As Trump becomes the first former U.S. president to face federal charges that could put him in prison, many Europeans are watching the case closely. But hardly a single world leader has said a thing recently about the man leading the race for the Republican nomination.
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, named 2019 Diplomat of the Year by Foreign Policy Magazine for helping the alliance navigate an “uncertain future” during the Trump years, was recently asked about the Republican’s campaign for a second term — and quickly changed the topic to the TV series “The Crown.”
It’s not that the global public isn’t interested. The former president’s court appearance grabbed headlines and figured prominently on newscasts in much of Europe.
In New Zealand, people “are watching the Trump circus with the same sense of horror and fascination that marked his last days in office” in early 2021 when his supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol, said David Capie, a professor of international relations at Victoria University of Wellington.
Few European leaders would welcome Trump’s reelection. His climate, trade and security policies clashed with European interests and sensibilities, and many fear he would withdraw robust U.S. support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.
“The whole world has the same concern. We hope that the U.S. election restores a bit of rationality,” said José Pio Borges, president of the Brazilian Center for International Relations think tank. “Not that we have great appreciation for Biden, but there is no comparison.”
In other distant parts of the world, like China and India, the trial passed by with much less notice.
But a minority of world leaders is openly cheering for Trump to make a comeback. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban backed him in 2016, and has said the Ukraine war wouldn’t be happening if Trump were president. In a speech last month, Orban implored: “Come back, Mr. President! Make America great again, and bring us peace!”
The nature of the charges against Trump matter to allied leaders. Prosecutors allege he was reckless with classified information, including secrets shared by or about intelligence partners.
“Were Donald Trump to be elected president, then absolutely, there will be certain governments that are going to be concerned,” said Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the U.S. and Americas Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House. She said the current case was “very clear evidence … of his willingness to play fast and loose with secret and top-secret documents.”
With allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and as far away as Australia and New Zealand, the United States has a dense network of military security cooperation deals that require secrecy, due diligence and trust in exchanging sensitive information.
The indictment alleges that Trump intentionally retained hundreds of classified documents after leaving office in January 2021, and then stored them in cardboard boxes in locations including a bathroom, a ballroom and a bedroom at his Florida estate. The documents contained information on nuclear programs, defense and weapons capabilities of the U.S. and foreign governments, and a Pentagon “attack plan,” prosecutors wrote.
“It’s so far beyond the pale of the imagination of most people who work in intelligence that … you know, you do have to sort of laugh. But it’s obviously very grave, very serious,” Vinjamuri told the Associated Press.
Even as government officials have avoided speaking on the record about the sensitive issues surrounding Trump’s case, it’s clear that most U.S. allies, especially in Europe, have embraced Biden as their best hope to rekindle alliances and build cooperation to contain climate change.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created Europe’s biggest crisis in decades, and many European nations have stood with Biden in facing Russian President Vladimir Putin and slapping sanctions on the Kremlin.
The war has even driven reassessments in some nations that were once inclined toward Trump’s worldview.
In Poland, the nationalist conservative government did not hide its admiration for Trump when he was elected, and agreed with him on issues including opposition to large-scale migration, especially by Muslims. Polish President Andrzej Duda said in 2017 that if the U.S. were to set up a base in his country, it would be called Ft. Trump, and Duda was one of the last world leaders to congratulate Biden after his election victory in 2020.
But Duda and others are grateful for Biden’s assurances to Poland, and for his two visits to Warsaw since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine itself has received vital aid from the Biden administration, and has shown no interest in commenting on his political rival. President Volodymyr Zelensky tried not to take sides during Trump’s first impeachment saga despite playing a central role in it, much as he has welcomed China’s peace plan for the conflict despite widespread perceptions that it favors Moscow.
But this time, European leaders are keeping their opinions about Trump to themselves.
“One of the most interesting questions here in the United Kingdom, across Europe and elsewhere, is: What are Europeans doing to prepare for the possibility that Donald Trump could return to the White House? And I think the reality is, not a lot right now,” Vinjamuri said.
Tusk, the former EU leader, is running for election this fall to lead Poland. As a prime minister, the last thing he would want is to pick another fight with a Donald.
AP writers from across the globe contributed.