock and Thaddeus Young.

13. Kobe Bryant, 1996, Charlotte Hornets (acquired by Lakers)

Karl Malone also was the 13^th pick, but Bryant’s the better player.

14. Clyde Drexler, 1983, Portland Trail Blazers

15. Giannis Antetokounmpo, 2013, Milwaukee Bucks

Steve Nash and Kawhi Leonard round out the medalist stand at No. 15.

16. John Stockton, 1984, Utah Jazz

17. Richie Guerin, 1954, New York Knicks

Shawn Kemp is the best player taken 17^th in the first, but the best 17^th overall pick is Guerin to the Knicks.

18. Joe Dumars, 1985, Detroit Pistons

19. Nate “Tiny” Archibald, 1970, Cincinnati Royals

Actually the second pick of the second round in the 1970 draft. The best first-rounder is either Zach Randolph, Rod Strickland or Tobias Harris.

20. Larry Nance, 1981, Phoenix Suns

21. Rajon Rondo, 2006, Phoenix Suns (acquired by Boston)

This pick originally belonged to the Lakers and moved through Boston and Atlanta before landing in Phoenix, which traded it back to Boston.

22. Norm Nixon, 1977, Lakers

23. A.C. Green, 1985, Lakers

The Lakers’ relationship with stars is well-documented but its dynasty was really supported by picks such as Nixon and Green. Nixon, of course, turned into Byron Scott, but these were key players taken in the 20s, which you can see, isn’t the most fertile ground. Alex English is the better 23^rd pick, but he left the Bucks after two so-so seasons.

24. Kyle Lowry, 2006, Memphis Grizzlies

25. Mark Price, 1986, Dallas Mavericks (acquired by Cleveland)

26. Vlade Divac, 1989, Lakers

27. Dennis Rodman, 1986, Detroit Pistons

28. Tony Parker, 2001, San Antonio Spurs

29. Dennis Johnson, 1976, Seattle SuperSonics

In the 28 years there has been a 29^th pick in the first round, the Spurs have hit on Dejounte Murray AND Derrick White, but D.J. is the best in this spot.

30. Jimmy Butler, 2011, Chicago Bulls

31. Danny Ainge, 1981, Boston Celtics

32. Rashard Lewis, 1998, Seattle SuperSonics

33. Jalen Brunson, 2018, Dallas Mavericks.

34. Norm Van Lier, 1969, Chicago Bulls

35. Draymond Green, 2012, Golden State Warriors

36. Maurice Cheeks, 1978, Philadelphia 76ers

37. Nick Van Exel, 1993, Lakers

38. Mehmet Okur, 2002, Detroit Pistons.

Louie Dampier is the only Hall of Famer picked 38^th overall, but he began his career in the ABA.

39. Khris Middleton, 2012, Detroit Pistons

40. Monta Ellis, 2005, Golden State

41. Nikola Jokic, 2014, Denver Nuggets

42. Daniel Gibson, 2006, Cleveland Cavaliers

Maybe the worst slot in the top 50 when it comes to success rate. Gibson played for the Cavs in the Finals. Zaza Pachulia played only one season for the Magic and Patrick Beverley, also picked 42^nd, went overseas before resurfacing with Houston, which didn’t pick him.

43. Michael Redd, 2000, Milwaukee Bucks

44. Malik Rose, 1996, Charlotte Hornets

45. Bob Dandridge, 1969, Milwaukee Bucks

46. Jeff Hornacek, 1986, Phoenix Suns

47. Paul Millsap, 2006, Utah Jazz

Actually some good players picked here — Mo Williams, Gerald Wilkins and Vernon Maxwell at the top of the list below Millsap. The Lakers have 47 in the upcoming draft in addition to 17 in the first.

48. Cedric Ceballos, 1990, Phoenix Suns,

Marc Gasol is the best 48^th pick, but his value to the Lakers as a draft pick was a minor piece in a deal for his brother Pau before he played in the NBA.

49. Eddie Johnson, 1977, Atlanta Hawks

50. Steve Kerr, 1988, Phoenix Suns

51. Kyle Korver, 2003, New Jersey Nets (acquired by Philadelphia)

52. Fred Hoiberg, 1995, Indiana Pacers

53. Anthony Mason, 1988, Portland Trail Blazers

54. Shandon Anderson, 1996, Utah Jazz

55. Patty Mills, 2009, Portland Trail Blazers

56. Luis Scola, 2002, San Antonio Spurs

57. Manu Ginobili, 1999, San Antonio Spurs

58. Kurt Rambis, 1980, New York Knicks

59. Pat Cummings, 1978, Milwaukee Bucks

Along with pick No. 42, this is the worst spot to draft by my research. The options in the second round are way worse, especially now with players preferring in many cases to go undrafted so they can enter the league as free agents.

60. Isaiah Thomas, 2011, Sacramento Kings

So, what did we learn from this list? I’m not sure. I think the lesson is probably that it’s wasted energy getting all that excited about draft picks outside of the top 15 because the hit rates are really low. But, like Nikola Jokic just proved, it’s not impossible to find some diamonds in the rough.

Song of the Week

“Running With Our Eyes Closed” by Jason Isbell at the 400 Unit

The documentary with the same name was a terrific watch for the most part, and I’m fulfilling my duty as a sportswriter by talking about Jason Isbell. Drafting, it turns out, can be just like running with your eyes closed.

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