The United Nations warned of “grave and far-reaching consequences” for thousands of Ukrainians following the massive dam breach in a Russian-controlled area of Kherson, but as the war slogged on both sides faced setbacks from the disaster.
And each side accused the other of blowing up the dam.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, theorized that the Russians have more to gain from the flooding despite damage to their own defensive positions. The breach could cover a possible retreat and delay Ukraine’s offensive, the institute said in its assessment.
Zev Faintuch, senior intelligence analyst at the international security firm Global Guardian, told USA TODAY the flooding complicates any mechanized effort by the Ukraine military to cross the Dnieper River that separates the combatants. Ukraine forces will be hindered in efforts to rapidly maneuver southwest to recapture the crucial, Russian-held city of Melitopol, he said.
Faintuch, whose firm has evacuated thousands of Ukrainians since the war began and retains personnel in country, said the flooding also allows Russia to divert some forces away from Kherson and concentrate in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions. The Ukraine military said Wednesday that Russian forces already had retreated a few miles from the area around the dam − but continued to shell the swamped city of Kherson.
“They searched those areas of Kherson that were flooded,” military spokesperson Nataliya Gumenyuk said Wednesday on Ukrainian TV. “They fired at the shopping center, perceiving it as a hub where (people) can gather for help.”
The floodwaters could help channel Ukraine forces into some areas where Russian forces have dug in − buying the Kremlin more time, Faintuch said.
“This is an attritional war for Russia, which thinks it can outlast Kyiv with its superior ability to manufacture artillery and quantitative advantage in potential manpower,” Faintuch said.
But Russia also will feel the impact, he said, by curbing access to drinking water in Crimea, which Russia has occupied since 2014.
“Long term, this will make Crimea harder to live in for civilians and make the military installations … more vulnerable,” he said.
Developments:
∙ Ukraine accused Russia of blowing up the dam wall, while Russia blamed Ukrainian shelling. But accidental disaster had not been ruled out − the dam was already in disrepair, vulnerable to collapse and had produced no power since November, according to local authorities.
∙ At least 20,000 homes and businesses remained without electricity, 129 transformer substations were flooded in Kherson, and two solar power plants were flooded in Mykolayiv, Ukraine’s energy ministry reported Wednesday.
Land mines threaten residents fleeing floods
Experts worry landmines placed around the dam earlier in the conflict are now floating loose, as people on the river’s left bank in the Kherson region remain stranded on rooftops. About 1,800 houses have been flooded, according to the Atlanta-based international aid group CARE, which has teams on the ground. An explosion destroyed the dam early Tuesday morning, sending a wall of floodwaters downstream.
“We are very worried about the catastrophic consequences this explosion could have on the environment,” Fabrice Martin, the country director of CARE Ukraine said in a statement. “At least 150 tons of oil have been released into the Dnipro River with the risk of further leakage of more than 300 tons. This may lead to the Nyzhniodniprovskyi National Nature Park to disappear, which is more than (300 square miles) of protected land.”
− Trevor Hughes
Visual storyHow destruction of vital Ukraine dam unleashed floods that threaten thousands
At least 16,000 left homeless
Authorities and rescue workers on both sides Wednesday stepped up efforts to pull residents to higher ground. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said at least 16,000 people have lost homes. Vladimir Leontyev, the Russia-installed mayor of the occupied city of Nova Kakhovka, said seven people were missing.
Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of Kherson Regional Military administration, said in a video the “intensity of the floods was slightly decreasing.” Even so, authorities said water levels were expected to rise and engulf more downriver areas along the banks of the Dnieper River.
In an intelligence updated posted on Twitter, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said the dam structure itself was “likely to deteriorate further over the next few days, causing additional flooding.”
Satellite images show towns submerged, structures swept away and flood waters surging toward the Black Sea. In some communities, residents spent the night on rooftops or perched on trees awaiting rescue. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Wednesday “hundreds of thousands” have been left without access to drinking water.
The U.N.’s humanitarian aid chief Martin Griffiths said the scale of the catastrophe will only become clear in the coming days.
Zelenskyy accused Russia of ‘ecocide’
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the dam’s destruction as a Russian war crime, accusing the Kremlin’s forces of “ecocide” for detonating” an environmental bomb of mass destruction.” He said Russia has controlled the area around the dam for more than a year, making it impossible for Ukraine to have caused the damage. Hundreds of thousands of people have been left without normal access to drinking water, he said, adding that Ukrainian services can only help on the territory controlled by Ukraine.
“On the part occupied by Russia, the occupiers are not even trying to help people,” he said.
Russia blames Ukraine, calls for international investigation
U.S. intelligence is pointing to Russia being behind an apparent assault on the dam, NBC News reported. The dam is situated in a territory held by Russian forces on the Dnipro River. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called for an international investigation into the cause of the dam collapse and blasted the West for assuming Russia was to blame.
“The reaction of the West in all such situations is 100% predictable,” Zakharova told Russian state media. “It is an endless desire to blame Russia for everything that happens, regardless of whether it actually happened or is a figment of the imagination.”
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused Ukraine of “deliberate sabotage” and said the Kyiv regime should bear full responsibility.
New power plant will be built ‘very quickly’
Ihor Syrota, head of the state-owned Ukrhydroenergo power company, said the peak of water spillage was expected today. The situation then will begin to stabilize, and in 4-5 days the water will begin to recede, he said. The power plant, however, is a total loss. Additional wells will be drilled in Kherson and Mykolaiv regions to provide fresh water.
“The hydraulic structures are being eroded and we understand that we will have to build a new station very quickly,” Syrota said. “We will build a more beautiful and powerful plant on the same site.”
Contributing: The Associated Press